Kim Wood
@drkimwood.bsky.social
Associate professor at UArizona. Hurricane mortician. Open science + Python + scicomm + 🐈 enthusiast. Personal account. Occasionally salty. Always tired. Helpful to a fault.
With ERA5 data updated through the end of October, I plotted potential intensity values averaged over the Caribbean Sea relative to Hurricane Melissa.
Values area-wide were well above normal before the hurricane, producing a couple peak values (since 1981), with a sharp drop in the wake of Melissa.
Values area-wide were well above normal before the hurricane, producing a couple peak values (since 1981), with a sharp drop in the wake of Melissa.
November 6, 2025 at 4:25 PM
With ERA5 data updated through the end of October, I plotted potential intensity values averaged over the Caribbean Sea relative to Hurricane Melissa.
Values area-wide were well above normal before the hurricane, producing a couple peak values (since 1981), with a sharp drop in the wake of Melissa.
Values area-wide were well above normal before the hurricane, producing a couple peak values (since 1981), with a sharp drop in the wake of Melissa.
Since each season's percentage is relative to that season's activity, here's a complementary chart that shows the number of named storm days (TS+), hurricane days (cat 1+), and major hurricane days (cat 3+).
The active 2005 and 2020 seasons stand out more clearly in this version!
The active 2005 and 2020 seasons stand out more clearly in this version!
October 30, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Since each season's percentage is relative to that season's activity, here's a complementary chart that shows the number of named storm days (TS+), hurricane days (cat 1+), and major hurricane days (cat 3+).
The active 2005 and 2020 seasons stand out more clearly in this version!
The active 2005 and 2020 seasons stand out more clearly in this version!
Inspired by Brian's chart, I investigated how much time North Atlantic named storms spent at hurricane and at major hurricane strength during 1966-2025.
Blue = proportion for "hurricane time" (category 1-5).
Orange = proportion for "major hurricane time" (category 3-5).
More details in alt text!
Blue = proportion for "hurricane time" (category 1-5).
Orange = proportion for "major hurricane time" (category 3-5).
More details in alt text!
October 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Inspired by Brian's chart, I investigated how much time North Atlantic named storms spent at hurricane and at major hurricane strength during 1966-2025.
Blue = proportion for "hurricane time" (category 1-5).
Orange = proportion for "major hurricane time" (category 3-5).
More details in alt text!
Blue = proportion for "hurricane time" (category 1-5).
Orange = proportion for "major hurricane time" (category 3-5).
More details in alt text!
A nearly one-week animation for Hurricane Melissa with infrared (IR) imagery on the left and its maximum wind speed (intensity) evolution on the right. The animation briefly pauses at landfall in Jamaica.
IR images extend about 600 km from the center of the storm to illustrate its shape evolution.
IR images extend about 600 km from the center of the storm to illustrate its shape evolution.
October 30, 2025 at 3:03 PM
A nearly one-week animation for Hurricane Melissa with infrared (IR) imagery on the left and its maximum wind speed (intensity) evolution on the right. The animation briefly pauses at landfall in Jamaica.
IR images extend about 600 km from the center of the storm to illustrate its shape evolution.
IR images extend about 600 km from the center of the storm to illustrate its shape evolution.
One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
October 28, 2025 at 5:27 PM
One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
I am at a loss for words as I watch Hurricane Melissa continue intensifying today. I'm thinking of the many folks in its path who will face compound flooding and wind hazards over an extended period of time.
(Animation shows 1-minute GOES mesoscale imagery since sunrise on October 27.)
(Animation shows 1-minute GOES mesoscale imagery since sunrise on October 27.)
October 27, 2025 at 5:55 PM
I am at a loss for words as I watch Hurricane Melissa continue intensifying today. I'm thinking of the many folks in its path who will face compound flooding and wind hazards over an extended period of time.
(Animation shows 1-minute GOES mesoscale imagery since sunrise on October 27.)
