Erik Fossing Nielsen
@erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social
Sr Advisor ‘Independent Economics’
Former Chief Economist, UniCredit, Chief European Economist, Goldman Sachs, former World Bank, IMF, Danish central bank.
Former Chief Economist, UniCredit, Chief European Economist, Goldman Sachs, former World Bank, IMF, Danish central bank.
🙏🙏
November 10, 2025 at 3:43 PM
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Strange. You may have to sign on to it at Substack (it’s free).
Alternatively, if you email me at EFN@independent-economics.com I’ll send it to you.
Alternatively, if you email me at EFN@independent-economics.com I’ll send it to you.
Would love to read but the link sends to a private page?
November 10, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Strange. You may have to sign on to it at Substack (it’s free).
Alternatively, if you email me at EFN@independent-economics.com I’ll send it to you.
Alternatively, if you email me at EFN@independent-economics.com I’ll send it to you.
I wasn’t “praising it so much”. All I did was to note it’s higher than the US (which is the country of comparison in this note)
Wait, why is the article praising German life expectancy so much? It's nearly the lowest in Western Europe. Our 81.7 is more than two full years behind Spain and Italy's 84, and is actually a tad closer to the US's 79.6 than to 84. @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
I wasn’t “praising it so much”. All I did was to note it’s higher than the US (which is the country of comparison in this note)
I have just reposted.
Trying to use the link I get the error:
"This page is private - try signing in with a different email, or letting the author know they've linked to a private page."
"This page is private - try signing in with a different email, or letting the author know they've linked to a private page."
November 9, 2025 at 6:23 PM
I have just reposted.
In today’s note I illustrate why German per capita GDP, while lower, is better than US per capita GDP - and I argue that Germany will outperform the US in 2026-27.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen
independenteconomics.substack.com
November 9, 2025 at 10:26 AM
In today’s note I illustrate why German per capita GDP, while lower, is better than US per capita GDP - and I argue that Germany will outperform the US in 2026-27.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
At Substack - look for me, Erik Fossing Nielsen, at Independent Economics.
…. And it’s all free!
…. And it’s all free!
How do l sign up to read this? Thanks
November 2, 2025 at 6:31 PM
At Substack - look for me, Erik Fossing Nielsen, at Independent Economics.
…. And it’s all free!
…. And it’s all free!
Trump and Xi eased their tensions this past week, but the root cause - their excessive national - are not being addressed. To do so would require a different type and level of cooperation which - sadly - is not what drives today’s leaders.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen
independenteconomics.substack.com
November 2, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Trump and Xi eased their tensions this past week, but the root cause - their excessive national - are not being addressed. To do so would require a different type and level of cooperation which - sadly - is not what drives today’s leaders.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
If you are nice to us Europeans, we could consider helping you out …
Being an Anglo-Saxon country not great for borrowing costs right now.
October 27, 2025 at 7:41 PM
If you are nice to us Europeans, we could consider helping you out …
Impressions from Berlin Global Dialogue. Lots of positives, but key impression is one of anger - feeling of betrayal - by China due to rare earths ban.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen
independenteconomics.substack.com
October 26, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Impressions from Berlin Global Dialogue. Lots of positives, but key impression is one of anger - feeling of betrayal - by China due to rare earths ban.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sunday Wrap
Impressions from the IMF Annual Meetings in Washington. First take...
open.substack.com
October 19, 2025 at 2:16 PM
🙏🙏🙏
👇🎯 I remain astounded by how hard so many folks in the media are working to try & make a 🇫🇷 debt crisis happen. This is the correct take.
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
bsky.app/profile/mcop...
The French budget and debt are no worse than in most other major economies.
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
October 12, 2025 at 5:35 PM
🙏🙏🙏
The French budget and debt are no worse than in most other major economies.
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen
independenteconomics.substack.com
October 12, 2025 at 11:35 AM
The French budget and debt are no worse than in most other major economies.
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
They all need a medium term plan to restore sustainability. That’ll require broad buy-in from society. It’ll have to include wealth taxation everywhere.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
This reflects well the majority of feedback I got in the note.
Yet, the present state of affairs (community agreements after delays and “bribery” of small hold-outs along with watering down proposals) is not sustainable.
So what’s going to give?
I think it’ll be the community methods.
Yet, the present state of affairs (community agreements after delays and “bribery” of small hold-outs along with watering down proposals) is not sustainable.
So what’s going to give?
I think it’ll be the community methods.
Is the community method on its way out - multi-speed integration coming?
I remain a bit sceptical: a Europe of multiple speeds has been touted for a long time, but in practice the pressures to move with all EU-27 tend to be really high.
The EU enhanced cooperation clause has rarely been used...
I remain a bit sceptical: a Europe of multiple speeds has been touted for a long time, but in practice the pressures to move with all EU-27 tend to be really high.
The EU enhanced cooperation clause has rarely been used...
In today’s Sunday Wrap I argue that this past week saw Berlin and Paris signal a move to more intergovernmental cooperation in the EU’s response to challenges posed by US and Russia. That’s good news.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
October 7, 2025 at 10:39 AM
This reflects well the majority of feedback I got in the note.
Yet, the present state of affairs (community agreements after delays and “bribery” of small hold-outs along with watering down proposals) is not sustainable.
So what’s going to give?
I think it’ll be the community methods.
Yet, the present state of affairs (community agreements after delays and “bribery” of small hold-outs along with watering down proposals) is not sustainable.
So what’s going to give?
I think it’ll be the community methods.
