One addition: I tend to sell 1/3 of my holdings whenever I make a good amount of profit that I really don't want to give back completely. Ideally that 1/3 is what I put in, but obviously that is tough, so typically if I make 50% or so, I take 1/3 out. Just to not lose it all.

And yes: not advice.

I summarized a lot of this in an article on trading a while back. It is still more or less what I use, I only added to this, if you want to read more:

t.co/T4LGsoA9j3

7) Macro considerations

This is difficult. I look at liquidity as published by Cross Border and also have my own expectations re Inflation (I think AI will reduce services inflation massively) and debt issues in the US (I think the US Dollar will have a problem). We'll see.

6) The bubble roof

If we are in a bublle (I don't think we are), these typically end in a violent break out of an already steap upwards channel and price rises 100% in a short time. Then it falls through all previous levels. If this the case now, $BTC would rise to $130k ish.

5) Bitcoin Dominance

During all Bull markets, there comes a period when $BTC dominance falls by a large amount (30% or so) quickly. It is often the last leg when everyone gets excited about the newes alts. When $BTC dominance falls to 40%ish again, I will consider selling alts.

4) Consolidation Drift

In strong Bull markets, periods of digestion will trend upwards (ie higher lows). When this changes to consolidations beginning to make lower highs instead, I will consider reducing positions.

3) Tether Premium

Whenever real demand is strong, $BTC (and $ETH) price in USD is typically higher than $USDT price. It means money coming into the market. Since Trump got elected, we've seen a steady Tether discount. If this flips for more than a few days, I lighten positions.

2) Retail Enthusiasm

Coinbase App Store Position: t.me/coinbaseappsto…
Phantom App Store Position:
t.me/phantom_appsto 

Generally speaking, when popular crypto apps hit the number 1 spot, Bull markets are in their very last leg. Usually there is about 10 days left.

1) Funding Rate Heat Map

coinglass.com/FundingRateHea…

Historically, I cannot remember the market putting in a significant top till this map showed yellow and orange for about a week and a half. When that happens, you can be sure that I will cut my leverage.

Some stock PEs:

PEs:

$AAPL 32x
$NVDA 236x
$META 38x
$TSLA 82x
$AMZN 326x
$NFLX 52x
$MSFT 37x

This is a bit of apples to oranges (no pun intended), but I think it illustrates how the case that $ETH is still massively overvalued v tradfi is harder and harder to make. Not advice.

The good news is you don‘t lose more than you invest. So while Stocks may have an upside to downside of 1.5:1 over time, $BTC & $ETH likely look like 5:1 or 10:1. likelihood of downside MUCH higher than stocks of course.

I still like that as a part of any portfolio. Not advice.

So yes, it is likely that the #altcoins of the hour will always yield more than $BTC or $ETH. But overall, it is probably quite flawed to argue that the potential gains on majors is no longer extremely high. It is.

So are the risks.

A removal of any of these risks (and they are all likely to play out one way or the other over time) will bring more money in and make $BTC a more household name. But probably at much higher prices and lower volatility.

The same is true for $ETH though it‘s use is more broad.

(Last one should be ok though as btc is not a security)

Anyways, the risks are absolutely huge. Why does that imply multiple times returns are possible?

Because all these risks mean a lot of money that would invest in a digital gold alternative is still on the sidelines.

- #Tether implodes due to legal action

These are just the biggest existential ones. There are other risks, slightly less bad, but still bad:

- ETF denied by the SEC for years
- mtGox & DOJ coins get sold on open market in unorderly fashion
- Ripple loses its case v SEC

Small selection of risks:
- EU/US outlaws mining or even use on environmental grounds
- Grayscale goes bankrupt & in some way, $GBTC is wound down and liquidated (ie the assets sold for USD to pay investors)
- Binance & CZ implode on the pending DOJ indictment

Grabbing your handle, selling it to Paolo in 3..2..1