Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
@emile-hokayem.bsky.social
Geopolitics and Middle East at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Just because you have an opinion does not mean you should express it.
Just because you have an opinion does not mean you should express it.
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times:
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
Trump’s deal ended the war — but hasn’t yet delivered peace
US pressure led to a breakthrough but it will take Washington’s sustained attention to ensure that a fragile ceasefire holds
on.ft.com
October 10, 2025 at 10:39 PM
My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times:
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times:
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
Trump’s deal ended the war — but hasn’t yet delivered peace
US pressure led to a breakthrough but it will take Washington’s sustained attention to ensure that a fragile ceasefire holds
on.ft.com
October 10, 2025 at 10:39 PM
My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times:
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
"However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
My latest column in the Financial Times:
"“Has Israel become the new Iran?” is not the debate the enthusiastic architects of the Abraham Accords envisioned playing out across the Gulf region following Tuesday’s Israeli attack in Qatar."
"“Has Israel become the new Iran?” is not the debate the enthusiastic architects of the Abraham Accords envisioned playing out across the Gulf region following Tuesday’s Israeli attack in Qatar."
Israel’s attack on Qatar has shaken the Gulf on.ft.com/47BOapn | opinion
Israel’s attack on Qatar has shaken the Gulf
Netanyahu’s preference for endless war over diplomacy is making Saudis and Emiratis reconsider their alliances
on.ft.com
September 14, 2025 at 10:27 PM
My latest column in the Financial Times:
"“Has Israel become the new Iran?” is not the debate the enthusiastic architects of the Abraham Accords envisioned playing out across the Gulf region following Tuesday’s Israeli attack in Qatar."
"“Has Israel become the new Iran?” is not the debate the enthusiastic architects of the Abraham Accords envisioned playing out across the Gulf region following Tuesday’s Israeli attack in Qatar."
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Read Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social on how the Arab Gulf states can “break the cycle of conflict and instability that plagues the Middle East”:
The Middle East’s New Intermediaries
Can the Gulf states broker peace between America, Iran, and Israel?
fam.ag
August 20, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Read Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social on how the Arab Gulf states can “break the cycle of conflict and instability that plagues the Middle East”:
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
“The Arab Gulf states should step in to mediate a lasting deal between Iran and the United States, however slim the chances of success,” argue Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social.
The Middle East’s New Intermediaries
Can the Gulf states broker peace between America, Iran, and Israel?
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 4, 2025 at 5:44 PM
“The Arab Gulf states should step in to mediate a lasting deal between Iran and the United States, however slim the chances of success,” argue Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social.
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
I have done a general, open access piece on the common misconceptions about the fighting in al-Suwayda'. Too many crude, inaccurate talking points are being circulated among analysts and observers and contributing to the tensions. This needs to stop now
www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...
www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...
Misconceptions on the Fighting in al-Suwayda'
Amid the ongoing fighting between pro-Syrian government tribal militias and local Druze factions in the primarily Druze province of al-Suwayda’ in southern Syria, it has become clear to me that miscon...
www.aymennaltamimi.com
July 20, 2025 at 8:26 PM
I have done a general, open access piece on the common misconceptions about the fighting in al-Suwayda'. Too many crude, inaccurate talking points are being circulated among analysts and observers and contributing to the tensions. This needs to stop now
www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...
www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Good @emile-hokayem.bsky.social piece on why U.S. and Israeli post-war triumphalism isn’t shared by Iran’s Gulf Arab rivals, who fear that they’re heading into an unstable, dangerous, and long-lasting crisis.
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
June 28, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Good @emile-hokayem.bsky.social piece on why U.S. and Israeli post-war triumphalism isn’t shared by Iran’s Gulf Arab rivals, who fear that they’re heading into an unstable, dangerous, and long-lasting crisis.
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
@financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times:
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
The Iran threat will haunt the Gulf for years
As Israel and Washington celebrate, there is a sense of dread and uncertainty throughout the region
on.ft.com
June 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times:
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times:
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
The Iran threat will haunt the Gulf for years
As Israel and Washington celebrate, there is a sense of dread and uncertainty throughout the region
on.ft.com
June 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times:
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
“The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.”
on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
On current trends, Israeli and Iranian government credibility appear to be converging at a point well below zero.
