Michal Fabinger
@fabinger.bsky.social
Ask me any questions about AI/ML, economics, biology, physics, math, statistics, or health & nutrition. I spent a lot of time thinking about these.
Vedian College, Acalonia, Charles Univ. Prev.: Stanford, Princeton IAS, Harvard, Penn State, Univ. of Tokyo
Vedian College, Acalonia, Charles Univ. Prev.: Stanford, Princeton IAS, Harvard, Penn State, Univ. of Tokyo
Congratulations, Surya!
This is super cool both regarding the research directions and the people involved!
This is super cool both regarding the research directions and the people involved!
August 19, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Congratulations, Surya!
This is super cool both regarding the research directions and the people involved!
This is super cool both regarding the research directions and the people involved!
10. Conclusion 🌐
History consistently shows that tariff wars usually backfire, harming global prosperity. Carefully crafted cooperation and trade agreements have repeatedly proven more beneficial.
(Image credits: Wikipedia and Our World in Data)
History consistently shows that tariff wars usually backfire, harming global prosperity. Carefully crafted cooperation and trade agreements have repeatedly proven more beneficial.
(Image credits: Wikipedia and Our World in Data)
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
10. Conclusion 🌐
History consistently shows that tariff wars usually backfire, harming global prosperity. Carefully crafted cooperation and trade agreements have repeatedly proven more beneficial.
(Image credits: Wikipedia and Our World in Data)
History consistently shows that tariff wars usually backfire, harming global prosperity. Carefully crafted cooperation and trade agreements have repeatedly proven more beneficial.
(Image credits: Wikipedia and Our World in Data)
9. Africa's Growing Integration 🌍📈
Historically, tariffs and limited infrastructure restricted trade within Africa. Recently, regional agreements like ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) have sought to lower tariffs and boost intra-African trade.
Historically, tariffs and limited infrastructure restricted trade within Africa. Recently, regional agreements like ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) have sought to lower tariffs and boost intra-African trade.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
9. Africa's Growing Integration 🌍📈
Historically, tariffs and limited infrastructure restricted trade within Africa. Recently, regional agreements like ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) have sought to lower tariffs and boost intra-African trade.
Historically, tariffs and limited infrastructure restricted trade within Africa. Recently, regional agreements like ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) have sought to lower tariffs and boost intra-African trade.
8. Asia’s Tariff Revolution 🚢🌏📊
Asia's growth miracle—particularly Japan, South Korea, and China—was driven by reduced tariffs and export-focused strategies. Lower barriers helped transform these economies and lift millions from poverty.
Asia's growth miracle—particularly Japan, South Korea, and China—was driven by reduced tariffs and export-focused strategies. Lower barriers helped transform these economies and lift millions from poverty.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
8. Asia’s Tariff Revolution 🚢🌏📊
Asia's growth miracle—particularly Japan, South Korea, and China—was driven by reduced tariffs and export-focused strategies. Lower barriers helped transform these economies and lift millions from poverty.
Asia's growth miracle—particularly Japan, South Korea, and China—was driven by reduced tariffs and export-focused strategies. Lower barriers helped transform these economies and lift millions from poverty.
7. Latin America’s Mixed Experiences 🌴⚖️
Latin American nations have tried both high tariffs and open trade. Countries like Chile and Brazil benefited from openness, while others faced struggles adapting to global competition.
Latin American nations have tried both high tariffs and open trade. Countries like Chile and Brazil benefited from openness, while others faced struggles adapting to global competition.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
7. Latin America’s Mixed Experiences 🌴⚖️
Latin American nations have tried both high tariffs and open trade. Countries like Chile and Brazil benefited from openness, while others faced struggles adapting to global competition.
Latin American nations have tried both high tariffs and open trade. Countries like Chile and Brazil benefited from openness, while others faced struggles adapting to global competition.
6. North America's Free Trade Experiment 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🚛
Inspired by Europe, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico signed NAFTA in 1992, removing nearly all mutual tariffs. In 2020, NAFTA was replaced by the updated USMCA agreement, reflecting evolving trade priorities.
Inspired by Europe, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico signed NAFTA in 1992, removing nearly all mutual tariffs. In 2020, NAFTA was replaced by the updated USMCA agreement, reflecting evolving trade priorities.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
6. North America's Free Trade Experiment 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🚛
Inspired by Europe, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico signed NAFTA in 1992, removing nearly all mutual tariffs. In 2020, NAFTA was replaced by the updated USMCA agreement, reflecting evolving trade priorities.
