"With no substantial initiatives targeting low-income households, the living standards and living conditions of the working poor will continue to stagnate."

Our @econarnab.bsky.social on the #SpringStatement and UK living standards 🏘👇

10/n 🧵

If econ memes had a Nobel Prize, @khoavuumn.bsky.social would have won it by popular acclaim. He's beloved in our community of online economists for his kindness and wit. Definite follow.

Our Living Standards event is in one week! ⏰

We'll hear from expert panelists @helenbarnard.bsky.social, Elizabeth Campbell, Tim Leunig and our @maxmosley.bsky.social, chaired by ITV's Joel Hills 👏💬

Sign up here ⬇ @trusselluk.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/event/why-ar...

OUT NOW! Our Latest NIER Issue: Climate Sustainability 🌱📃

Volume 266 is introduced by our @econarnab.bsky.social & Adrian Pabst and @uniofstandrews.bsky.social's J. Roderick McCrorie ✍

Read their article "#Climate Sustainability - Evidence and Policy" here ⬇🔓
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The Forum has begun! 🎬Keep following this thread for updates 🧵

Don't forget that our UK Economic Outlook is now available to read in full ⬇⚡

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

#UKEconomy #GlobalEconomy #EconTwitter
@RoyalEconSoc

1/n

And finally, over to @econarnab.bsky.social to present our outlook for the #DevolvedNations, English Regions and UK #households 💬

Arnab starts with key messages on living standards ⬇

For the bottom 20% of households, living standards will not return to 2021-22 levels before 2027 🏘

11/n

Our UK Economic Outlook will be published tomorrow! ⚡ A comprehensive forecast on the #UKeconomy in 2025 and beyond 📊

In the meantime, don't miss this blog, where @econstevem.bsky.social asks Benjamin Caswell for an overview as to what we might expect to see in it 📈👇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/outlook...

We've created a starter pack for all of the economics journals on Bluesky. Please nominate other journals to join the list.

go.bsky.app/4kR21vX

This paper by the late, great Nick Crafts, on competition and productivity in the UK, well worth a read: cepr.org/voxeu/column...

This comment reanalyzes data from Oprea (2014) and draws different conclusions. What should AER do? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

1️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/PhcYuC/1" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">Retract original
2️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/PhcYuC/2" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">Publish whole comment (37 pp)
3️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/PhcYuC/3" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">Publish shorter comment
4️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/PhcYuC/4" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">Do nothing

📊 Show results

Forthcoming article by @clement-s-bellet.bsky.social and Eve Colson-Sihra "Does Inequality Affect the Needs of the Poor? @eeanews.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1093/jeea...

Great piece on model collapse - the output passed the LGTM test (looks good to me) but has errors. This output then trains further LLMs and then weakens LLMs and ultimately the model collapses (garbage in, garbage out)
open.substack.com/pub/garymarc...

link 📈🤖
Univariate-Guided Sparse Regression (Chatterjee, Hastie, Tibshirani) In this paper, we introduce ``UniLasso'' -- a novel statistical method for regression. This two-stage approach preserves the signs of the univariate coefficients and leverages their magnitude. Both of these properties ar

Firms struggle to forecast, often making over-optimistic inaccurate forecasts. Running a 5-year 6,000 firm experiment finds that simple data interventions can yield large improvements, from Nicholas Bloom, Mihai A. Codreanu, and Robert A. Fletcher https://www.nber.org/papers/w33384

New working paper alert: "Financing Innovation: The Role of Patent Examination". @steve-bill-econ.bsky.social, Christopher Coyle and I have been working on this for quite a while now. We are excited to have a full draft for your enjoyment! www.quceh.org.uk/uploads/1/0/...