Dallin Overstreet
@dloverstreet.bsky.social
Football and public policy guy.
I love diving into data on safety net programs to figure out how to make them more effective and efficient!
PhD Public Admin and Policy @ ASU 2025 🔱 | Check me out on Substack!
https://open.substack.com/pub/polimetrics
I love diving into data on safety net programs to figure out how to make them more effective and efficient!
PhD Public Admin and Policy @ ASU 2025 🔱 | Check me out on Substack!
https://open.substack.com/pub/polimetrics
The Trump admin wants to push the idea that immigrants are “draining” welfare programs.
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
December 1, 2025 at 3:10 PM
The Trump admin wants to push the idea that immigrants are “draining” welfare programs.
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...
Who actually controls your city’s budget? Many cities look identical on paper but operate completely different.
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
November 24, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Who actually controls your city’s budget? Many cities look identical on paper but operate completely different.
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
Who benefits from tariffs? And who gets hurt?
Come read about it here!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Come read about it here!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
The Tariff Winners and Losers: A State-by-State Analysis
Series on Tariffs
open.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Who benefits from tariffs? And who gets hurt?
Come read about it here!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Come read about it here!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Why are we doing this to people? This is horrible.
Parents shouldn’t have to be worried about being kidnapped and unable to take care of their own kids. Kids shouldn’t have to live with that fear either.
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...
Parents shouldn’t have to be worried about being kidnapped and unable to take care of their own kids. Kids shouldn’t have to live with that fear either.
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...
As deportation fears rise, immigrant parents ask: Who cares for my kids?
More parents — from the undocumented to U.S. citizens — are rushing to make temporary guardianship arrangements, lawyers said.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:26 AM
Why are we doing this to people? This is horrible.
Parents shouldn’t have to be worried about being kidnapped and unable to take care of their own kids. Kids shouldn’t have to live with that fear either.
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...
Parents shouldn’t have to be worried about being kidnapped and unable to take care of their own kids. Kids shouldn’t have to live with that fear either.
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...
This was a really good read for understanding how people suffering from the uncertainty around SNAP and the shutdown feel.
We need stronger social safety nets at the state and local level. Ones that can’t be commandeered by politicians with bad intentions.
apple.news/A44ATWR6zSW-...
We need stronger social safety nets at the state and local level. Ones that can’t be commandeered by politicians with bad intentions.
apple.news/A44ATWR6zSW-...
I’m an American relying on food stamps. This country has turned us into lab rats — Guardian US
I’m one of 41 million people who need Snap to make ends meet. For weeks, the administration has turned our survival into a game: will they eat, or won’t they?
apple.news
November 11, 2025 at 6:04 PM
This was a really good read for understanding how people suffering from the uncertainty around SNAP and the shutdown feel.
We need stronger social safety nets at the state and local level. Ones that can’t be commandeered by politicians with bad intentions.
apple.news/A44ATWR6zSW-...
We need stronger social safety nets at the state and local level. Ones that can’t be commandeered by politicians with bad intentions.
apple.news/A44ATWR6zSW-...
While counties with large metro areas in CA and AZ have higher total counts of SNAP participants, rural counties tend to have higher percentages of their population participating in the program.
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
November 5, 2025 at 9:00 PM
While counties with large metro areas in CA and AZ have higher total counts of SNAP participants, rural counties tend to have higher percentages of their population participating in the program.
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
#snap #shutdown
polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
It is not true at all that immigrants are putting an excessive strain on the SNAP program.
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
November 4, 2025 at 5:37 PM
It is not true at all that immigrants are putting an excessive strain on the SNAP program.
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.
White people make up 35% of participants.
Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...
#snap
California’s unemployment insurance program is still in debt from pandemic era loans, causing employer UI payroll taxes to be higher than what is normal.
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
November 1, 2025 at 2:34 PM
California’s unemployment insurance program is still in debt from pandemic era loans, causing employer UI payroll taxes to be higher than what is normal.