(Animation shows 1-minute GOES mesoscale imagery since sunrise on October 27.)
Side-by-side geostationary images (visible to left, infrared to right) since sunrise highlight category 5 Hurricane Melissa's painstakingly slow motion over extremely warm water. Despite its current proximity to Jamaica, landfall isn't expected until **tomorrow morning**.
October 27, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Side-by-side geostationary images (visible to left, infrared to right) since sunrise highlight category 5 Hurricane Melissa's painstakingly slow motion over extremely warm water. Despite its current proximity to Jamaica, landfall isn't expected until **tomorrow morning**.
"Damaging winds and heavy rainfall... will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive... Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected." 💔😔
October 26, 2025 at 4:37 PM
"Damaging winds and heavy rainfall... will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive... Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected." 💔😔
Melissa has rapidly intensified into a category 4 major hurricane according to preliminary NHC estimates:
- from 60 to 120 kt in 24 hours (⬆️ 60 kt)
- from 90 to 110 kt in just 6 hours (⬆️ 20 kt)
This slow-moving storm will not only deliver damaging winds & storm surge but also catastrophic rainfall.
- from 60 to 120 kt in 24 hours (⬆️ 60 kt)
- from 90 to 110 kt in just 6 hours (⬆️ 20 kt)
This slow-moving storm will not only deliver damaging winds & storm surge but also catastrophic rainfall.
October 26, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Melissa has rapidly intensified into a category 4 major hurricane according to preliminary NHC estimates:
- from 60 to 120 kt in 24 hours (⬆️ 60 kt)
- from 90 to 110 kt in just 6 hours (⬆️ 20 kt)
This slow-moving storm will not only deliver damaging winds & storm surge but also catastrophic rainfall.
- from 60 to 120 kt in 24 hours (⬆️ 60 kt)
- from 90 to 110 kt in just 6 hours (⬆️ 20 kt)
This slow-moving storm will not only deliver damaging winds & storm surge but also catastrophic rainfall.
6-hourly infrared satellite images of Tropical Storm #Melissa show its improved organization over the past 24 hours, including convection (thunderstorms) becoming more centered instead of shifted to the storm's east side.
Its slow movement + heavy rain will likely produce catastrophic flooding.
Its slow movement + heavy rain will likely produce catastrophic flooding.
October 24, 2025 at 7:33 PM
6-hourly infrared satellite images of Tropical Storm #Melissa show its improved organization over the past 24 hours, including convection (thunderstorms) becoming more centered instead of shifted to the storm's east side.
Its slow movement + heavy rain will likely produce catastrophic flooding.
Its slow movement + heavy rain will likely produce catastrophic flooding.
As of October 20, water in excess of 30°C extended 60 meters below Tropical Storm Melissa.
A slow-moving storm will upwell water (bring deeper water up to the surface) because its winds are actively pushing surface water away, but these Argo float observations show that deeper water is also warm!
A slow-moving storm will upwell water (bring deeper water up to the surface) because its winds are actively pushing surface water away, but these Argo float observations show that deeper water is also warm!
October 23, 2025 at 3:32 PM
As of October 20, water in excess of 30°C extended 60 meters below Tropical Storm Melissa.
A slow-moving storm will upwell water (bring deeper water up to the surface) because its winds are actively pushing surface water away, but these Argo float observations show that deeper water is also warm!
A slow-moving storm will upwell water (bring deeper water up to the surface) because its winds are actively pushing surface water away, but these Argo float observations show that deeper water is also warm!
This 36-hour storm-following animation of Tropical Storm Melissa shows its ongoing lopsided structure. However, watch the persistent *deep* convection occurring on the east (right) side of the storm near the end of the loop. Those ripples are gravity waves from the cloud tops hitting the tropopause!
October 22, 2025 at 3:53 PM
This 36-hour storm-following animation of Tropical Storm Melissa shows its ongoing lopsided structure. However, watch the persistent *deep* convection occurring on the east (right) side of the storm near the end of the loop. Those ripples are gravity waves from the cloud tops hitting the tropopause!