Netanyahu speech: www.gov.il/en/pages/spo...
via @shashj.bsky.social
Netanyahu speech: www.gov.il/en/pages/spo...
via @shashj.bsky.social
June 15, 2025 at 2:56 PM
On current trends, Israeli and Iranian government credibility appear to be converging at a point well below zero.
Netanyahu speech: www.gov.il/en/pages/spo...
via @shashj.bsky.social
Netanyahu speech: www.gov.il/en/pages/spo...
via @shashj.bsky.social
2003 US-UK invasion of Iraq was an absolute tragedy. It also gave us a test to evaluate analysis and advocacy.
So if you are an official who sold that war, a public intellectual who advocated it, a senior commander who assured us victory is around the corner, please consider sitting this one out.
So if you are an official who sold that war, a public intellectual who advocated it, a senior commander who assured us victory is around the corner, please consider sitting this one out.
June 15, 2025 at 12:54 PM
2003 US-UK invasion of Iraq was an absolute tragedy. It also gave us a test to evaluate analysis and advocacy.
So if you are an official who sold that war, a public intellectual who advocated it, a senior commander who assured us victory is around the corner, please consider sitting this one out.
So if you are an official who sold that war, a public intellectual who advocated it, a senior commander who assured us victory is around the corner, please consider sitting this one out.
My piece in the Financial Times about Israel’s attack on Iran.
Iran’s long arm is not so muscular anymore | Opinion
https://www.ft.com/content/5eb51752-38ac-4b56-8547-777c8cc9827e
https://www.ft.com/content/5eb51752-38ac-4b56-8547-777c8cc9827e
Iran’s long arm is not so muscular anymore | Opinion
Israel’s attack is about raw power, not about regional stability or better outcomes
www.ft.com
June 13, 2025 at 5:48 PM
My piece in the Financial Times about Israel’s attack on Iran.
This is the easiest, least meaningful, most performative move Western countries could have taken to pressure Israel. For all the talk about a ‘shift’ in recent weeks, it is increasingly obvious that nothing substantial will happen. The western debacle continues.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
UK places sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers for inciting West Bank violence
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich face travel bans and asset freezes as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway also impose measures
www.theguardian.com
June 10, 2025 at 5:42 PM
This is the easiest, least meaningful, most performative move Western countries could have taken to pressure Israel. For all the talk about a ‘shift’ in recent weeks, it is increasingly obvious that nothing substantial will happen. The western debacle continues.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
At least he jumped before this atrocious scheme began. Can’t say as much of the geniuses behind the US pier debacle last year.
The head of a group overseeing a contentious new aid program in the Gaza Strip resigned on Sunday, hours before the program was set to start operating, saying that he had found it impossible to perform the job independently.
Head of New Gaza Aid System Resigns Over Lack of Autonomy
www.nytimes.com
May 26, 2025 at 4:55 PM
At least he jumped before this atrocious scheme began. Can’t say as much of the geniuses behind the US pier debacle last year.
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
‘Adults are going hungrier to keep children better fed. The most vulnerable – infants, pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers and others needing special diets – are already starving.’
Alex de Waal on famine in Gaza, from the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ma...
Alex de Waal on famine in Gaza, from the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ma...
Alex de Waal | Starvation in Gaza
Twice already during this war, the people of Gaza have pulled back from the brink of categorical famine – both times...
www.lrb.co.uk
May 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM
‘Adults are going hungrier to keep children better fed. The most vulnerable – infants, pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers and others needing special diets – are already starving.’
Alex de Waal on famine in Gaza, from the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ma...
Alex de Waal on famine in Gaza, from the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ma...
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
There will be a lot of euphemisms about "voluntary migration" and "humanitarian zones" and whatnot, but this is ultimately a plan for ethnic cleansing www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
Israel plans to occupy and flatten all of Gaza if no deal by Trump's trip
Trump has effectively given Netanyahu a green light to do as he sees fit, Israeli officials say.
www.axios.com
May 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
There will be a lot of euphemisms about "voluntary migration" and "humanitarian zones" and whatnot, but this is ultimately a plan for ethnic cleansing www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
If Hamas doesn’t capitulate by May 15, Israel will seize Gaza permanently, destroy all still-standing buildings, and force all civilians into a small area on the border, to be held captive in perpetuity unless they leave Palestine.
