David Herdson
@davidherdson.bsky.social
Part-time writer. Political activist. Fan of Bradford City and rail travel (amongst other things). Bibliophile. Dad. List not necessarily in order of importance.
It would be obtuse to *deny* that it's being reflected in actual elections.
- Reform won May's local elections. Most votes, seats, gains, councils. Four narrow misses for mayors; could easily have won all 6.
- Gained Runcorn & Helsby.
- Most seats and gains at local by-elections since May.
- Reform won May's local elections. Most votes, seats, gains, councils. Four narrow misses for mayors; could easily have won all 6.
- Gained Runcorn & Helsby.
- Most seats and gains at local by-elections since May.
October 28, 2025 at 12:34 PM
It would be obtuse to *deny* that it's being reflected in actual elections.
- Reform won May's local elections. Most votes, seats, gains, councils. Four narrow misses for mayors; could easily have won all 6.
- Gained Runcorn & Helsby.
- Most seats and gains at local by-elections since May.
- Reform won May's local elections. Most votes, seats, gains, councils. Four narrow misses for mayors; could easily have won all 6.
- Gained Runcorn & Helsby.
- Most seats and gains at local by-elections since May.
The BBC have made this claim repeatedly this morning, presumably because they can't be bothered doing some actual research.
Henry VIII never met a pope. I don't know if any reigning* 'British' monarch has ever prayed with one before. If so, it would have been well before the 16th century.
Henry VIII never met a pope. I don't know if any reigning* 'British' monarch has ever prayed with one before. If so, it would have been well before the 16th century.
October 23, 2025 at 8:28 AM
The BBC have made this claim repeatedly this morning, presumably because they can't be bothered doing some actual research.
Henry VIII never met a pope. I don't know if any reigning* 'British' monarch has ever prayed with one before. If so, it would have been well before the 16th century.
Henry VIII never met a pope. I don't know if any reigning* 'British' monarch has ever prayed with one before. If so, it would have been well before the 16th century.
It's worth going back to the start.
I read this book on the Fifth Republic recently. It was published in 1961. The risk of political division undermining the stronger structure was seen from the start (understandably, given the Fourth).
But the reality has far exceeded the pessimistic conclusion.
I read this book on the Fifth Republic recently. It was published in 1961. The risk of political division undermining the stronger structure was seen from the start (understandably, given the Fourth).
But the reality has far exceeded the pessimistic conclusion.
October 16, 2025 at 4:12 PM
It's worth going back to the start.
I read this book on the Fifth Republic recently. It was published in 1961. The risk of political division undermining the stronger structure was seen from the start (understandably, given the Fourth).
But the reality has far exceeded the pessimistic conclusion.
I read this book on the Fifth Republic recently. It was published in 1961. The risk of political division undermining the stronger structure was seen from the start (understandably, given the Fourth).
But the reality has far exceeded the pessimistic conclusion.
I've compiled a summary of the worst combined PM/LotO satisfaction ratings on the Mori index.
Only one pair (Thatcher/Foot) ever scored worse than -70 between 1977-2015.
Since then, five have in ten years, with three hitting -90 or worse.
Only one pair (Thatcher/Foot) ever scored worse than -70 between 1977-2015.
Since then, five have in ten years, with three hitting -90 or worse.
October 16, 2025 at 12:07 PM
I've compiled a summary of the worst combined PM/LotO satisfaction ratings on the Mori index.
Only one pair (Thatcher/Foot) ever scored worse than -70 between 1977-2015.
Since then, five have in ten years, with three hitting -90 or worse.
Only one pair (Thatcher/Foot) ever scored worse than -70 between 1977-2015.
Since then, five have in ten years, with three hitting -90 or worse.
But with water, investment has still been routinely higher than pre-privatisation (hence all the debt) - and water quality did improve for much of the period.
It's not a coincidence that bills were allowed to rise more after privatisation. Ministers cut taxes and fund it by restricting investment.
It's not a coincidence that bills were allowed to rise more after privatisation. Ministers cut taxes and fund it by restricting investment.
October 14, 2025 at 4:23 PM
But with water, investment has still been routinely higher than pre-privatisation (hence all the debt) - and water quality did improve for much of the period.
It's not a coincidence that bills were allowed to rise more after privatisation. Ministers cut taxes and fund it by restricting investment.
It's not a coincidence that bills were allowed to rise more after privatisation. Ministers cut taxes and fund it by restricting investment.
Arguably rail isn't a natural monopoly as you can take other forms of transport - and the privatised rail network has been *very* far from perfect.
Even so, passenger numbers, investment, safety, customer experience, even reliability until recently (IIRC): all better. The chart below is striking.
Even so, passenger numbers, investment, safety, customer experience, even reliability until recently (IIRC): all better. The chart below is striking.
October 14, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Arguably rail isn't a natural monopoly as you can take other forms of transport - and the privatised rail network has been *very* far from perfect.
