Emil Kastehelmi
@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social
Military analyst, military history expert. Co-founder of Black Bird Group. Focusing on Ukraine, Russia and northern Europe.
Contact:
+358 407388158
emil.kastehelmi@gmail.com
Contact:
+358 407388158
emil.kastehelmi@gmail.com
Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk.
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
November 4, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk.
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
June 5, 2025 at 5:23 PM
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes.
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
June 1, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes.
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
May 28, 2025 at 1:23 PM
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
#Russland steigert seine Militäraktivitäten entlang der #Nato -Ostflanke. Gleichzeitig stellt der #Kreml seine Truppen nahe der finnischen Grenze neu auf. Was es damit auf sich haben könnte, erklärt @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social bei @t-online.de ⬇️
www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...
www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...
Russland modernisiert vergessenen Militärflugplatz nahe finnischer Grenze – Was folgt?
Russland steigert seine Militäraktivitäten entlang der Nato-Ostflanke. Gleichzeitig stellt der Kreml seine Truppen nahe der finnischen Grenze neu auf. Was es damit auf sich haben könnte, erklärt der M...
www.t-online.de
May 4, 2025 at 1:33 PM
#Russland steigert seine Militäraktivitäten entlang der #Nato -Ostflanke. Gleichzeitig stellt der #Kreml seine Truppen nahe der finnischen Grenze neu auf. Was es damit auf sich haben könnte, erklärt @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social bei @t-online.de ⬇️
www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...
www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
A-studiossa @katri.bsky.social ja @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social kanssa. Omat pointit: varauduttava riskeihin aselevon aikana. Tuettava Ukrainaa neuvotteluissa, joista se ei voi kieltäytyä. Katri viisaasti muistutti että näitä neuvotteluita on useita ja tiedämme niistä vähän.
areena.yle.fi/1-72480970
areena.yle.fi/1-72480970
April 17, 2025 at 6:16 AM
A-studiossa @katri.bsky.social ja @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social kanssa. Omat pointit: varauduttava riskeihin aselevon aikana. Tuettava Ukrainaa neuvotteluissa, joista se ei voi kieltäytyä. Katri viisaasti muistutti että näitä neuvotteluita on useita ja tiedämme niistä vähän.
areena.yle.fi/1-72480970
areena.yle.fi/1-72480970
"As long as Russia has military personnel, Finland will need anti-personnel mines."
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
April 1, 2025 at 1:49 PM
"As long as Russia has military personnel, Finland will need anti-personnel mines."
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines.
Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.
In the Russian-Ukrainian border region, both parties have continued offensive operations since the Ukrainian defense in Kursk collapsed.
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
March 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
In the Russian-Ukrainian border region, both parties have continued offensive operations since the Ukrainian defense in Kursk collapsed.
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
Our team at Frontelligence Insight, in cooperation with RFEL, has released the most comprehensive report on long-range strikes inside Russia, covering nearly 6 months. After months of analysis, the report was a major success. We ask for your support to keep independent analysis alive
March 27, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Our team at Frontelligence Insight, in cooperation with RFEL, has released the most comprehensive report on long-range strikes inside Russia, covering nearly 6 months. After months of analysis, the report was a major success. We ask for your support to keep independent analysis alive
Europe must prepare for the worst-case scenario, where the security architecture of the whole continent will be reshaped. It's still too early to say what exactly will be affected by yesterday's diplomatic disaster and how quickly, but the damage is likely very significant. 1/
March 1, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Europe must prepare for the worst-case scenario, where the security architecture of the whole continent will be reshaped. It's still too early to say what exactly will be affected by yesterday's diplomatic disaster and how quickly, but the damage is likely very significant. 1/
Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/
February 24, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/
Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village.
At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/
At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/
February 10, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village.
At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/
At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/
After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/
February 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/
In January 2025, Russia captured the least Ukrainian land since August 2024. The gains peaked in November, but in December-January Russians have taken significantly less ground.
Our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social analyst
Pasi Paroinen goes through the latest observations regarding this development.
Our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social analyst
Pasi Paroinen goes through the latest observations regarding this development.
