Emily Blanchard
@emilyjblanchard.bsky.social
Econ Prof @ Dartmouth's TuckSchool. Former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of State (Jan '22-Nov '23). Views my own. Retweet != endorsement.
NOW HIRING a one-year, full-time post-bacc research fellow to work with longtime-coauthor Rob Johnson (Notre Dame) and me on on global supply networks, trade, and economic security. Econ + excellent programming skills (esp SQL) are a must. 📝 Details + application: apply.interfolio.com/168476
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June 2, 2025 at 8:37 PM
NOW HIRING a one-year, full-time post-bacc research fellow to work with longtime-coauthor Rob Johnson (Notre Dame) and me on on global supply networks, trade, and economic security. Econ + excellent programming skills (esp SQL) are a must. 📝 Details + application: apply.interfolio.com/168476
Exactly so.
Attempts to weaponize uncertainty might work in foreign policy when dealing state to state. But in economic policy making, with billions of decentralized decision-makers and many alternatives, raising uncertainty is likely to backfire and just make everone worse off (3/n)
March 9, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Exactly so.
Reposted by Emily Blanchard
The vibe in the Beige Book is an economy holding its breath, with tariffs mentioned 49 times and uncertainty mentioned 45 times within the 49 pages.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
www.federalreserve.gov
March 5, 2025 at 9:04 PM
The vibe in the Beige Book is an economy holding its breath, with tariffs mentioned 49 times and uncertainty mentioned 45 times within the 49 pages.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
Hard to believe in just 2 months, we've gone from imminent soft landing to the specter of stagflation. Policy matters. theovershoot.co/p/the-us-cho...
The U.S. Chooses Stagflation
Policy choices over the past six weeks risk pushing a previously strong economy into a world of faster inflation and slower real growth.
theovershoot.co
March 6, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Hard to believe in just 2 months, we've gone from imminent soft landing to the specter of stagflation. Policy matters. theovershoot.co/p/the-us-cho...
It turns out that when supply chains are deeply intertwined, tariffs are *really* expensive! This is especially true for carmakers in North America, who also own the factories in Canada and Mexico. See, e.g., cepr.org/voxeu/column... and www.restud.com/global-value...
Trade wars in the global value chain era
The nature of global commerce has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, with the meteoric rise of global value chain trade. This column, taken from a recent Vox eBook, builds on insights from recent research to identify three critical dimensions of global value chain trade that promise to make today’s trade wars more economically costly and more politically complex than previous trade wars.
cepr.org
March 5, 2025 at 10:00 PM
It turns out that when supply chains are deeply intertwined, tariffs are *really* expensive! This is especially true for carmakers in North America, who also own the factories in Canada and Mexico. See, e.g., cepr.org/voxeu/column... and www.restud.com/global-value...
Reposted by Emily Blanchard
I'm often asked, "but don't tariffs create jobs?"
Alcoa says aluminum tariffs will cost U.S. jobs--and not prompt them to increase their domestic aluminum production. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
Alcoa warns Trump's aluminum tariff could cost 100,000 US jobs
Aluminum giant Alcoa said on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose a tariff on aluminum imports could cost about 100,000 jobs across the United States.
www.reuters.com
February 25, 2025 at 9:29 PM
I'm often asked, "but don't tariffs create jobs?"