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
How solvent is your state’s program?
polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...
#recession #taxes #unemployment
When the federal government shut down at the start of October, the Trump administration promised it would start cutting “Democrat programs”.
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
October 30, 2025 at 7:04 PM
When the federal government shut down at the start of October, the Trump administration promised it would start cutting “Democrat programs”.
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Voting in Maricopa County, AZ?
Prop 409 adds about a $25/yr tax to the median priced home in the county.
Provocative roadside signs don’t give you the data you need. Make an informed decision and use my tax estimate calculator for your home!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/propositio...
Prop 409 adds about a $25/yr tax to the median priced home in the county.
Provocative roadside signs don’t give you the data you need. Make an informed decision and use my tax estimate calculator for your home!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/propositio...
Proposition 409 Analysis
Property Tax Increase in Maricopa County, Arizona
polimetrics.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Voting in Maricopa County, AZ?
Prop 409 adds about a $25/yr tax to the median priced home in the county.
Provocative roadside signs don’t give you the data you need. Make an informed decision and use my tax estimate calculator for your home!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/propositio...
Prop 409 adds about a $25/yr tax to the median priced home in the county.
Provocative roadside signs don’t give you the data you need. Make an informed decision and use my tax estimate calculator for your home!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/propositio...
Remember when Trump said they’d be cutting Democrats programs during the shutdown?
Well… he has been! The @nytimes released data showing the districts affected by the cuts, but not the voting margins or demographics affected.
Check out my analysis!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Well… he has been! The @nytimes released data showing the districts affected by the cuts, but not the voting margins or demographics affected.
Check out my analysis!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
The Politics and Demographics Behind Trump’s Funding Cuts
Who Really Got Hit?
polimetrics.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Remember when Trump said they’d be cutting Democrats programs during the shutdown?
Well… he has been! The @nytimes released data showing the districts affected by the cuts, but not the voting margins or demographics affected.
Check out my analysis!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Well… he has been! The @nytimes released data showing the districts affected by the cuts, but not the voting margins or demographics affected.
Check out my analysis!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...
Fed gov shutdown = no labor data?
Google searches for unemployment benefits track closely with continued claims and can fill the gap.
Recent uptick in searches likely reflects federal layoffs/furloughs but could signal broader market impact.
Full analysis: polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
Google searches for unemployment benefits track closely with continued claims and can fill the gap.
Recent uptick in searches likely reflects federal layoffs/furloughs but could signal broader market impact.
Full analysis: polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
Unemployment Claims and Google Search Trends
Week Ending October 25, 2025 (Estimated)
polimetrics.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Fed gov shutdown = no labor data?
Google searches for unemployment benefits track closely with continued claims and can fill the gap.
Recent uptick in searches likely reflects federal layoffs/furloughs but could signal broader market impact.
Full analysis: polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
Google searches for unemployment benefits track closely with continued claims and can fill the gap.
Recent uptick in searches likely reflects federal layoffs/furloughs but could signal broader market impact.
Full analysis: polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...
Curious how local law enforcement decide to make agreements with ICE? Check out my latest post on policy diffusion!
Neighboring counties opting in is the biggest predictor, with high debt to revenue ratios and demographics influencing as well!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
Neighboring counties opting in is the biggest predictor, with high debt to revenue ratios and demographics influencing as well!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
Where 287(g) Agreements Spread Next: Testing the Fiscal Stress Hypothesis
Policy Diffusion - Pt 4/4
polimetrics.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Curious how local law enforcement decide to make agreements with ICE? Check out my latest post on policy diffusion!
Neighboring counties opting in is the biggest predictor, with high debt to revenue ratios and demographics influencing as well!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
Neighboring counties opting in is the biggest predictor, with high debt to revenue ratios and demographics influencing as well!
polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...
What drives rapid policy adoption?
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
October 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
What drives rapid policy adoption?