🤣🤣🤣
European federalists be like
October 5, 2025 at 12:33 PM
🤣🤣🤣
In today’s Sunday Wrap I argue that this past week saw Berlin and Paris signal a move to more intergovernmental cooperation in the EU’s response to challenges posed by US and Russia. That’s good news.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen
independenteconomics.substack.com
October 5, 2025 at 12:00 PM
In today’s Sunday Wrap I argue that this past week saw Berlin and Paris signal a move to more intergovernmental cooperation in the EU’s response to challenges posed by US and Russia. That’s good news.
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...
Sunday Wrap on the possible re-introduction of a wealth tax in France - the hottest debated issue in the present political crisis.
Why I dont like wealth taxation, but think there is a case for an exemption now.
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
Why I dont like wealth taxation, but think there is a case for an exemption now.
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
Sunday Wrap
Wealth taxation may be the make-or-break topic in France's political crisis. I summarise why I don't like wealth taxation, but that there is a good case for an exemption in today's France.
open.substack.com
September 28, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Sunday Wrap on the possible re-introduction of a wealth tax in France - the hottest debated issue in the present political crisis.
Why I dont like wealth taxation, but think there is a case for an exemption now.
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
Why I dont like wealth taxation, but think there is a case for an exemption now.
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
My thoughts on von der Leyen’s State of Union address:
On balance, I was disappointed.
1. on econ reforms, its was misguided and insufficiently ambitious,
2. On Ukraine, okay, but …
3. On the US, defensive but without explanation for the weird stuff
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
On balance, I was disappointed.
1. on econ reforms, its was misguided and insufficiently ambitious,
2. On Ukraine, okay, but …
3. On the US, defensive but without explanation for the weird stuff
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
Sunday Wrap
Why I was underwhelmed by von der Leyen's State of the Union address on Wednesday: Misguided on economic reforms, okay on Ukraine, defensive (with no explanations) of her questionable deal with Trump.
open.substack.com
September 14, 2025 at 10:43 AM
My thoughts on von der Leyen’s State of Union address:
On balance, I was disappointed.
1. on econ reforms, its was misguided and insufficiently ambitious,
2. On Ukraine, okay, but …
3. On the US, defensive but without explanation for the weird stuff
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
On balance, I was disappointed.
1. on econ reforms, its was misguided and insufficiently ambitious,
2. On Ukraine, okay, but …
3. On the US, defensive but without explanation for the weird stuff
open.substack.com/pub/independ...
Spot on.
"This is not just how authoritarianism happens. This is authoritarianism happening." www.nytimes.com/2025/09/07/o...
Opinion | Stop Acting Like This Is Normal
www.nytimes.com
September 8, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Spot on.
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Lidt trist søndagslæsning.
I hvert fald ikke et optimistisk syn på den videre udvikling af den økonomiske situation. En der måske har været med til at skabe Trump og som hans nuværende politik potentielt bare vil forværre.
I hvert fald ikke et optimistisk syn på den videre udvikling af den økonomiske situation. En der måske har været med til at skabe Trump og som hans nuværende politik potentielt bare vil forværre.
In today’s new 3-edition Sunday Wrap :
- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap
- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap
September 7, 2025 at 11:48 AM
🙏🙏🙏
In today’s new 3-edition Sunday Wrap :
- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap
- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap
Sunday Wrap
The long - and somewhat predictable - road to the arrival of Trump, and why the slowdown will get worse and quite probably lead to a crisis.
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com
September 7, 2025 at 10:13 AM
In today’s new 3-edition Sunday Wrap :
- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap
- a brief history of what motivated 18 years of Sunday writing
- the long (and predictable!) road to Trump
- how his policies lead to a faster slowdown, and raises the risk of a major crisis
erikfossingnielsen179.substack.com/p/sunday-wrap
Just a reminder: Greenland left the EU in 1985 (after having joined with the rest of Denmark in 1973) 🤔
EU lægger op til at fordoble den økonomiske støtte til Grønland 🇬🇱
Der er tale om knap 4 milliarder kroner i perioden 2028-34.
EU står i forvejen for cirka 3% af Landskassens indtægter. #greenland #dkmedier
knr.gl/da/nyheder/e...
Der er tale om knap 4 milliarder kroner i perioden 2028-34.
EU står i forvejen for cirka 3% af Landskassens indtægter. #greenland #dkmedier
knr.gl/da/nyheder/e...
Europakommissionen vil fordoble milliard-støtten til Grønland
Europakommissionen foreslår at fordoble de nuværende tilskud til fire milliarder kroner, så Grønland bliver en endnu tættere samarbejdspartner på klima, råstoffer og uddannelse.
knr.gl
September 3, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Just a reminder: Greenland left the EU in 1985 (after having joined with the rest of Denmark in 1973) 🤔
Reposted by Erik Fossing Nielsen
The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.
There's first signs of contagion from France to Italy and flight to safety into German Bunds. Italy is the Euro zone Achilles heel. Without it, ECB could let French yields rise, helping France get its budget under control. But that's not possible with Italy always teetering on the brink of crisis...
August 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.
WHY DOESNT ANYONE IMMEDIATELY CORRECT HIM?
Trump: "People go into war, think they're gonna win the war, then they get their asses kicked & they lose their country and lose millions of lives. Nobody goes into a war thinking they're gonna lose. I'm sure Ukraine thought they were gonna win. You're gonna beat somebody that's 15 times your size"
August 27, 2025 at 6:23 PM
WHY DOESNT ANYONE IMMEDIATELY CORRECT HIM?