Dr. Amy H Butler
@drahbutler.bsky.social
Atmospheric Scientist, atmos dynamics/chemistry-climate, polar vortex expert. Views expressed are mine.
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
The ensemble mean of today's IFS subseasonal forecast now predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming in reliable records, beating 28 November 1968.
Will this verify? 👀
charts.ecmwf.int/products/ext...
Will this verify? 👀
charts.ecmwf.int/products/ext...
November 13, 2025 at 8:17 PM
The ensemble mean of today's IFS subseasonal forecast now predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming in reliable records, beating 28 November 1968.
Will this verify? 👀
charts.ecmwf.int/products/ext...
Will this verify? 👀
charts.ecmwf.int/products/ext...
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
It was well forecast for ~10 days, and the spv stratospheric polar vortex has now doubled in strength this past week
EC analysis showing W winds 10hpa 60N increasing from around 35mph to around 70mph
Models have also been forecasting a weakening going forward now..one to watch
EC analysis showing W winds 10hpa 60N increasing from around 35mph to around 70mph
Models have also been forecasting a weakening going forward now..one to watch
November 8, 2025 at 6:01 PM
It was well forecast for ~10 days, and the spv stratospheric polar vortex has now doubled in strength this past week
EC analysis showing W winds 10hpa 60N increasing from around 35mph to around 70mph
Models have also been forecasting a weakening going forward now..one to watch
EC analysis showing W winds 10hpa 60N increasing from around 35mph to around 70mph
Models have also been forecasting a weakening going forward now..one to watch
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Interesting to see so many ECMWF ensemble members producing a major sudden stratospheric warming event, where the 60N zonal wind at 10 hPa reverses, in late Nov or 1st half Dec.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
November 4, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Interesting to see so many ECMWF ensemble members producing a major sudden stratospheric warming event, where the 60N zonal wind at 10 hPa reverses, in late Nov or 1st half Dec.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
UGH! When will it end. 😭
"Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services."
nsidc.org/data/user-re...
"Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services."
nsidc.org/data/user-re...
October 15, 2025 at 6:54 PM
UGH! When will it end. 😭
"Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services."
nsidc.org/data/user-re...
"Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services."
nsidc.org/data/user-re...
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
QBOi-SNAP-QUOCA workshop: improved simulations of the stratosphere for better predictions of weather, climate and extreme events
Meeting report from the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social APARC workshop in Cambridge earlier this year
Free to view in @rmets.org Weather: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Meeting report from the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social APARC workshop in Cambridge earlier this year
Free to view in @rmets.org Weather: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
QBOi‐SNAP‐QUOCA workshop: improved simulations of the stratosphere for better predictions of weather, climate and extreme events
Click on the article title to read more.
doi.org
October 23, 2025 at 9:09 AM
QBOi-SNAP-QUOCA workshop: improved simulations of the stratosphere for better predictions of weather, climate and extreme events
Meeting report from the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social APARC workshop in Cambridge earlier this year
Free to view in @rmets.org Weather: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Meeting report from the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social APARC workshop in Cambridge earlier this year
Free to view in @rmets.org Weather: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Great explainer by Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social on the emerging Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over Antarctica, noting it is just one climate driver at play and does *not* lock in another 2019-like spring/summer.
(Thanks also to Martin for citing our 2019 SSW article with Harry and EunPa)
(Thanks also to Martin for citing our 2019 SSW article with Harry and EunPa)
The stratospheric polar vortex high above Antarctica has rapidly heated up. These sudden bursts of heat can bring rapid weather changes in Australia.
👉 theconversation.com/air-tem...
👉 theconversation.com/air-tem...
September 30, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Great explainer by Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social on the emerging Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over Antarctica, noting it is just one climate driver at play and does *not* lock in another 2019-like spring/summer.
(Thanks also to Martin for citing our 2019 SSW article with Harry and EunPa)
(Thanks also to Martin for citing our 2019 SSW article with Harry and EunPa)
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
September 23, 2025 at 5:01 PM
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
This map shows temperature departures averaged over the last 3 months. What's it like in your area?
🟥 warmer than average
🟦 colder than average
Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
🟥 warmer than average
🟦 colder than average
Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
September 24, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This map shows temperature departures averaged over the last 3 months. What's it like in your area?
