Ellen Werble
ellen-werblehp.bsky.social
Ellen Werble
@ellen-werblehp.bsky.social
Health policy and budget wonk. After 14 years working for the health team at the Congressional Budget Office, I started my own consulting firm: Werble Health Policy. Also on LinkedIn
Reposted by Ellen Werble
This is why people keep saying the OBBBA kicks 17 million off health insurance. Rs are using "current policy" to extend expiring Trump tax cuts and keep the costs lower on paper. But they have declined to extend expiring enhanced premium tax credits in the ACA, which are also current tax policy.
For those who haven't been closely following how many people will lose health insurance from Republican actions:

CBO projects 11.8 million more uninsured from the Big Bill.

An additional 5.1 million uninsured from allowing enhanced ACA tax credits to expire and administrative actions.
June 30, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
This language is nearly identical to Sec 112 of House-passed 2017 repeal bill (AHCA) entitled "Repeal of Medicaid Expansion." Starting 1/1/31 would eliminate the 90% match for the #Medicaid expansion except for those already enrolled. Would cause states to drop expansion due to massive cost shift.
News: Sen. Rick Scott amendment lowering federal match for Medicaid expansion has been filed. Would be "grandfathering" in beneficiaries until 2030 at 90 percent match, lower state-specific rate kicks in in 2031. Cost savings of $313 billion

full copy: cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6...
cdn.sanity.io
June 29, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
Medicaid pays for 41% of all births. The highest share is in Louisiana, where Medicaid covers 64% of births.
www.kff.org/medicaid/iss...
May 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
As more Medicaid and ACA changes pour in tonight from Congress, one thing strikes me as a former state human services secretary. For them or against them, the assumption that states will implement so many new policies and programs at once on time and as designed is, well, fantasy.
May 22, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
First Q from advisory panel: - how would new regulatory framework impacts this, if new strain selected, would that require new trials?...
FDA's Jerry Weir said too premature too discuss this. - question off topic.

I don't see how this is off topic. #healthpolicy
May 22, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Brush up on your Byrd Rules because I expect this reconciliation bill to get a thorough Byrd Bath.

The Senate Parliamentarian makes the decisions not CBO. However, CBO scores are important because reconciliation is meant to change the budget and the “extraneous matter” tests ensure that.
May 22, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
“In foreign countries, the vaccines are more broadly approved, similar to what FDA has done in the past, and then restricted on public health grounds. That’s where CDC could have stepped in, had FDA not usurped its role.”
May 21, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
If House Republican Medicaid and ACA cuts pass, and enhanced ACA premium tax credits aren't extended, the state with the biggest increase in the number of people uninsured: Florida.

www.kff.org/affordable-c...
May 20, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
A technical footnote for the wonks: CBO has not yet estimated the interaction with 1 million more uninsured from the Energy and Commerce ACA changes and 2.1 million from the Ways and Means ACA changes. So, the net change might be somewhat different from the sum of the two.
May 20, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
President Donald Trump said that under his new executive order, prescription drug prices will be reduced “almost immediately.”

KFF Health News and @politifact.bsky.social rate this claim as Mostly False.

Our HealthCheck explains why. ⤵️ kffhealthnews.org/news/article...
Trump Exaggerates Speed and Certainty of Prescription Drug Price Reductions - KFF Health News
According to the timeline in the May 12 executive order, prescription drug price reductions would not happen "almost immediately,” but rather could take months or years. And extending the savings to A...
kffhealthnews.org
May 20, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
1 pm tomorrow vaccine world... new FDA vax framework

t.co/eWwwTt1RG9
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbRGlEsbKQ4
t.co
May 19, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
this post aged well - committee voted the bill down (for now). More negotiations to come...
for those watching the Budget Committee markup - the committee is NOT allowed to alter the bill, its job is purely ministerial; to combine committees' work and send to Rules. That said, they DO have to approve it (and as of now don't appear to have the votes)
May 16, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
Graham on user fees: its worth exploring whether and how restructuring and simplifying the user fee programs may help rebuild trust in the FDA and its decisions and take advantage of the upcoming reauthorization to do so.
May 16, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
for those watching the Budget Committee markup - the committee is NOT allowed to alter the bill, its job is purely ministerial; to combine committees' work and send to Rules. That said, they DO have to approve it (and as of now don't appear to have the votes)
May 16, 2025 at 3:12 PM
The budget fight over the current fiscal year and rhetoric around impoundment was highlighted in the exchange between the Secretary and Rep DeLauro
sparks flying at the House Approps hearing with RFKjr. You might want to follow along (if you can't we'll do a live recap this afternoon of this AND Senate HELP) appropriations.house.gov/schedule/hea...
Budget Hearing - U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
appropriations.house.gov
May 14, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Reposted by Ellen Werble
New CBO estimates of Medicaid ideas floated by Republicans would reduce federal spending but result in potentially millions more people uninsured.

CBO assumes states would replace about half of the federal cuts, which would also lead to cuts in other programs or higher state taxes.
May 7, 2025 at 2:23 PM