I think it's an overhyped talking point, especially because you can score two low % chances then sit back (like we did against Burnley), which makes xG look worse on aggregate.
But the xG nerds rightly predicted Forest crashing to earth last season, since they were way over-performing xG.
But the xG nerds rightly predicted Forest crashing to earth last season, since they were way over-performing xG.
November 13, 2025 at 9:24 PM
I think it's an overhyped talking point, especially because you can score two low % chances then sit back (like we did against Burnley), which makes xG look worse on aggregate.
But the xG nerds rightly predicted Forest crashing to earth last season, since they were way over-performing xG.
But the xG nerds rightly predicted Forest crashing to earth last season, since they were way over-performing xG.
I would have confidently gotten Lewandowski and Lacazette wrong, but guessed at the last 3.
I think the thing I've learned about xG is that it's trained on these players. Even some of the best finishers are barely beating outpacing their xG.
# s from here: www.pythonfootball.com/p/the-myth-o...
I think the thing I've learned about xG is that it's trained on these players. Even some of the best finishers are barely beating outpacing their xG.
# s from here: www.pythonfootball.com/p/the-myth-o...
November 13, 2025 at 9:22 PM
I would have confidently gotten Lewandowski and Lacazette wrong, but guessed at the last 3.
I think the thing I've learned about xG is that it's trained on these players. Even some of the best finishers are barely beating outpacing their xG.
# s from here: www.pythonfootball.com/p/the-myth-o...
I think the thing I've learned about xG is that it's trained on these players. Even some of the best finishers are barely beating outpacing their xG.
# s from here: www.pythonfootball.com/p/the-myth-o...
In the 11 seasons from '14/15 to 24/25, can you guess which of these players scored more or less goals than their xG would predict?
Lewandowski
Cristiano Ronaldo
Sonny
Lacazette
Aubamayang
Immobile
Cavani
Dzeko
Lewandowski
Cristiano Ronaldo
Sonny
Lacazette
Aubamayang
Immobile
Cavani
Dzeko
November 13, 2025 at 9:05 PM
In the 11 seasons from '14/15 to 24/25, can you guess which of these players scored more or less goals than their xG would predict?
Lewandowski
Cristiano Ronaldo
Sonny
Lacazette
Aubamayang
Immobile
Cavani
Dzeko
Lewandowski
Cristiano Ronaldo
Sonny
Lacazette
Aubamayang
Immobile
Cavani
Dzeko
But if over 20 games, that first team was averaging 10 shots from inside the 6 yard box every game, you'd expect them to start scoring & winning a lot more.
And if that second team only averaged one shot each game, and it was from 40+ yards out, you wouldn't expect them to score & win much.
And if that second team only averaged one shot each game, and it was from 40+ yards out, you wouldn't expect them to score & win much.
November 13, 2025 at 8:54 PM
But if over 20 games, that first team was averaging 10 shots from inside the 6 yard box every game, you'd expect them to start scoring & winning a lot more.
And if that second team only averaged one shot each game, and it was from 40+ yards out, you wouldn't expect them to score & win much.
And if that second team only averaged one shot each game, and it was from 40+ yards out, you wouldn't expect them to score & win much.
This is interesting and I like this push. I'm curious, what do you like the least about xG?
I agree it definitely has some limitations, especially in single games.
In your example, if the 10 shots were point blank and the only goal was from half, the xG would be bonkers.
I agree it definitely has some limitations, especially in single games.
In your example, if the 10 shots were point blank and the only goal was from half, the xG would be bonkers.
November 13, 2025 at 8:54 PM
This is interesting and I like this push. I'm curious, what do you like the least about xG?
I agree it definitely has some limitations, especially in single games.
In your example, if the 10 shots were point blank and the only goal was from half, the xG would be bonkers.
I agree it definitely has some limitations, especially in single games.
In your example, if the 10 shots were point blank and the only goal was from half, the xG would be bonkers.
Just asking. Do people always get what they deserve? Or does luck and circumstance ever play a part?
November 13, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Just asking. Do people always get what they deserve? Or does luck and circumstance ever play a part?
Do you think people always get what they deserve in life?
November 13, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Do you think people always get what they deserve in life?
Oh my god I hadn’t seen this before. Hitting that first time is so insane.
November 13, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Oh my god I hadn’t seen this before. Hitting that first time is so insane.
Reposted by Doug Keith
Definitely. xG tiers are basically:
1. Arsenal
2. City
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool, Crystal Palace
5. Newcastle, Brighton, Spurs, Brentford
6. ManU, Villa, Sunderland, Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham
7. Leeds
8. Forest
9. WHU, Burnley
10. Wolves
1. Arsenal
2. City
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool, Crystal Palace
5. Newcastle, Brighton, Spurs, Brentford
6. ManU, Villa, Sunderland, Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham
7. Leeds
8. Forest
9. WHU, Burnley
10. Wolves
November 10, 2025 at 11:55 PM
Definitely. xG tiers are basically:
1. Arsenal
2. City
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool, Crystal Palace
5. Newcastle, Brighton, Spurs, Brentford
6. ManU, Villa, Sunderland, Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham
7. Leeds
8. Forest
9. WHU, Burnley
10. Wolves
1. Arsenal
2. City
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool, Crystal Palace
5. Newcastle, Brighton, Spurs, Brentford
6. ManU, Villa, Sunderland, Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham
7. Leeds
8. Forest
9. WHU, Burnley
10. Wolves
I have trained my brain to expect breaking news about Spurs when I wake up and look at my phone. It was just trying to preempt me.
November 10, 2025 at 3:52 PM
I have trained my brain to expect breaking news about Spurs when I wake up and look at my phone. It was just trying to preempt me.
Seeing someone film themself celebrating is so gross.
old man yells at cloud is written on a newspaper
ALT: old man yells at cloud is written on a newspaper
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Seeing someone film themself celebrating is so gross.
Same sentiment from my MU supporting friend
November 9, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Same sentiment from my MU supporting friend