Carroll Doherty
@doherty13.bsky.social
Polling, political data, former journalist. Former director of political research, Pew Research Center.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
The reported peace plan developed by envoys for Trump and Putin sounds more like a list of Moscow's demands than a compromise between two combatants.
It's not clear what if anything Russia is willing to concede even as it insists that Ukraine give up a lot. www.ft.com/content/2353...
It's not clear what if anything Russia is willing to concede even as it insists that Ukraine give up a lot. www.ft.com/content/2353...
US and Russian officials draft new peace plan for Ukraine
Proposal envisages major concessions by Kyiv and rollback of American military assistance
www.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:26 PM
The reported peace plan developed by envoys for Trump and Putin sounds more like a list of Moscow's demands than a compromise between two combatants.
It's not clear what if anything Russia is willing to concede even as it insists that Ukraine give up a lot. www.ft.com/content/2353...
It's not clear what if anything Russia is willing to concede even as it insists that Ukraine give up a lot. www.ft.com/content/2353...
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.
September 10, 2025 at 7:39 PM
It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
“.. Unemployment rates among tech workers between 20 and 30 years old jumped by 3 percentage points since the start of this year .. , “a .. larger increase than we’ve seen for other young workers,” he said.
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/a...
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/a...
August 7, 2025 at 3:37 PM
“.. Unemployment rates among tech workers between 20 and 30 years old jumped by 3 percentage points since the start of this year .. , “a .. larger increase than we’ve seen for other young workers,” he said.
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/a...
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/a...
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Given the other questions on this survey, it's reasonable the researchers would want to check for people who might be yanking their chain
July 30, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Given the other questions on this survey, it's reasonable the researchers would want to check for people who might be yanking their chain
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
A Washington Post poll found most Americans strongly support releasing all files in the Epstein case and suspect the documents contain embarrassing information about President Trump, Democrats and billionaires.
We texted nearly 1,100 Americans about Trump and the Epstein files. Here’s what they said.
A Washington Post poll found that most Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of issues related to the Epstein files.
www.washingtonpost.com
July 29, 2025 at 12:27 PM
A Washington Post poll found most Americans strongly support releasing all files in the Epstein case and suspect the documents contain embarrassing information about President Trump, Democrats and billionaires.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
A few days ago, the new Washpost Opinion boss extolled Bezos's shift in the direction of the page and warned that the changes will be "unwelcome for some"
Which is what managers say when they're trying to get people to quit before they get fired.
Which is what managers say when they're trying to get people to quit before they get fired.
July 17, 2025 at 2:47 PM
A few days ago, the new Washpost Opinion boss extolled Bezos's shift in the direction of the page and warned that the changes will be "unwelcome for some"
Which is what managers say when they're trying to get people to quit before they get fired.
Which is what managers say when they're trying to get people to quit before they get fired.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
While MAGA is ubiquitous, little is known about what it means to the American public. Ten years on, what do Americans think when they hear or read this phrase?
(@jesserhodesumass.bsky.social @eichen.bsky.social Douglas Rice, Gregory Wall and Tatishe Nteta)
theconversation.com/what-maga-me...
(@jesserhodesumass.bsky.social @eichen.bsky.social Douglas Rice, Gregory Wall and Tatishe Nteta)
theconversation.com/what-maga-me...
What MAGA means to Americans
Ten years after Donald Trump launched the Make America Great Again movement, a poll offers some insight into what the slogan means to Republicans and Democrats.
theconversation.com
July 6, 2025 at 1:19 AM
While MAGA is ubiquitous, little is known about what it means to the American public. Ten years on, what do Americans think when they hear or read this phrase?
(@jesserhodesumass.bsky.social @eichen.bsky.social Douglas Rice, Gregory Wall and Tatishe Nteta)
theconversation.com/what-maga-me...
(@jesserhodesumass.bsky.social @eichen.bsky.social Douglas Rice, Gregory Wall and Tatishe Nteta)
theconversation.com/what-maga-me...
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
The Economist/YouGov poll in April found that 11% of Trump voters are medicaid recipients
July 2, 2025 at 6:08 PM
The Economist/YouGov poll in April found that 11% of Trump voters are medicaid recipients
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Across 12 high-income countries, public satisfaction in democracy has declined over time. In 2017, a median of 49% were satisfied with the functioning of democracy. By 2025, just 35% say the same thing.
www.pewresearch.org/...
www.pewresearch.org/...
Dissatisfaction with democracy remains widespread in many nations
Across 12 high-income countries, a median of 64% of adults say they are dissatisfied with the way their democracy is working, while a median of 35% are satisfied.
www.pewresearch.org
July 1, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Across 12 high-income countries, public satisfaction in democracy has declined over time. In 2017, a median of 49% were satisfied with the functioning of democracy. By 2025, just 35% say the same thing.
www.pewresearch.org/...
www.pewresearch.org/...