🟥 warmer than average
🟦 colder than average
Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
🟥 warmer than average
🟦 colder than average
Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
A little bit of good news for you. And a reminder that we *can* solve big, global problems--when we want to. 🧪
(by @meghanbartels.bsky.social)
(by @meghanbartels.bsky.social)
The Ozone Hole Is Steadily Shrinking because of Global Efforts
After nearly 40 years of global efforts, the ozone hole over Antarctica is continuing to heal
www.scientificamerican.com
September 16, 2025 at 7:59 PM
A little bit of good news for you. And a reminder that we *can* solve big, global problems--when we want to. 🧪
(by @meghanbartels.bsky.social)
(by @meghanbartels.bsky.social)
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Many vital federal climate websites and data are increasingly difficult to access. A new nonproft organization called @climate.us seeks to fill the gap. My Labor Day thoughts in Forbes on their emergence.
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
The Rise Of Climate.us
A new nonprofit effort seeks to preserve and expand the functionality of a former popular government climate website. Can they succeed?
www.forbes.com
September 1, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Many vital federal climate websites and data are increasingly difficult to access. A new nonproft organization called @climate.us seeks to fill the gap. My Labor Day thoughts in Forbes on their emergence.
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
New paper from @robertwlee.bsky.social, Andrew Charlton-Perez @unirdg-met.bsky.social and me, published today in @agu.org GRL
doi.org/10.1029/2025...
New paper from @robertwlee.bsky.social, Andrew Charlton-Perez @unirdg-met.bsky.social and me, published today in @agu.org GRL
doi.org/10.1029/2025...
Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Using a stratospheric nudging protocol with operational subseasonal systems, we assess weather impacts from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs)
SSWs consistently shift the atmospheric state towa...
doi.org
August 5, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
New paper from @robertwlee.bsky.social, Andrew Charlton-Perez @unirdg-met.bsky.social and me, published today in @agu.org GRL
doi.org/10.1029/2025...
New paper from @robertwlee.bsky.social, Andrew Charlton-Perez @unirdg-met.bsky.social and me, published today in @agu.org GRL
doi.org/10.1029/2025...
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Also, NOAA Labs and Cooperative Institutes develop the warning software used by the TWCs (as well as NWS).
gsl.noaa.gov/research/pro...
gsl.noaa.gov/research/pro...
July 30, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Also, NOAA Labs and Cooperative Institutes develop the warning software used by the TWCs (as well as NWS).
gsl.noaa.gov/research/pro...
gsl.noaa.gov/research/pro...
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
It is an extraordinary loss of intellectual expertise that the American people invested millions in developing
Every scientist who earns a graduate degree in the US is the product of an investment by the public
This is like setting money on fire
Every scientist who earns a graduate degree in the US is the product of an investment by the public
This is like setting money on fire
4,000 NASA workers are leaving through deferred resignation. "The cuts amount to an estimated 20% of NASA's workforce" www.npr.org/2025/07/26/n...
Nearly 4,000 NASA employees opt to leave agency through deferred resignation program
The employees who have chosen to leave the agency amount to about 20% of NASA's workforce.
www.npr.org
July 28, 2025 at 8:17 PM
It is an extraordinary loss of intellectual expertise that the American people invested millions in developing
Every scientist who earns a graduate degree in the US is the product of an investment by the public
This is like setting money on fire
Every scientist who earns a graduate degree in the US is the product of an investment by the public
This is like setting money on fire
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
If you think I've forgotten about the hurricane satellites, think again. The Navy is permanently unplugging them this week, on the brink of the busiest stretch of the season. There's so much more to this story, and I have the latest scoop. ⬇️
Navy Set to Unplug Critical Hurricane Satellites this Week
Abrupt termination of satellite data by U.S. Department of Defense sends forecasters scrambling for a fix on the brink of the busiest stretch of the hurricane season
michaelrlowry.substack.com
July 28, 2025 at 10:57 PM
If you think I've forgotten about the hurricane satellites, think again. The Navy is permanently unplugging them this week, on the brink of the busiest stretch of the season. There's so much more to this story, and I have the latest scoop. ⬇️
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Turkey recorded its highest temperature on record on Friday with 50.5°C recorded in Silopi ⚠️📈
This exceeds the previous record of 49.5°C recorded on 15th August 2023 🌡️
This extreme heat is bringing serious health impacts and giving a very high risk of wildfires 🔥
This exceeds the previous record of 49.5°C recorded on 15th August 2023 🌡️
This extreme heat is bringing serious health impacts and giving a very high risk of wildfires 🔥
July 27, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Turkey recorded its highest temperature on record on Friday with 50.5°C recorded in Silopi ⚠️📈
This exceeds the previous record of 49.5°C recorded on 15th August 2023 🌡️
This extreme heat is bringing serious health impacts and giving a very high risk of wildfires 🔥
This exceeds the previous record of 49.5°C recorded on 15th August 2023 🌡️
This extreme heat is bringing serious health impacts and giving a very high risk of wildfires 🔥
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Playing around with a close-up B&W edit of the best footage I have ever captured on this Earth. Hoping compression doesn't prevent y'all from seeing the incredible rain of debris.
Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala (March 2023)
Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala (March 2023)
June 30, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Playing around with a close-up B&W edit of the best footage I have ever captured on this Earth. Hoping compression doesn't prevent y'all from seeing the incredible rain of debris.
Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala (March 2023)
Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala (March 2023)
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Melting over 80.6% of the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This is the highest value in our data set, which starts in 1981.
@polarportal.bsky.social
@polarportal.bsky.social
July 25, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Melting over 80.6% of the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This is the highest value in our data set, which starts in 1981.
@polarportal.bsky.social
@polarportal.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Today is the top of the month release of the NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion (EDD), and it will be the first time in 11 years that Climate.gov isn't releasing an associated ENSO blog update. It would have contained an updated version of this graph. [1/4]
July 11, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Today is the top of the month release of the NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion (EDD), and it will be the first time in 11 years that Climate.gov isn't releasing an associated ENSO blog update. It would have contained an updated version of this graph. [1/4]
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Big up to @rdzombak.bsky.social for bringing eyes to this story. 🧪
So many people beyond my little cohort of fellows are impacted by slowdowns at NOAA. America is rapidly losing footing as a leader in climate science and we all are paying the cost.
So many people beyond my little cohort of fellows are impacted by slowdowns at NOAA. America is rapidly losing footing as a leader in climate science and we all are paying the cost.
Recipients of a U.S. Climate Science Fellowship Are Put on Unpaid Leave
www.nytimes.com
July 9, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Big up to @rdzombak.bsky.social for bringing eyes to this story. 🧪
So many people beyond my little cohort of fellows are impacted by slowdowns at NOAA. America is rapidly losing footing as a leader in climate science and we all are paying the cost.
So many people beyond my little cohort of fellows are impacted by slowdowns at NOAA. America is rapidly losing footing as a leader in climate science and we all are paying the cost.
Please consider submitting an abstract to our AGU session "A092 - Stratospheric Dynamics, Aerosol Processes, and Interactions with the Troposphere". There's a lot of new interesting science on this topic to share! agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...
July 9, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Please consider submitting an abstract to our AGU session "A092 - Stratospheric Dynamics, Aerosol Processes, and Interactions with the Troposphere". There's a lot of new interesting science on this topic to share! agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
As of today, all current NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellows have been furloughed due to the Dept of Commerce not releasing the funding for the program. In addition no new Fellows were awarded this year. cpaess.ucar.edu/cgc
NOAA Climate & Global Change (C&GC) Postdoctoral Program | Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System ScienceNOAA Climate & Global Change (C&GC) Postdoctoral Program | Cooperative Progra...
cpaess.ucar.edu
July 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
As of today, all current NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellows have been furloughed due to the Dept of Commerce not releasing the funding for the program. In addition no new Fellows were awarded this year. cpaess.ucar.edu/cgc
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Proposed NOAA budget would shutter Boulder’s world-class climate research laboratories www.cpr.org/2025/07/01/p... via @sambrasch.bsky.social
Proposed NOAA budget would shutter Boulder’s world-class climate research laboratories
The plan follows through on Project 2025, which called to radically shrink the agency’s research arm.
www.cpr.org
July 1, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Proposed NOAA budget would shutter Boulder’s world-class climate research laboratories www.cpr.org/2025/07/01/p... via @sambrasch.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Our final updates have been posted to the Climate.gov website, and this will be our final post to our social media channels.
June 27, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Our final updates have been posted to the Climate.gov website, and this will be our final post to our social media channels.