Inspired by Europe, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico signed NAFTA in 1992, removing nearly all mutual tariffs. In 2020, NAFTA was replaced by the updated USMCA agreement, reflecting evolving trade priorities.
5. Europe's Tariff-Free Success Story 🇪🇺✨
Europe embraced tariff reduction early. The European Economic Community (1957) removed tariffs among six nations, greatly boosting trade within a decade. Today's EU shows how openness enhances economic growth and political unity.
Europe embraced tariff reduction early. The European Economic Community (1957) removed tariffs among six nations, greatly boosting trade within a decade. Today's EU shows how openness enhances economic growth and political unity.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
5. Europe's Tariff-Free Success Story 🇪🇺✨
Europe embraced tariff reduction early. The European Economic Community (1957) removed tariffs among six nations, greatly boosting trade within a decade. Today's EU shows how openness enhances economic growth and political unity.
Europe embraced tariff reduction early. The European Economic Community (1957) removed tariffs among six nations, greatly boosting trade within a decade. Today's EU shows how openness enhances economic growth and political unity.
4. Lessons Learned: GATT and the WTO 🤝
Later nations realized protectionism’s dangers. In 1947 they formed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to lower tariffs.
In 1995 it evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO), with 164 members today (green and blue).
Later nations realized protectionism’s dangers. In 1947 they formed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to lower tariffs.
In 1995 it evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO), with 164 members today (green and blue).
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
4. Lessons Learned: GATT and the WTO 🤝
Later nations realized protectionism’s dangers. In 1947 they formed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to lower tariffs.
In 1995 it evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO), with 164 members today (green and blue).
Later nations realized protectionism’s dangers. In 1947 they formed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to lower tariffs.
In 1995 it evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO), with 164 members today (green and blue).
3. Trade Wars 🥊🌍
When one nation raises tariffs, making itself seemingly better off, other countries retaliate to protect their own economies.
This "tit-for-tat" spiral leads to widespread economic harm, often making everyone worse off.
When one nation raises tariffs, making itself seemingly better off, other countries retaliate to protect their own economies.
This "tit-for-tat" spiral leads to widespread economic harm, often making everyone worse off.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
3. Trade Wars 🥊🌍
When one nation raises tariffs, making itself seemingly better off, other countries retaliate to protect their own economies.
This "tit-for-tat" spiral leads to widespread economic harm, often making everyone worse off.
When one nation raises tariffs, making itself seemingly better off, other countries retaliate to protect their own economies.
This "tit-for-tat" spiral leads to widespread economic harm, often making everyone worse off.
Other countries retaliated, causing global trade to plunge nearly two-thirds in three years. This increased the severity of the Great Depression.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Other countries retaliated, causing global trade to plunge nearly two-thirds in three years. This increased the severity of the Great Depression.
2. The Great Depression’s Tariff Disaster 🌩️💸 🤦
At the beginning of the Great Depression, the U.S. passed the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), sharply raising import tariffs to above 50%.
At the beginning of the Great Depression, the U.S. passed the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), sharply raising import tariffs to above 50%.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
2. The Great Depression’s Tariff Disaster 🌩️💸 🤦
At the beginning of the Great Depression, the U.S. passed the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), sharply raising import tariffs to above 50%.
At the beginning of the Great Depression, the U.S. passed the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), sharply raising import tariffs to above 50%.
And here is how trade openness of countries increased over the last decades.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
And here is how trade openness of countries increased over the last decades.
This figure shows the trade openness index of countries in 2023, defined as the sum of exports and imports (of goods and services) divided by gross domestic product, expressed as a percentage.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
This figure shows the trade openness index of countries in 2023, defined as the sum of exports and imports (of goods and services) divided by gross domestic product, expressed as a percentage.
1. Early 1900s vs. Today 🏭
It is true that in the early 1900s high tariffs of 30-50% were common.
But international trade (e.g. exports) now accounts for 25-30% of global GDP.
In 1900s it was substantially lower, so the tariffs applied to a smaller portion of the economy.
It is true that in the early 1900s high tariffs of 30-50% were common.
But international trade (e.g. exports) now accounts for 25-30% of global GDP.
In 1900s it was substantially lower, so the tariffs applied to a smaller portion of the economy.
April 3, 2025 at 3:11 PM
1. Early 1900s vs. Today 🏭
It is true that in the early 1900s high tariffs of 30-50% were common.
But international trade (e.g. exports) now accounts for 25-30% of global GDP.
In 1900s it was substantially lower, so the tariffs applied to a smaller portion of the economy.
It is true that in the early 1900s high tariffs of 30-50% were common.