Even though the Russians were able to capture Velyka Novosilka and secure rest of Kurakhove, the overall pace of Russian advance continued to slow down during January. Russian armed forces were able to conquer 332 square kilometers of Ukraine and regain some 68 sq km in Kursk. 1/
February 3, 2025 at 1:59 PM
In January 2025, Russia captured the least Ukrainian land since August 2024. The gains peaked in November, but in December-January Russians have taken significantly less ground.
Our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social analyst
Pasi Paroinen goes through the latest observations regarding this development.
Our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social analyst
Pasi Paroinen goes through the latest observations regarding this development.
Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk.
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
February 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk.
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
Our group did a dive into light infantry tactics. There has been much talk about human waves in Ukraine, and the narratives don't always reflect the realities. This thread aims to clarify a few things about this subject.
Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread
Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?
Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.
1/
Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"?
Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters.
1/
January 17, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Our group did a dive into light infantry tactics. There has been much talk about human waves in Ukraine, and the narratives don't always reflect the realities. This thread aims to clarify a few things about this subject.
After the fall of Neskuchne, Ukraine has now lost all the villages it captured south of Velyka Novosilka in the 2023. This was the most successful direction of the mostly failed summer offensive.
Velyka Novosilka itself is under encirclement threat, and the logistics can get very difficult soon.
Velyka Novosilka itself is under encirclement threat, and the logistics can get very difficult soon.
January 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM
After the fall of Neskuchne, Ukraine has now lost all the villages it captured south of Velyka Novosilka in the 2023. This was the most successful direction of the mostly failed summer offensive.
Velyka Novosilka itself is under encirclement threat, and the logistics can get very difficult soon.
Velyka Novosilka itself is under encirclement threat, and the logistics can get very difficult soon.
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social sanoitti aika hyvin tuon tilanteen tällä hetkellä.
Jos länsi ei auta Ukrainaa voittamaan, se tarkoittaa, että lännessä hyväksytään Venäjän toiminta. Hyväksytään, että Euroopassa voidaan rajoja siirtää sotimalla. Hyväksytään, ettei sotarikoksista seuraa mitään.
Jos länsi ei auta Ukrainaa voittamaan, se tarkoittaa, että lännessä hyväksytään Venäjän toiminta. Hyväksytään, että Euroopassa voidaan rajoja siirtää sotimalla. Hyväksytään, ettei sotarikoksista seuraa mitään.
Ukrainan tilannekatsaus - Rintamatilanne, miespula ja lännen interventio? Emil Kastehelmi
YouTube video by Mighty Finland
www.youtube.com
January 5, 2025 at 12:50 PM
@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social sanoitti aika hyvin tuon tilanteen tällä hetkellä.
Jos länsi ei auta Ukrainaa voittamaan, se tarkoittaa, että lännessä hyväksytään Venäjän toiminta. Hyväksytään, että Euroopassa voidaan rajoja siirtää sotimalla. Hyväksytään, ettei sotarikoksista seuraa mitään.
Jos länsi ei auta Ukrainaa voittamaan, se tarkoittaa, että lännessä hyväksytään Venäjän toiminta. Hyväksytään, että Euroopassa voidaan rajoja siirtää sotimalla. Hyväksytään, ettei sotarikoksista seuraa mitään.
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
January 5, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea.
These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/
These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/
December 29, 2024 at 4:51 PM
During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea.
These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/
These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
December 23, 2024 at 1:05 AM
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk.
1/
Reposted by Emil Kastehelmi
@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social todistaa väkevästi Mighty Finlandin tuoreimmassa:”venäjän voiton hyväksyminen on lännen poliittinen päätös”. Täysin samaa mieltä siitä, että vaikka voitoksi kehystettäisiin mitä, 1/5 maan pinta-alan menetyksestä ei voi olla samaan aikaan totta.
Ukrainan tilannekatsaus - Rintamatilanne, miespula ja lännen interventio? Emil Kastehelmi
Mighty Finland Podcast · Episode
open.spotify.com
December 18, 2024 at 6:55 AM
@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social todistaa väkevästi Mighty Finlandin tuoreimmassa:”venäjän voiton hyväksyminen on lännen poliittinen päätös”. Täysin samaa mieltä siitä, että vaikka voitoksi kehystettäisiin mitä, 1/5 maan pinta-alan menetyksestä ei voi olla samaan aikaan totta.