How does the timing of Admiral Alvin Holsey’s retirement fit into all of this, I wonder? It appears to have come approximately 1 month after this attack. I can’t help but wonder if he knew something and decided he could well be next.

If the house of cards begins to crumble, this time could be different. I suspect it won’t be as sudden as April, more like a slow motion train wreck. But it may be long enough, and deep enough, that we actually get capitulation. In turn, that could set the stage for a long and healthy recovery.

. . . and the only refrain is “just get me OUT.”

Now, the market is even more expensive, debt levels are troubling, the full tariff bite likely hasn’t yet been felt and AI investment appears to be getting very circular in nature.

Back in 2022, someone might have been able to argue “Yeah, but interest rates have dropped significantly.” However, they have soared since, with no meaningful correction and, in many places, continued increases. #EconSky

I don’t have much interest until there is another serious correction. The market, in my view, is still priced for perfection in the midst of circumstances that are so far from perfect that you couldn’t see perfect with a telescope. #EconSky

Without even getting into the unprecedented level of uncertainty we face today, from a geopolitical standpoint, the odds of stellar returns moving forward don’t look great to me. While each must make his or her own decisions as to asset allocation, might be worth pondering? #EconSky

Since I am retired, it is critical to me to assess my risk/return odds. So I look at this graph and ask myself a question: If I look back at any previous point in history when the market was this expensive, and then look forward at the next 5, 10, or even 15 years, how does it look?

As we sit here this July 4, this ratio sits at 38.31. As can also be seen, it has only been this high twice, and notably higher only once, during the dot com bubble around the turn of the century. In other words, the market is very expensive.

Here is what an investor needs to ponder. Start with the current level per that chart. Look back at previous times it was as high. Then look forward even 10 years or more. How do those forward returns look? #EconSky

Here’s the other part of that. Teslas used to be a status symbol, in part because of the price of entry. It was a way of showing you were both affluent and environmentally aware. Now that your neighbor’s 20-something kid can afford one, if anything it might suggest you’re struggling. $TSLA