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Interesting analysis.
“Pew found that Trump’s success with Hispanics was primarily due to changes in turnout rather than voters changing their preferences. Latino voters who voted in ‘20 but not ‘24 backed Biden by 2-1. While Trump won Latino voters who skipped ‘20 by 23 points.”
“Pew found that Trump’s success with Hispanics was primarily due to changes in turnout rather than voters changing their preferences. Latino voters who voted in ‘20 but not ‘24 backed Biden by 2-1. While Trump won Latino voters who skipped ‘20 by 23 points.”
A New 2024 Analysis Shows How Trump Upended the Rules of Voter Turnout
For most of modern American political history, one thing about presidential elections was gospel: When more people vote, the Democratic Party benefits.But in 2024, President Donald Trump’s dramatic ga...
www.cookpolitical.com
June 26, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Interesting analysis.
“Pew found that Trump’s success with Hispanics was primarily due to changes in turnout rather than voters changing their preferences. Latino voters who voted in ‘20 but not ‘24 backed Biden by 2-1. While Trump won Latino voters who skipped ‘20 by 23 points.”
“Pew found that Trump’s success with Hispanics was primarily due to changes in turnout rather than voters changing their preferences. Latino voters who voted in ‘20 but not ‘24 backed Biden by 2-1. While Trump won Latino voters who skipped ‘20 by 23 points.”
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
A new Pew Research Center study solidified what pre-election surveys suggested, that President Trump was able to build a far more diverse Republican coalition in the 2024 election than ever before. Here's what else the research showed.
Trump Won by Turning Out Voters and Building a Diverse Coalition, Report Finds
A new Pew Research Center study found that 85 percent of President Trump’s 2020 supporters came out to vote for him again, a better rate than Democrats pulled off.
trib.al
June 26, 2025 at 9:30 PM
A new Pew Research Center study solidified what pre-election surveys suggested, that President Trump was able to build a far more diverse Republican coalition in the 2024 election than ever before. Here's what else the research showed.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Murder remains down more than 21 percent in the 30 cities that reported the most murders to the FBI in 2023 (the most recent official release). Murder is down in 26 of the 30 cities. All but 4 cities have data through late May and all but 1 (c'mon Phoenix!) have data through April.
June 4, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Murder remains down more than 21 percent in the 30 cities that reported the most murders to the FBI in 2023 (the most recent official release). Murder is down in 26 of the 30 cities. All but 4 cities have data through late May and all but 1 (c'mon Phoenix!) have data through April.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Smart look at what we can and can't extrapolate right now from Democrats' in-party perception weakness (and also a good aside on how changes in survey mode can have unexpected effects on trendlines)
2 key findings on Democrats’ brand problem from the new CNN poll.
(Aaron Blake, CNN)
www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/p...
(Aaron Blake, CNN)
www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/p...
2 key findings on Democrats’ brand problem from the new CNN poll | CNN Politics
There’s new evidence that the Democratic Party’s reputation is in a bad place. That doesn’t mean the party is doomed, electorally speaking. There’s plenty of reason to doubt that, given lots of histor...
www.cnn.com
June 3, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Smart look at what we can and can't extrapolate right now from Democrats' in-party perception weakness (and also a good aside on how changes in survey mode can have unexpected effects on trendlines)
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
I don't know that it's especially difficult to conceptualize the use case for surveys that gather data on a) alcohol consumption or b) internet usage among the American public
NEW: The DOGE team of President Trump's billionaire adviser Elon Musk says in an X post that a review of federal government surveys conducted by the Census Bureau has resulted in five being "terminated." I've asked the bureau's public information office for details about those five surveys
May 20, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I don't know that it's especially difficult to conceptualize the use case for surveys that gather data on a) alcohol consumption or b) internet usage among the American public
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Must-read on the state of the polling landscape
New article from me about polling in 2024/going forward.
Are the pollsters who did the best in 2024 and 2020 on to something? Or are they just pushing their data toward Republicans and getting lucky when everyone else gets hit by nonresponse?
Link: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
🧵
Are the pollsters who did the best in 2024 and 2020 on to something? Or are they just pushing their data toward Republicans and getting lucky when everyone else gets hit by nonresponse?
Link: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
🧵
May 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Must-read on the state of the polling landscape
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Conservative and Liberal Americans flatly reject authoritarian rule.
May 18, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Conservative and Liberal Americans flatly reject authoritarian rule.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
RIP Joe Nye, the dean of American political scientists who coined the term “soft power” — the idea that America’s global influence was more than its military might. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
Joseph Nye, Political Scientist Who Extolled ‘Soft Power,’ Dies at 88
www.nytimes.com
May 9, 2025 at 8:27 PM
RIP Joe Nye, the dean of American political scientists who coined the term “soft power” — the idea that America’s global influence was more than its military might. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...
