Evan Miyakawa
@evanmiya.bsky.social
College basketball analytics at EvanMiya.com. PhD Statistician / Data Scientist. Featured in ESPN, CBS Sports, The Athletic, Wall Street Journal. Hebrews 11:6.
Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
November 13, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year.
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
2025 Lineup Projections and Rankings
Handing out lineup awards before the season begins, what can go wrong?
blog.evanmiya.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year.
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
2025 Preseason Ceiling and Floor Team Outcomes
Using preseason simulations to get best and worst case scenarios for every team
blog.evanmiya.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:27 PM
I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️
October 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️
After some big offseason upgrades to the Bayesian Performance Rating model, I've put together an article I've been meaning to do for a long time.
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB
New updates and a full model technical explainer
blog.evanmiya.com
October 20, 2025 at 6:03 PM
After some big offseason upgrades to the Bayesian Performance Rating model, I've put together an article I've been meaning to do for a long time.
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th.
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
October 14, 2025 at 5:21 PM
The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th.
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning.
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
October 12, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning.
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
October 8, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!
September 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!
CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com!
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
Five Team Roster Outlooks for 2025-26
A peak behind the curtain at a brand new tool at EvanMiya.com
blog.evanmiya.com
June 10, 2025 at 7:42 PM
A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com!
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up?
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
Mid-Major Roster Construction Strategies
How teams with limited resources can find success in the modern portal era
blog.evanmiya.com
May 8, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up?
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
My official bracket is done.
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
March 19, 2025 at 11:00 PM
My official bracket is done.
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
New Mexico has some real potential to make a deep run in this tournament.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
March 19, 2025 at 10:42 PM
New Mexico has some real potential to make a deep run in this tournament.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
March 19, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
I'm torn on St. John's for this reason:
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
March 19, 2025 at 9:37 PM
I'm torn on St. John's for this reason:
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
I love UC San Diego's ability to move the ball.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
March 19, 2025 at 9:15 PM
I love UC San Diego's ability to move the ball.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
March 19, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
Several weeks ago I was ready to go all in on Texas Tech in the tournament. They were a top 6 team at EvanMiya.com at the time, and have incredible shooters and a dominant big man in JT Toppin.
They aren't in quite as favorable a spot now, but I'm still rolling with them in my Final Four.
They aren't in quite as favorable a spot now, but I'm still rolling with them in my Final Four.
March 19, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Several weeks ago I was ready to go all in on Texas Tech in the tournament. They were a top 6 team at EvanMiya.com at the time, and have incredible shooters and a dominant big man in JT Toppin.
They aren't in quite as favorable a spot now, but I'm still rolling with them in my Final Four.
They aren't in quite as favorable a spot now, but I'm still rolling with them in my Final Four.
I really like Maryland's path to a Sweet 16, if not further.
If they beat GCU, they would face either Memphis or Colorado State, both of which they would be favored to beat by 6 points according to EvanMiya.com.
They are the strongest 4-seed in the tourney and could give Florida a test.
If they beat GCU, they would face either Memphis or Colorado State, both of which they would be favored to beat by 6 points according to EvanMiya.com.
They are the strongest 4-seed in the tourney and could give Florida a test.
March 19, 2025 at 5:52 PM
I really like Maryland's path to a Sweet 16, if not further.
If they beat GCU, they would face either Memphis or Colorado State, both of which they would be favored to beat by 6 points according to EvanMiya.com.
They are the strongest 4-seed in the tourney and could give Florida a test.
If they beat GCU, they would face either Memphis or Colorado State, both of which they would be favored to beat by 6 points according to EvanMiya.com.
They are the strongest 4-seed in the tourney and could give Florida a test.
Here are the tourney teams with the biggest injury adjustment at EvanMiya.com due to players who are either questionable or unable to play in the first round:
1. Iowa State
2. Duke
3. Texas Tech
4. Kentucky
5. Arkansas
1. Iowa State
2. Duke
3. Texas Tech
4. Kentucky
5. Arkansas
EvanMiya CBB Analytics
Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.
EvanMiya.com
March 18, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Here are the tourney teams with the biggest injury adjustment at EvanMiya.com due to players who are either questionable or unable to play in the first round:
1. Iowa State
2. Duke
3. Texas Tech
4. Kentucky
5. Arkansas
1. Iowa State
2. Duke
3. Texas Tech
4. Kentucky
5. Arkansas
The "Kill Shot": Tracking 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams!
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
March 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
The "Kill Shot": Tracking 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams!
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
Here is how every tournament team stacks up based on their team strength compared to their seed, using ratings at EvanMiya.com.
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
March 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Here is how every tournament team stacks up based on their team strength compared to their seed, using ratings at EvanMiya.com.
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
There are only five teams I'd feel comfortable picking as the winner in my bracket.
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
March 18, 2025 at 12:10 AM
There are only five teams I'd feel comfortable picking as the winner in my bracket.
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
There is a 68% chance a 1-seed wins the tournament this year, using tourney odds at EvanMiya.com.
Duke - 24.7%
Houston - 15.4%
Florida - 15.1%
Auburn - 13.1%
Duke - 24.7%
Houston - 15.4%
Florida - 15.1%
Auburn - 13.1%
March 17, 2025 at 11:16 PM
There is a 68% chance a 1-seed wins the tournament this year, using tourney odds at EvanMiya.com.
Duke - 24.7%
Houston - 15.4%
Florida - 15.1%
Auburn - 13.1%
Duke - 24.7%
Houston - 15.4%
Florida - 15.1%
Auburn - 13.1%