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
Localities copying neighbors
Learning from peers’ experience
State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible
ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months
Latest in my policy diffusion series:
polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...
ICE 287(g) agreements grew 8x in 9 months, but they didn’t spread randomly.
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
October 6, 2025 at 5:32 PM
ICE 287(g) agreements grew 8x in 9 months, but they didn’t spread randomly.
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.
Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...
Since Job Openings peaked in 2022, we’ve had a steady decline to current levels at around pre-pandemic era levels.
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
October 3, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Since Job Openings peaked in 2022, we’ve had a steady decline to current levels at around pre-pandemic era levels.
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...
Reposted by Dallin Overstreet
The agent admits he treats immigrants like "they're animals" and that he tells his kids that they are animals "all the time"
September 27, 2025 at 10:23 PM
The agent admits he treats immigrants like "they're animals" and that he tells his kids that they are animals "all the time"
Reposted by Dallin Overstreet
Appalling, appalling video. I genuinely think the NYPD should investigate for assault. There was no call at all for level of violence. She perhaps brushed him with her hands but she was not posing a threat at all.
I was back at 26 Federal Plaza today, where an ICE agent violently threw this bereft woman to the ground in front of her kids. She had not touched him. She did not pose any threat. She had to be taken to the hospital. (🎥: Elias Eliahu)
September 25, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Appalling, appalling video. I genuinely think the NYPD should investigate for assault. There was no call at all for level of violence. She perhaps brushed him with her hands but she was not posing a threat at all.
Interesting YoY action on growth in prices paid by US businesses (input prices) and prices they charge consumers (output prices)!
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
September 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Interesting YoY action on growth in prices paid by US businesses (input prices) and prices they charge consumers (output prices)!
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.
Reposted by Dallin Overstreet
The Trump administration instructed federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs if the government shuts down Oct. 1, after federal funding runs out. https://wapo.st/48zk5qN
September 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The Trump administration instructed federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs if the government shuts down Oct. 1, after federal funding runs out. https://wapo.st/48zk5qN
There’s a lot of variation across the country in terms of how prepared states are for the next recession with their unemployment insurance programs.
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
September 24, 2025 at 4:00 AM
There’s a lot of variation across the country in terms of how prepared states are for the next recession with their unemployment insurance programs.
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!
open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...
Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession levels while actual inflation remains low. What gives?
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
September 23, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession levels while actual inflation remains low. What gives?
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.
The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.
polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
Skattebo!!!
This guy just doesn’t go down, doesn’t matter who’s trying to tackle him!
This guy just doesn’t go down, doesn’t matter who’s trying to tackle him!
September 22, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Skattebo!!!
This guy just doesn’t go down, doesn’t matter who’s trying to tackle him!
This guy just doesn’t go down, doesn’t matter who’s trying to tackle him!
Consumer sentiment is currently near all time lows, worse than during the Great Recession and near the worst of the Pandemic era.
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
September 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
Consumer sentiment is currently near all time lows, worse than during the Great Recession and near the worst of the Pandemic era.
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
Does the data match what you’re seeing and feeling?
Reposted by Dallin Overstreet
We haven’t seen the text of this yet, but to be clear, the president has literally zero legal authority to impose a $100,000 fee on visas. None. Zip. Zilch.
The only authority Congress has ever given the executive branch here is to charge fees to recover the cost of processing the application.
The only authority Congress has ever given the executive branch here is to charge fees to recover the cost of processing the application.
Trump signs an EO on H-1Bs raising "the fee that companies pay to sponsor H1-B applicants to $100,000"
September 19, 2025 at 10:02 PM
We haven’t seen the text of this yet, but to be clear, the president has literally zero legal authority to impose a $100,000 fee on visas. None. Zip. Zilch.
The only authority Congress has ever given the executive branch here is to charge fees to recover the cost of processing the application.
The only authority Congress has ever given the executive branch here is to charge fees to recover the cost of processing the application.