Was looking thru Gallup 1975 polling data (for fall of Saigon) & found this:
Party ID (a year after Nixon resigned)
Dem 46%
Rep 22%
Ind 22%
Educational pattern was reverse of today: Dems’ narrowest edge, 35%-27% among college grads, widest (59%-20%) among ‘grade school’ grads.
Party ID (a year after Nixon resigned)
Dem 46%
Rep 22%
Ind 22%
Educational pattern was reverse of today: Dems’ narrowest edge, 35%-27% among college grads, widest (59%-20%) among ‘grade school’ grads.
April 28, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Was looking thru Gallup 1975 polling data (for fall of Saigon) & found this:
Party ID (a year after Nixon resigned)
Dem 46%
Rep 22%
Ind 22%
Educational pattern was reverse of today: Dems’ narrowest edge, 35%-27% among college grads, widest (59%-20%) among ‘grade school’ grads.
Party ID (a year after Nixon resigned)
Dem 46%
Rep 22%
Ind 22%
Educational pattern was reverse of today: Dems’ narrowest edge, 35%-27% among college grads, widest (59%-20%) among ‘grade school’ grads.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
This is a nicely thorough overview:
"When respondents are forced to choose between two options — whether they approve or disapprove of DOGE — as many as 60 percent of respondents express negative sentiment."
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/p...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/p...
What Polls Say About DOGE and Elon Musk
People like the idea of cutting government waste. But they dislike Mr. Musk, and they’re down on the Department of Government Efficiency.
www.nytimes.com
April 22, 2025 at 10:50 PM
This is a nicely thorough overview:
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
One very clear change from our October/November 2024 survey of Canadians to our March/April 2025 survey of those same (n=1,181) respondents is the 10 percentage point jump in those saying being Canadian is their single most important identity.
April 22, 2025 at 5:16 PM
One very clear change from our October/November 2024 survey of Canadians to our March/April 2025 survey of those same (n=1,181) respondents is the 10 percentage point jump in those saying being Canadian is their single most important identity.
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
And predictably, this "stat" - again, reflecting only readers of Nature who filled out a form - is now turning up in other stories as though it's based on an actual survey, which it is not.
(The bigger story itself is, of course, far more important and troubling: www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...)
(The bigger story itself is, of course, far more important and troubling: www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...)
April 22, 2025 at 12:20 PM
And predictably, this "stat" - again, reflecting only readers of Nature who filled out a form - is now turning up in other stories as though it's based on an actual survey, which it is not.
(The bigger story itself is, of course, far more important and troubling: www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...)
(The bigger story itself is, of course, far more important and troubling: www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...)
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
The @WSJ headline says it all: Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal. @hannaherinlang.bsky.social www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal
Few think the administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain.
www.wsj.com
April 22, 2025 at 12:25 PM
The @WSJ headline says it all: Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal. @hannaherinlang.bsky.social www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
% who are extremely/very concerned about Ukraine being defeated and taken over by Russia
🔵 Democrats: 62%
🔴 Republicans: 25%
% who are extremely/very concerned about Russia invading other countries in the region
🔵 Democrats: 66%
🔴 Republicans: 29%
www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...
🔵 Democrats: 62%
🔴 Republicans: 25%
% who are extremely/very concerned about Russia invading other countries in the region
🔵 Democrats: 66%
🔴 Republicans: 29%
www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...
April 19, 2025 at 12:49 PM
% who are extremely/very concerned about Ukraine being defeated and taken over by Russia
🔵 Democrats: 62%
🔴 Republicans: 25%
% who are extremely/very concerned about Russia invading other countries in the region
🔵 Democrats: 66%
🔴 Republicans: 29%
www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...
🔵 Democrats: 62%
🔴 Republicans: 25%
% who are extremely/very concerned about Russia invading other countries in the region
🔵 Democrats: 66%
🔴 Republicans: 29%
www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
Public opinion of Pope Francis over the years
Pope Francis' highest favorability rating was 90% in February 2015. In our most recent poll – conducted Feb. 3-9, 2025 – 78% of U.S. Catholics expressed a positive view of him. www.pewresearch.org/...
Pope Francis and public opinion: Key findings from our surveys
At least 80% of Catholics have expressed a favorable opinion of Pope Francis in 10 of the 15 U.S. surveys in which we have asked about the pope since 2013.
www.pewresearch.org
April 21, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Public opinion of Pope Francis over the years
Reposted by Carroll Doherty
A good time to read Gene Healy's The Cult of the Presidency, which traces the history of this notion, which starts with Woodrow Wilson www.cato.org/books/the-cu...
April 20, 2025 at 8:55 PM
A good time to read Gene Healy's The Cult of the Presidency, which traces the history of this notion, which starts with Woodrow Wilson www.cato.org/books/the-cu...