That's Siambr Hywel, btw. It's the temporary chamber in the old Ty Hywel office block being used until next May, when the main debating hall should be ready for 96 MSs

Yeah I had a couple of "I really don't knows". Quite cautious about it all.

Our live page is still going strong - please visit www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cl...

And... Nathan Gill. The bribery case obviously impacted Reform's media campaign, with the candidate and Farage both addressing it directly at various points, Gill having pled guilty just as the campaign was starting.

Couple of other things

The 50% turnout in the context of Senedd elections is obviously very good for a by-election and better than the less than half that usually shows up. Can May's election now break through the 50% barrier?

Welsh elections have frequently been a question of explaining how interesting is this renewed Labour victory. Now we are asking how small the Labour group could end up being. It's a terrible result for them that tops off a difficult couple of years

Which is... obviously historically something else in its own terms. The fact that this was a two horse race, between a party that had never won the seat and one that barely existed a few years before, is totally bewildering.

Reform's Llyr Powell tried to be positive as he left the count, saying they will form a government next May. If that result was replicated somehow nationally they would be coming back with the 2nd largest group. Things don't work like that but they are still in contention to win.

In the end Reform in a way provided a path to victory for Plaid - with PC encouraging others in the left and centre to pile behind them to stop Farage's lot. It worked, and suggests a strategy next May - harder when there's an election system that's meant to give you choice

We kept hearing it was close from everyone. Reform stuck to that line all night even while Plaid members were struggling to suppress their glee. In the end it was a 3,000+ gap. The reality is that the party went into Caerphilly not having the same background in the area Plaid had

Reform's juggernaut presence made that uncertain. Plaid people you would talk to would say things felt 50/50 during the campaign - unless that was very disciplined expectation management they seemed genuinely nervous they wouldn't be able to overcome Reform's operation.

He's been replaced with Lord Davies, the former Gower MP. Gentry's nomination for re-election was declared invalid because not one Tory area backed him. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A no-deal scenario is relevant now in a way it hasn't been in years gone by - but with ministers raising the risks opposition parties have had to address how unpalatable a scenario that would be

More on whats gone on today here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Morgan and Drakeford were open to talks with the Tories and Plaid respectively. Morgan even praised Darren Millar for his "grown up" letter offering a discussion - you don't see that every day. Drakeford also said he was looking forward to speaking to Plaid's Heledd Fychan

Both the Tories and Plaid's finance spokespeople indicated they didn't want to see a situation where the cuts come to pass. The Tories have made a specific offer based on scrapping stamp duty on primary residences. Drakeford hasn't ruled out amending the tax, but won't scrap it

Gill spoke in the European Parliament in defence of those channels as they came under pressure in Ukraine. It was alleged he was bribed to do that.

He had been stopped in Manchester Airport in 2021. Police were said to find WhatsApp messages between Gill and Voloshyn. Several of the allegations relate to TV channels linked to Viktor Medvedchuk, who is himself reportedly linked to Vladimir Putin.

Nathan Gill appeared in the Old Bailey today to plead guilty to eight charges relating to allegations connected to Oleg Voloshyn, a man who was later described by the US government as a "pawn" of the Russian security services.