Even so, passenger numbers, investment, safety, customer experience, even reliability until recently (IIRC): all better. The chart below is striking.
Even so, passenger numbers, investment, safety, customer experience, even reliability until recently (IIRC): all better. The chart below is striking.
Thank you.
I shall try to continue to post mildly interesting, occasionally amusing and hopefully insightful takes.
I shall try to continue to post mildly interesting, occasionally amusing and hopefully insightful takes.
October 7, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Thank you.
I shall try to continue to post mildly interesting, occasionally amusing and hopefully insightful takes.
I shall try to continue to post mildly interesting, occasionally amusing and hopefully insightful takes.
I'm aware of that.
Most (though not all) fascists are state-heavy on state economic intervention and direction, and therefore left-wing on the issue. It chimes with their primary authoritarian tendency.
See p38 here of that same manifesto, for example:
Most (though not all) fascists are state-heavy on state economic intervention and direction, and therefore left-wing on the issue. It chimes with their primary authoritarian tendency.
See p38 here of that same manifesto, for example:
October 6, 2025 at 10:51 PM
I'm aware of that.
Most (though not all) fascists are state-heavy on state economic intervention and direction, and therefore left-wing on the issue. It chimes with their primary authoritarian tendency.
See p38 here of that same manifesto, for example:
Most (though not all) fascists are state-heavy on state economic intervention and direction, and therefore left-wing on the issue. It chimes with their primary authoritarian tendency.
See p38 here of that same manifesto, for example:
This below is from the 2005 BNP manifesto.
Spot the difference with current Tory and Reform policy.
(p14 news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp... )
Spot the difference with current Tory and Reform policy.
(p14 news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp... )
October 6, 2025 at 4:04 PM
This below is from the 2005 BNP manifesto.
Spot the difference with current Tory and Reform policy.
(p14 news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp... )
Spot the difference with current Tory and Reform policy.
(p14 news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp... )
Call it for what it is.
Below is Umberto Eco's 14 features of fascism. By my count, Trump ticks at least 12 of them - so far.
Below is Umberto Eco's 14 features of fascism. By my count, Trump ticks at least 12 of them - so far.
September 30, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Call it for what it is.
Below is Umberto Eco's 14 features of fascism. By my count, Trump ticks at least 12 of them - so far.
Below is Umberto Eco's 14 features of fascism. By my count, Trump ticks at least 12 of them - so far.
FWIW, this was the start and end points: the 106 bus from Crigglestone to Wakefield, and arriving in Lednice.
Via Wakefield, Leeds, London, Dover, Calais, Paris, Vienna and Breclav (also innumerable intermediate stops and a re-plan en route due to a missed connection in Paris).
Via Wakefield, Leeds, London, Dover, Calais, Paris, Vienna and Breclav (also innumerable intermediate stops and a re-plan en route due to a missed connection in Paris).
September 15, 2025 at 11:03 AM
FWIW, this was the start and end points: the 106 bus from Crigglestone to Wakefield, and arriving in Lednice.
Via Wakefield, Leeds, London, Dover, Calais, Paris, Vienna and Breclav (also innumerable intermediate stops and a re-plan en route due to a missed connection in Paris).
Via Wakefield, Leeds, London, Dover, Calais, Paris, Vienna and Breclav (also innumerable intermediate stops and a re-plan en route due to a missed connection in Paris).
Yay. I get to roll out my leader replacement model again.
And I agree. Labour isn't ready because although they all know the problem, there's nothing like consensus on what the solution is. The available mechanisms are also quite tricky (unlike the Tories).
And I agree. Labour isn't ready because although they all know the problem, there's nothing like consensus on what the solution is. The available mechanisms are also quite tricky (unlike the Tories).
September 14, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Yay. I get to roll out my leader replacement model again.
And I agree. Labour isn't ready because although they all know the problem, there's nothing like consensus on what the solution is. The available mechanisms are also quite tricky (unlike the Tories).
And I agree. Labour isn't ready because although they all know the problem, there's nothing like consensus on what the solution is. The available mechanisms are also quite tricky (unlike the Tories).
Brave move from Starmer if he goes through with this idea and does appoint a new Deputy PM. No guarantee that the Labour membership will elect that person Deputy Leader, which could make for a difficult relationship between the three, and between the PM, DPM and membership.
September 5, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Brave move from Starmer if he goes through with this idea and does appoint a new Deputy PM. No guarantee that the Labour membership will elect that person Deputy Leader, which could make for a difficult relationship between the three, and between the PM, DPM and membership.
