Matt G
@falconer18.bsky.social
Poli Sci Prof. Maps, ice hockey, LEGO, elections, voting, history, US South, cats, Red Wings, rugby, EPL. Emory PhD. Hillsdale BA. Visited 60% of US counties. Former Atlanta Thrashers blogger. Fitted hat enthusiast 7-3/8.
My version out of 100,000 LEGO parts
September 9, 2025 at 11:57 AM
My version out of 100,000 LEGO parts
Trump is getting beaten up on the economy, but his net approval on immigration remains positive (thus far). Democrats should feature the economy in their message. Trump has much more popular support on immigration, and attacking him on this issue may help reinforce his tough guy reputation.
April 16, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Trump is getting beaten up on the economy, but his net approval on immigration remains positive (thus far). Democrats should feature the economy in their message. Trump has much more popular support on immigration, and attacking him on this issue may help reinforce his tough guy reputation.
The swing maps of MI, WI, and PA show how little swing there was between elections. Suburbs in MI and PA moved slightly right, but the big story is now little change there is between 2020 and 2024.
November 6, 2024 at 12:30 PM
The swing maps of MI, WI, and PA show how little swing there was between elections. Suburbs in MI and PA moved slightly right, but the big story is now little change there is between 2020 and 2024.
Here is the % swing map. The most important thing is how few counties saw a swing of 3% or more. Most of GA voted nearly identical to 2020 in terms of which party they supported. Again, it was turnout, not swing that flipped Georgia.
November 6, 2024 at 11:30 AM
Here is the % swing map. The most important thing is how few counties saw a swing of 3% or more. Most of GA voted nearly identical to 2020 in terms of which party they supported. Again, it was turnout, not swing that flipped Georgia.
In Georgia, it wasn't about counties swinging, it was about turnout. Harris received the exact % in the 29 counties Biden won (66%) Trump's % was flat in the 130 counties he carried in 2020. The difference was turnout. Turnout in Biden counties rose 1%. Turnout in Trump counties rose 9%.
November 6, 2024 at 11:08 AM
In Georgia, it wasn't about counties swinging, it was about turnout. Harris received the exact % in the 29 counties Biden won (66%) Trump's % was flat in the 130 counties he carried in 2020. The difference was turnout. Turnout in Biden counties rose 1%. Turnout in Trump counties rose 9%.
Recent surveys of Georgia have asked if people have already voted and Harris has a substantial lead among those early voters. Historically Democrats have been more likely to vote early than Republicans, but the party gap has shrunk this cycle as Republicans encouraged their supporters to vote early.
November 2, 2024 at 8:18 PM
Recent surveys of Georgia have asked if people have already voted and Harris has a substantial lead among those early voters. Historically Democrats have been more likely to vote early than Republicans, but the party gap has shrunk this cycle as Republicans encouraged their supporters to vote early.
Here’s the backside. Not based on any real-world buildings. I just had fun. Each porch is unique.
November 2, 2024 at 1:21 PM
Here’s the backside. Not based on any real-world buildings. I just had fun. Each porch is unique.
I make architectural replicas out of LEGO.
November 2, 2024 at 5:29 AM
I make architectural replicas out of LEGO.
One last map. How is Week 3 of early voting shaping up. Well outer suburbs of metro ATL are leading turnout and rural south GA/Black Black is slower than the statewide pace. (Some of these central GA counties are majority Black, others majority White).
October 31, 2024 at 2:32 PM
One last map. How is Week 3 of early voting shaping up. Well outer suburbs of metro ATL are leading turnout and rural south GA/Black Black is slower than the statewide pace. (Some of these central GA counties are majority Black, others majority White).
@gtryan
compared EV turnout by race. All races have increased but the small increase among Black voters relative to white voters is why I estimate GOP has a sizable lead among early voters. The big question will Democrats close that deficit in the remaining days?
compared EV turnout by race. All races have increased but the small increase among Black voters relative to white voters is why I estimate GOP has a sizable lead among early voters. The big question will Democrats close that deficit in the remaining days?
October 31, 2024 at 2:07 PM
@gtryan
compared EV turnout by race. All races have increased but the small increase among Black voters relative to white voters is why I estimate GOP has a sizable lead among early voters. The big question will Democrats close that deficit in the remaining days?
compared EV turnout by race. All races have increased but the small increase among Black voters relative to white voters is why I estimate GOP has a sizable lead among early voters. The big question will Democrats close that deficit in the remaining days?
@gtryan site georgiavotes.com splits out Early Voters into Repeat EV, Shifted to EV, New Voters (didn't vote in 2020). Here is a map of where those New Voters are more common. Metro and North GA and the Coast are where we are seeing more New Voter turnout.
October 31, 2024 at 1:50 PM
@gtryan site georgiavotes.com splits out Early Voters into Repeat EV, Shifted to EV, New Voters (didn't vote in 2020). Here is a map of where those New Voters are more common. Metro and North GA and the Coast are where we are seeing more New Voter turnout.
