There are tons of technocratic AI policy proposals, but little concrete intuitions about the near-term future to motivate those proposals. The result is that the field sometimes feels disembodied, devoid of a concrete vision.

Here is what I think is coming.

My latest, on the AI export controls generally and the diffusion rule in particular.

This regulatory adventure, whatever you think of it on the merits, is a case study in how rules beget more rules—how regulation grows, like a plant or a weed.

A little late, but--my 2025 'lookahead' post is here, covering some of the major AI products, research, and policy I'll be watching this year. I hope you enjoy!

t.co/CZdR8zjsFH

Hyperdimensional is almost a year old! So I wrote a reflection on the first year, covering the origins of the project, SB 1047, where I erred, the impossibility of controlling technocracy, where I see the project going next, and more. Enjoy!

America is charging into an AI policy regime that will slow down adoption of AI, shrink model developers’ addressable market, and could deter frontier AI investment.

It’s one of the worst ways to regulate AI, it could become a national standard soon, and it’s under-discussed.

Today in our respective newsletters, @milesbrundage.bsky.social and I co-author a comment on the EU General-Purpose AI Code of Practice.

We try to offer constructive comments as to how this document--which will likely be a standard for frontier AI dev compliance with the AI Act--can be improved.

awesome book, recommended, especially for people thinking about ai

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a group/report commissioned by Congress, puts an explicit AGI Manhattan Project as their top US policy recommendation.