I've been thinking about this a bit further, and here's my back-of-an-envelope formula for the relative amount of airtime each party should be entitled to, on a scale of 0-12, based on MPs and votes at the 2024GE, and support now:
Lab 12 / Con 8 / Ref 6 / LD 5 / Grn 2 / SNP 1
(Explanation follows)
Lab 12 / Con 8 / Ref 6 / LD 5 / Grn 2 / SNP 1
(Explanation follows)
July 31, 2025 at 9:45 AM
I've been thinking about this a bit further, and here's my back-of-an-envelope formula for the relative amount of airtime each party should be entitled to, on a scale of 0-12, based on MPs and votes at the 2024GE, and support now:
Lab 12 / Con 8 / Ref 6 / LD 5 / Grn 2 / SNP 1
(Explanation follows)
Lab 12 / Con 8 / Ref 6 / LD 5 / Grn 2 / SNP 1
(Explanation follows)
New Corbyn party with joint leaders who don't co-operate going predictably well.
'Your Party' is a terrible name, whether as a place-holder (why?!) or a permanent one. I don't know why they didn't just develop the Peace & Justice brand.
Still, it'll hit the Greens hard, for now.
'Your Party' is a terrible name, whether as a place-holder (why?!) or a permanent one. I don't know why they didn't just develop the Peace & Justice brand.
Still, it'll hit the Greens hard, for now.
July 24, 2025 at 12:23 PM
New Corbyn party with joint leaders who don't co-operate going predictably well.
'Your Party' is a terrible name, whether as a place-holder (why?!) or a permanent one. I don't know why they didn't just develop the Peace & Justice brand.
Still, it'll hit the Greens hard, for now.
'Your Party' is a terrible name, whether as a place-holder (why?!) or a permanent one. I don't know why they didn't just develop the Peace & Justice brand.
Still, it'll hit the Greens hard, for now.
Thank you for my new bed. What do you mean you need it for your lawnmower?
July 20, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Thank you for my new bed. What do you mean you need it for your lawnmower?
See para 6. The details aren't 100% clear but my reading is that the MoD applied for a general injunction and the Court upped it.
July 16, 2025 at 9:12 AM
See para 6. The details aren't 100% clear but my reading is that the MoD applied for a general injunction and the Court upped it.
Much the same is happening from Labour too, mind, as (eg) in County Durham - previously a Labour bastion for around a century.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar in my own very similar area of Wakefield next year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar in my own very similar area of Wakefield next year.
July 8, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Much the same is happening from Labour too, mind, as (eg) in County Durham - previously a Labour bastion for around a century.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar in my own very similar area of Wakefield next year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar in my own very similar area of Wakefield next year.
It was mostly a European thing, which used the same 10^6 multiples for millions, billions etc, but preferred milliard for 10^9 rather than the British preference for 'thousand million'.
Example: this 200 milliard (ie 2 x 10^11) mark banknote from Germany's 1923 hyperinflation.
Example: this 200 milliard (ie 2 x 10^11) mark banknote from Germany's 1923 hyperinflation.
July 7, 2025 at 10:52 AM
It was mostly a European thing, which used the same 10^6 multiples for millions, billions etc, but preferred milliard for 10^9 rather than the British preference for 'thousand million'.
Example: this 200 milliard (ie 2 x 10^11) mark banknote from Germany's 1923 hyperinflation.
Example: this 200 milliard (ie 2 x 10^11) mark banknote from Germany's 1923 hyperinflation.
This is not a credible position from Labour. You cannot keep increasing spending while not increasing taxes, not accelerating growth, and not expanding borrowing. Something has to give.
Both the public and the financial markets can see this. There will be consequences.
Both the public and the financial markets can see this. There will be consequences.
July 2, 2025 at 8:43 AM
This is not a credible position from Labour. You cannot keep increasing spending while not increasing taxes, not accelerating growth, and not expanding borrowing. Something has to give.
Both the public and the financial markets can see this. There will be consequences.
Both the public and the financial markets can see this. There will be consequences.
June 21, 2025 at 4:26 PM
The ward itself (pale peach in the map below) is quite built up in that it doesn't have large rural part but is mostly an out-of-town estate, heavily dependent for work on the industrial park next to it. Scarborough offers some opportunities but it's a very long way to any major city.
June 20, 2025 at 9:53 AM
The ward itself (pale peach in the map below) is quite built up in that it doesn't have large rural part but is mostly an out-of-town estate, heavily dependent for work on the industrial park next to it. Scarborough offers some opportunities but it's a very long way to any major city.
The Blair / Labour ratings in 1997 were already high pre-GE but soared after his election win - govt net rating +30, Blair +60! - and remained high in absolute terms for a long time, so it wasn't just down to Tory unpopularity (cf 2024).
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/politi...
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/politi...
June 20, 2025 at 7:22 AM
The Blair / Labour ratings in 1997 were already high pre-GE but soared after his election win - govt net rating +30, Blair +60! - and remained high in absolute terms for a long time, so it wasn't just down to Tory unpopularity (cf 2024).
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/politi...
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/politi...
Forgot to add the screenshot -
June 19, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Forgot to add the screenshot -