Day 16 of Early Voting is done. 1st map shows 2024 EV turnout compared to 2020 Total Votes. 2nd map is 2024 EV compared to 2024 "Active Voters" (people who have cast a ballot in recent elections. I think the 1st map is better because the baseline is a tied vote.
October 31, 2024 at 1:46 PM
Day 16 of Early Voting is done. 1st map shows 2024 EV turnout compared to 2020 Total Votes. 2nd map is 2024 EV compared to 2024 "Active Voters" (people who have cast a ballot in recent elections. I think the 1st map is better because the baseline is a tied vote.
Some Kemp Republicans split their ticket and voted for Warnock (1st map). They were concentrated in densely populated counties. Other Kemp Republicans voted Libertarian or just skipped the Senate race (2nd map). Abstainer GOPers were in the north.
October 30, 2024 at 10:52 PM
Some Kemp Republicans split their ticket and voted for Warnock (1st map). They were concentrated in densely populated counties. Other Kemp Republicans voted Libertarian or just skipped the Senate race (2nd map). Abstainer GOPers were in the north.
In 2022 GA reelected a more old-school GOP Governor Kemp but MAGA-adjacent GOP Senate candidate Walker was forced into a run-off (which he lost). A large chunk of moderate GOPers didn't vote for Walker. If Harris carries GA in 2024 we might see a similar pattern.
October 30, 2024 at 10:50 PM
In 2022 GA reelected a more old-school GOP Governor Kemp but MAGA-adjacent GOP Senate candidate Walker was forced into a run-off (which he lost). A large chunk of moderate GOPers didn't vote for Walker. If Harris carries GA in 2024 we might see a similar pattern.
We are in Week 3 of Early Voting in Georgia, which means that total turnout is pretty stable and doesn't change much from day to day. One significant change is that heavily Democratic Fulton County climbed into the top 1/3 in turnout! Let me explain the two maps below.
October 30, 2024 at 4:21 PM
We are in Week 3 of Early Voting in Georgia, which means that total turnout is pretty stable and doesn't change much from day to day. One significant change is that heavily Democratic Fulton County climbed into the top 1/3 in turnout! Let me explain the two maps below.
We have 2 full weeks of early voting in GA. Week 1 saw 34% of the 2020 elecorate turnout. Week 2 saw 27% turnout, a drop of 6.5%. Most counties fell, the brown ones fell more than average. The gray ones fell but less than average. Green actrually grew turnout in Week 2.
October 29, 2024 at 2:21 PM
We have 2 full weeks of early voting in GA. Week 1 saw 34% of the 2020 elecorate turnout. Week 2 saw 27% turnout, a drop of 6.5%. Most counties fell, the brown ones fell more than average. The gray ones fell but less than average. Green actrually grew turnout in Week 2.
2018 and 2024. Similarities: NE GA leads both cycles. Augusta and Albany lag both cycles. Suburban ATL lags both. Difference: Fulton and South metro suburbs look more like 2022 than 2018. I'll need to think it over some more.
October 28, 2024 at 4:53 PM
2018 and 2024. Similarities: NE GA leads both cycles. Augusta and Albany lag both cycles. Suburban ATL lags both. Difference: Fulton and South metro suburbs look more like 2022 than 2018. I'll need to think it over some more.
Sunday was a good day for Harris campaign as most of rural GA doesn't early vote and metro ATL does. Fulton became the first strong Dem state to crack the top 1/3. Dems gained about 10k votes which made up for Saturday. But Dem voting areas still have a big gap they need to close.
October 28, 2024 at 1:09 PM
Sunday was a good day for Harris campaign as most of rural GA doesn't early vote and metro ATL does. Fulton became the first strong Dem state to crack the top 1/3. Dems gained about 10k votes which made up for Saturday. But Dem voting areas still have a big gap they need to close.
To help you out, Fulton wasn't in the top 1/3 of counties in terms of total 2020 turnout. On Saturday (map 1) Fulton hadn't crack the top 1/3 of turnout in GA, but after Sunday (map 2) it had. Unfortunately most of metro ATL hasn't yet. Harris will need DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett to vote.
October 28, 2024 at 1:06 PM
To help you out, Fulton wasn't in the top 1/3 of counties in terms of total 2020 turnout. On Saturday (map 1) Fulton hadn't crack the top 1/3 of turnout in GA, but after Sunday (map 2) it had. Unfortunately most of metro ATL hasn't yet. Harris will need DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett to vote.
Here is the data. In 2020 and also in 2022 counties with larger populations had higher percentage of their votes cast before election day than smaller (rural) counties.
October 28, 2024 at 2:42 AM
Here is the data. In 2020 and also in 2022 counties with larger populations had higher percentage of their votes cast before election day than smaller (rural) counties.
New York metro area. Trump gains in the Bronx.
October 25, 2024 at 3:26 PM
New York metro area. Trump gains in the Bronx.
Los Angeles: Compton voted Democratic, but the margin shrank.
October 25, 2024 at 3:25 PM
Los Angeles: Compton voted Democratic, but the margin shrank.
Philadelphia, PA. Similar Pattern.
October 25, 2024 at 3:24 PM
Philadelphia, PA. Similar Pattern.