Dallin Overstreet
@dloverstreet.bsky.social
Football and public policy guy.
I love diving into data on safety net programs to figure out how to make them more effective and efficient!
PhD Public Admin and Policy @ ASU 2025 🔱 | Check me out on Substack!
https://open.substack.com/pub/polimetrics
I love diving into data on safety net programs to figure out how to make them more effective and efficient!
PhD Public Admin and Policy @ ASU 2025 🔱 | Check me out on Substack!
https://open.substack.com/pub/polimetrics
The Trump admin wants to push the idea that immigrants are “draining” welfare programs.
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
December 1, 2025 at 3:10 PM
The Trump admin wants to push the idea that immigrants are “draining” welfare programs.
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
Who actually controls your city’s budget? Many cities look identical on paper but operate completely different.
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
November 24, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Who actually controls your city’s budget? Many cities look identical on paper but operate completely different.
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
We should get more strategic in the ways we are slowing the spread of 287(g) agreements. With the financial incentives rolled out in October, it’s likely only a matter of time before a new wave of state and local agencies sign on.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
November 10, 2025 at 9:22 PM
We should get more strategic in the ways we are slowing the spread of 287(g) agreements. With the financial incentives rolled out in October, it’s likely only a matter of time before a new wave of state and local agencies sign on.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
About 40% of SNAP recipients are children under 18! I don’t think there’s any justification under any circumstances to purposefully cut food to children.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
November 9, 2025 at 5:11 PM
About 40% of SNAP recipients are children under 18! I don’t think there’s any justification under any circumstances to purposefully cut food to children.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
It is inhumane to withhold 2,500,000,000 meals to Americans over the next month.
About 40% of those meals would go to children under 18. I don’t think anyone should be comfortable with withholding food from kids.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
About 40% of those meals would go to children under 18. I don’t think anyone should be comfortable with withholding food from kids.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
November 9, 2025 at 4:46 PM
It is inhumane to withhold 2,500,000,000 meals to Americans over the next month.
About 40% of those meals would go to children under 18. I don’t think anyone should be comfortable with withholding food from kids.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
About 40% of those meals would go to children under 18. I don’t think anyone should be comfortable with withholding food from kids.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
While counties with large metro areas in CA and AZ have higher total counts of SNAP participants, rural counties tend to have higher percentages of their population participating in the program.
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
November 5, 2025 at 9:00 PM
While counties with large metro areas in CA and AZ have higher total counts of SNAP participants, rural counties tend to have higher percentages of their population participating in the program.
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
It is not true at all that immigrants are putting an excessive strain on the SNAP program.
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
November 4, 2025 at 5:37 PM
It is not true at all that immigrants are putting an excessive strain on the SNAP program.
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
California’s unemployment insurance program is still in debt from pandemic era loans, causing employer UI payroll taxes to be higher than what is normal.
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
November 1, 2025 at 2:34 PM
California’s unemployment insurance program is still in debt from pandemic era loans, causing employer UI payroll taxes to be higher than what is normal.
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
When the federal government shut down at the start of October, the Trump administration promised it would start cutting “Democrat programs”.
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
October 30, 2025 at 7:04 PM
When the federal government shut down at the start of October, the Trump administration promised it would start cutting “Democrat programs”.
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
What drives rapid policy adoption?
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
October 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
What drives rapid policy adoption?
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
ICE 287(g) agreements grew 8x in 9 months, but they didn’t spread randomly.
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
October 6, 2025 at 5:32 PM
ICE 287(g) agreements grew 8x in 9 months, but they didn’t spread randomly.
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
Since Job Openings peaked in 2022, we’ve had a steady decline to current levels at around pre-pandemic era levels.
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
October 3, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Since Job Openings peaked in 2022, we’ve had a steady decline to current levels at around pre-pandemic era levels.
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
Interesting YoY action on growth in prices paid by US businesses (input prices) and prices they charge consumers (output prices)!
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
September 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Interesting YoY action on growth in prices paid by US businesses (input prices) and prices they charge consumers (output prices)!
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
There’s a lot of variation across the country in terms of how prepared states are for the next recession with their unemployment insurance programs.
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
September 24, 2025 at 4:00 AM
There’s a lot of variation across the country in terms of how prepared states are for the next recession with their unemployment insurance programs.
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession levels while actual inflation remains low. What gives?
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
September 23, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession levels while actual inflation remains low. What gives?
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
Consumer sentiment is currently near all time lows, worse than during the Great Recession and near the worst of the Pandemic era.
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
September 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
Consumer sentiment is currently near all time lows, worse than during the Great Recession and near the worst of the Pandemic era.
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
The US unemployment insurance system has been grinding towards insolvency practically since the day it was created.
States have not increased taxes enough during good times to offset high benefit payment costs during recession, especially since the 1990s!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/is-one-yea...
States have not increased taxes enough during good times to offset high benefit payment costs during recession, especially since the 1990s!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/is-one-yea...
September 3, 2025 at 2:20 AM
The US unemployment insurance system has been grinding towards insolvency practically since the day it was created.
States have not increased taxes enough during good times to offset high benefit payment costs during recession, especially since the 1990s!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/is-one-yea...
States have not increased taxes enough during good times to offset high benefit payment costs during recession, especially since the 1990s!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/is-one-yea...
The guns need to go.
My kid’s life is more important than your gun.
My kid’s life is more important than your gun.
August 28, 2025 at 4:12 AM
The guns need to go.
My kid’s life is more important than your gun.
My kid’s life is more important than your gun.
It’s a really weird contrast coming over here from Twitter. Why is everyone so pessimistic about AI and LLMs here?
They work if you implement them well!
They work if you implement them well!
August 19, 2025 at 7:10 PM
It’s a really weird contrast coming over here from Twitter. Why is everyone so pessimistic about AI and LLMs here?
They work if you implement them well!
They work if you implement them well!