Newly-formed Melissa's trajectory depends on how quickly it organizes, how much it's affected by dry air + shear, and its future (highly uncertain) track.
That said, there's a lot of warm water along the storm's potential path. Hazards related to heavy rainfall are the largest concern at this time.
That said, there's a lot of warm water along the storm's potential path. Hazards related to heavy rainfall are the largest concern at this time.
October 21, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Newly-formed Melissa's trajectory depends on how quickly it organizes, how much it's affected by dry air + shear, and its future (highly uncertain) track.
That said, there's a lot of warm water along the storm's potential path. Hazards related to heavy rainfall are the largest concern at this time.
That said, there's a lot of warm water along the storm's potential path. Hazards related to heavy rainfall are the largest concern at this time.
Tucson is (barely) in the cone for Hurricane Priscilla! ... this storm won't be anything like a hurricane when whatever's left of it reaches the southwest U.S., but its moisture is expected to support thunderstorms during a month (October) that otherwise tends to be pretty dry over here.
October 7, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Tucson is (barely) in the cone for Hurricane Priscilla! ... this storm won't be anything like a hurricane when whatever's left of it reaches the southwest U.S., but its moisture is expected to support thunderstorms during a month (October) that otherwise tends to be pretty dry over here.
Though warmth in the Caribbean Sea is not at 2023 or 2024 levels as of yesterday (5 October 2025), it's noticeably beyond what's been observed via area-wide sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in other years since 1982.
October 6, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Though warmth in the Caribbean Sea is not at 2023 or 2024 levels as of yesterday (5 October 2025), it's noticeably beyond what's been observed via area-wide sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in other years since 1982.
I've used this for some time. It's... a bit terrifying to discover just how many tracking attempts are happening without us being aware. 😬
September 30, 2025 at 11:24 PM
I've used this for some time. It's... a bit terrifying to discover just how many tracking attempts are happening without us being aware. 😬
In need of a doomscrolling break? Curious about future tropical activity? Take a few minutes to drink in this wealth of information offered by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, updated today!
Details on an erratic MJO, upcoming Central American gyre, and more~
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pre...
Details on an erratic MJO, upcoming Central American gyre, and more~
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pre...
September 30, 2025 at 6:57 PM
In need of a doomscrolling break? Curious about future tropical activity? Take a few minutes to drink in this wealth of information offered by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, updated today!
Details on an erratic MJO, upcoming Central American gyre, and more~
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pre...
Details on an erratic MJO, upcoming Central American gyre, and more~
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pre...
Mid-level water vapor imagery (GOES-East Band 9) helps visualize the fluid nature of the atmosphere!
This animation spans the past week (September 20-27) from Gabrielle's rapid intensification through newly-minted TD Nine. Storm labels show the name when it's tropical but numbers when it isn't.
This animation spans the past week (September 20-27) from Gabrielle's rapid intensification through newly-minted TD Nine. Storm labels show the name when it's tropical but numbers when it isn't.
September 27, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Mid-level water vapor imagery (GOES-East Band 9) helps visualize the fluid nature of the atmosphere!
This animation spans the past week (September 20-27) from Gabrielle's rapid intensification through newly-minted TD Nine. Storm labels show the name when it's tropical but numbers when it isn't.
This animation spans the past week (September 20-27) from Gabrielle's rapid intensification through newly-minted TD Nine. Storm labels show the name when it's tropical but numbers when it isn't.
When a hurricane can take off, boy does it take off:
the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season story.
Watch Humberto also rapidly intensify from a lopsided tropical storm to a major hurricane.
Notable intensity changes:
- 40 to 125 kt within 48 hours
- 65 to 125 kt within 24 hours
the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season story.
Watch Humberto also rapidly intensify from a lopsided tropical storm to a major hurricane.
