But there are some killer stats that I'd be using if I were in gov't:
- half of UK recessions since 1970 were due to fossil fuel price spikes. By 2040 households will be an order of magnitude less exposed to these.
- a 2022 style gas price spike might raise bills by 4-9%. That's economic security.

So, what are all these low carbon heating sources going to be?
There is a LOT in this set of charts, but some key things to pull out:
1) About 80% of homes get individual heat pumps by 2050 - with communal heat pumps (3%), district heat networks (9%) and direct electric heating (12%) doing the rest

2) Upfront heat pump costs fall gradually, but not dramatically, and still cost around £7k in 2050. This is in line with Nesta's work.
However, electricity gets dramatically cheaper (starting with rebalancing of levies), so that heat pumps give you massive savings on energy bills

(Note - it is all electric heat, no hydrogen, not much of anything else).

Next, here is the big picture for heat and buildings.

The overwhelming majority of emissions reductions (70%) come from installing low carbon heating. New homes (15%) is next, also linked to low carbon heat.
Energy efficiency (12% total) plays a smaller role in the 7th Carbon Budget.

First, here's the big picture of where emissions reductions need to come from between now and 2050. The short answer: about 60% of them need to come from electrification (of vehicles, buildings, industry).

There's a lot in this package of consultations. Some of it directly on fuel poverty. Some of it with broader implications on energy market, local authority enforcement etc. For now, just delighted to see it released into the wild & and the prospect of discussion, decision & action.

This is so positive to see from @elpinchbeck.bsky.social and the CCC. Understanding, acknowledging & addressing the unavoidable distributional impacts on low income households properly, & from the start, will allow Govt to act faster & bolder. If not, you build hesitancy & caution into policy.

Today's announcement is a clear indication of travel however, and will help make meaningful progress toward decarbonising buildings and improving energy efficiency - particularly for some of the less well off in society. Welcome news.

🏆 £5m to Ideal towards building heat pump manufacturing capacity in the the UK.

📑 Consultations announced on increasing the minimum energy efficiency standard for rented homes by 2030 and new standards to improve the efficiency standards for heat pumps and boilers.

📜 Changes to the rules to allow homes to install heat pumps <1m from the property boundary without planning permission. Estimates from Octopus Energy had suggested as many as 1 in 3 heat pump installations were subject to this issue, adding cost and delays to installations.

💴 Increase in the Boiler Upgrade Scheme budget by £30m this year and £295m next year. This will enable a further 40k households to receive the £7.5k discount off the purchase price of a new heat pump in the next two years.