@barakravid.bsky.social
@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
@barakravid.bsky.social
@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
Israel plans to occupy and flatten all of Gaza if no deal by Trump's trip
Trump has effectively given Netanyahu a green light to do as he sees fit, Israeli officials say.
www.axios.com
May 5, 2025 at 6:33 PM
If Hamas doesn’t capitulate by May 15, Israel will seize Gaza permanently, destroy all still-standing buildings, and force all civilians into a small area on the border, to be held captive in perpetuity unless they leave Palestine.
@barakravid.bsky.social
@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
@barakravid.bsky.social
@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges.
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
Diplomatic dilemmas as Gulf states prepare to greet Trump
The region has changed since his first term, but the US president will find newly confident nations there
www.ft.com
May 1, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges.
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges.
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
Diplomatic dilemmas as Gulf states prepare to greet Trump
The region has changed since his first term, but the US president will find newly confident nations there
www.ft.com
May 1, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges.
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy!
www.ft.com/content/a813...
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Very dark outlook for post-Assad Syria.
Fragile, fragmented militia governance already dragged down by a failing economy, now made so much worse by Trump’s double sucker punches: end of USAID removes 40% of aid, and this back-and-forth sanctions tango deters desperately needed foreign investment.
Fragile, fragmented militia governance already dragged down by a failing economy, now made so much worse by Trump’s double sucker punches: end of USAID removes 40% of aid, and this back-and-forth sanctions tango deters desperately needed foreign investment.
Good @wsj.com read on current U.S. conditions for continued (not expanded) Syria sanctions relief. Demands for Russia’s expulsion were dropped, new demands for Palestinian groups’ expulsion added.
@mgordonwsj.bsky.social @nancyayoussef.bsky.social
@jmalsin.bsky.social
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
@mgordonwsj.bsky.social @nancyayoussef.bsky.social
@jmalsin.bsky.social
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
U.S. Toughens Demands on Syria’s New Islamist-Led Leadership
The Trump administration wants Damascus to crack down on extremists and expel Palestinian militants in return for a limited easing of sanctions.
www.wsj.com
April 19, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Very dark outlook for post-Assad Syria.
Fragile, fragmented militia governance already dragged down by a failing economy, now made so much worse by Trump’s double sucker punches: end of USAID removes 40% of aid, and this back-and-forth sanctions tango deters desperately needed foreign investment.
Fragile, fragmented militia governance already dragged down by a failing economy, now made so much worse by Trump’s double sucker punches: end of USAID removes 40% of aid, and this back-and-forth sanctions tango deters desperately needed foreign investment.
Reposted by Emile El-Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
I have a new report out with @carnegieendowment.org on the current state of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 project, highlighting areas of achievement but with an argument for greater bottom-up accountability to curb its excesses (spending and otherwise).
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Vision 2030 in the Home Stretch: Clear Achievements yet Limited Accountability
Vision 2030 has made undeniable progress in building a Saudi economy that can “live without oil”—but with five years to go, the program is in danger of enriching elites while overlooking the needs of ...
carnegieendowment.org
March 11, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I have a new report out with @carnegieendowment.org on the current state of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 project, highlighting areas of achievement but with an argument for greater bottom-up accountability to curb its excesses (spending and otherwise).
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Congratulations to my IISS colleagues for the launch of Military Balance 2025 — all you need to know about global defence trends
February 12, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Congratulations to my IISS colleagues for the launch of Military Balance 2025 — all you need to know about global defence trends
Reading about these tech geniuses descending on US government agencies to 'fix' them takes me back 2 decades to the run-up to the Iraq war.
February 7, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Reading about these tech geniuses descending on US government agencies to 'fix' them takes me back 2 decades to the run-up to the Iraq war.
Any analyst, any media outlet, any politician who uses sanitized words such as ‘transfer’ or ‘relocation’ to describe what is ethnic cleansing is complicit in this egregious policy.
Trump just said he’s calling for the full forcible transfer of all 1.8 million Gazans out of the strip and says “The US will take over the Gaza Strip”
February 5, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Any analyst, any media outlet, any politician who uses sanitized words such as ‘transfer’ or ‘relocation’ to describe what is ethnic cleansing is complicit in this egregious policy.