Notable intensity changes:
- 40 to 125 kt within 48 hours
- 65 to 125 kt within 24 hours
September 27, 2025 at 2:54 PM
When a hurricane can take off, boy does it take off:
the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season story.
Watch Humberto also rapidly intensify from a lopsided tropical storm to a major hurricane.
Notable intensity changes:
- 40 to 125 kt within 48 hours
- 65 to 125 kt within 24 hours
the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season story.
Watch Humberto also rapidly intensify from a lopsided tropical storm to a major hurricane.
Notable intensity changes:
- 40 to 125 kt within 48 hours
- 65 to 125 kt within 24 hours
Tucson skies. ❤️🔥
September 27, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Tucson skies. ❤️🔥
The tropical wave labeled 94L (no, I won't name it in advance) has warm water, moderate to low vertical wind shear, and plenty of moist air ahead of it. The system is partly over land today, delivering heavy rain and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
September 26, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The tropical wave labeled 94L (no, I won't name it in advance) has warm water, moderate to low vertical wind shear, and plenty of moist air ahead of it. The system is partly over land today, delivering heavy rain and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Why have I been making changes? I'm including more ocean regions! This webpage now features a subtropical North Atlantic domain. The anomaly charts still need work, but all domains depicting values like the one below should be functional again.
kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTm...
kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTm...
September 25, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Why have I been making changes? I'm including more ocean regions! This webpage now features a subtropical North Atlantic domain. The anomaly charts still need work, but all domains depicting values like the one below should be functional again.
kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTm...
kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTm...
The tropical wave with a 90% chance of developing in the next 7 days (93L) may traverse a 30-40-meter deep layer of warm water (~29°C and above).
The ocean isn't quite as warm ahead of 94L (60% chance in 7 days) but still supportive.
That said, warm water is only one "ingredient" for development!
The ocean isn't quite as warm ahead of 94L (60% chance in 7 days) but still supportive.
That said, warm water is only one "ingredient" for development!
September 23, 2025 at 1:58 PM
The tropical wave with a 90% chance of developing in the next 7 days (93L) may traverse a 30-40-meter deep layer of warm water (~29°C and above).
The ocean isn't quite as warm ahead of 94L (60% chance in 7 days) but still supportive.
That said, warm water is only one "ingredient" for development!
The ocean isn't quite as warm ahead of 94L (60% chance in 7 days) but still supportive.
That said, warm water is only one "ingredient" for development!
Watch Gabrielle evolve from a lopsided tropical storm to a major hurricane in less than 48 hours.
Circle extends about 600 km from the storm center. Intensity values are interpolated to hourly resolution to match the infrared images, rounded to 5-kt increments in line with NHC precision.
Circle extends about 600 km from the storm center. Intensity values are interpolated to hourly resolution to match the infrared images, rounded to 5-kt increments in line with NHC precision.
September 22, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Watch Gabrielle evolve from a lopsided tropical storm to a major hurricane in less than 48 hours.
Circle extends about 600 km from the storm center. Intensity values are interpolated to hourly resolution to match the infrared images, rounded to 5-kt increments in line with NHC precision.
Circle extends about 600 km from the storm center. Intensity values are interpolated to hourly resolution to match the infrared images, rounded to 5-kt increments in line with NHC precision.
I finally crafted daily potential intensity charts like my daily SST charts, but because they rely on ERA5 data, they feel perpetually 5 days out of date. 😅
Anyway, here's PI for the Caribbean Sea since June 1 next to SSTs for context.
Anyway, here's PI for the Caribbean Sea since June 1 next to SSTs for context.
September 19, 2025 at 10:41 PM
I finally crafted daily potential intensity charts like my daily SST charts, but because they rely on ERA5 data, they feel perpetually 5 days out of date. 😅
Anyway, here's PI for the Caribbean Sea since June 1 next to SSTs for context.
Anyway, here's PI for the Caribbean Sea since June 1 next to SSTs for context.