But international trade (e.g. exports) now accounts for 25-30% of global GDP.
In 1900s it was substantially lower, so the tariffs applied to a smaller portion of the economy.
Final Note:
These are just starting points for further investigation. The biotech space—gene editing and AI drug discovery in particular—holds incredible promise but also comes with considerable risk (and crazy volatility). Always dive deeper and form your own opinion!
These are just starting points for further investigation. The biotech space—gene editing and AI drug discovery in particular—holds incredible promise but also comes with considerable risk (and crazy volatility). Always dive deeper and form your own opinion!
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Final Note:
These are just starting points for further investigation. The biotech space—gene editing and AI drug discovery in particular—holds incredible promise but also comes with considerable risk (and crazy volatility). Always dive deeper and form your own opinion!
These are just starting points for further investigation. The biotech space—gene editing and AI drug discovery in particular—holds incredible promise but also comes with considerable risk (and crazy volatility). Always dive deeper and form your own opinion!
- Investment Caveat: If another AI-first company outperforms them, Recursion's stocks could lose value. Thorough research is essential.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
- Investment Caveat: If another AI-first company outperforms them, Recursion's stocks could lose value. Thorough research is essential.
A bit more detail: By targeting CDK7 (Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 7), REC-617 slows down uncontrolled cancer cell division and disrupts essential gene transcription—without causing the broader toxicity of inhibiting other CDKs like CDK12/13.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
A bit more detail: By targeting CDK7 (Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 7), REC-617 slows down uncontrolled cancer cell division and disrupts essential gene transcription—without causing the broader toxicity of inhibiting other CDKs like CDK12/13.
- Promising Pipeline: Recursion's pipeline includes exciting candidates, for example REC-617 (formerly GTAEXS617), a selective CDK7 inhibitor for advanced solid tumors.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
- Promising Pipeline: Recursion's pipeline includes exciting candidates, for example REC-617 (formerly GTAEXS617), a selective CDK7 inhibitor for advanced solid tumors.
- Growing Validation: A big vote of confidence for Recursion Pharmaceuticals was their recent merger with Exscientia. If Exscientia didn't believe in Recursion's leadership, they would not have agreed to the merger and would have kept developing their great drug pipeline on their own.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
- Growing Validation: A big vote of confidence for Recursion Pharmaceuticals was their recent merger with Exscientia. If Exscientia didn't believe in Recursion's leadership, they would not have agreed to the merger and would have kept developing their great drug pipeline on their own.
- Realistic Leadership: CEO Chris Gibson keeps expectations grounded, which is refreshing in an industry prone to hype.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
- Realistic Leadership: CEO Chris Gibson keeps expectations grounded, which is refreshing in an industry prone to hype.
5. Example: Recursion Pharmaceuticals (@recursionpharma.bsky.social, $RXRX) 🔁 💊
- Strong Team Mix: @recursionpharma.bsky.social combines biology/medicine expertise, machine-learning know-how, and serious computing infrastructure—crucial ingredients for AI-driven drug discovery success.
- Strong Team Mix: @recursionpharma.bsky.social combines biology/medicine expertise, machine-learning know-how, and serious computing infrastructure—crucial ingredients for AI-driven drug discovery success.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
5. Example: Recursion Pharmaceuticals (@recursionpharma.bsky.social, $RXRX) 🔁 💊
- Strong Team Mix: @recursionpharma.bsky.social combines biology/medicine expertise, machine-learning know-how, and serious computing infrastructure—crucial ingredients for AI-driven drug discovery success.
- Strong Team Mix: @recursionpharma.bsky.social combines biology/medicine expertise, machine-learning know-how, and serious computing infrastructure—crucial ingredients for AI-driven drug discovery success.
- Sudden Breakthroughs: AI often doesn’t work—until it suddenly does. Think of how neural networks transformed computer vision post-2012. If AI-powered drug discovery takes off, there’ll be no going back to using no AI.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
- Sudden Breakthroughs: AI often doesn’t work—until it suddenly does. Think of how neural networks transformed computer vision post-2012. If AI-powered drug discovery takes off, there’ll be no going back to using no AI.
- Reducing Failure: A huge potential is predicting which drugs will fail before costly clinical trials. Currently, around 85-90% of drugs that enter trials never gain US FDA approval. Saving even a fraction of these wasted costs could be revolutionary.
February 14, 2025 at 4:19 PM
- Reducing Failure: A huge potential is predicting which drugs will fail before costly clinical trials. Currently, around 85-90% of drugs that enter trials never gain US FDA approval. Saving even a fraction of these wasted costs could be revolutionary.