David Gerth
@davidgerth5.bsky.social
Reposted by David Gerth
I heard you said “the MLB”
November 29, 2025 at 6:17 PM
I heard you said “the MLB”
Reposted by David Gerth
I learned statistics in university.
I learned how to be a statistician on twitter.
I was offered many jobs because of twitter.
I retain some connections I've made over twitter.
Twitter, or what it was circa 2019, was instrumental to the success I've had if I have had any to begin with.
I learned how to be a statistician on twitter.
I was offered many jobs because of twitter.
I retain some connections I've made over twitter.
Twitter, or what it was circa 2019, was instrumental to the success I've had if I have had any to begin with.
Has anything great happened in your life because of social media?
October 8, 2025 at 1:27 PM
I learned statistics in university.
I learned how to be a statistician on twitter.
I was offered many jobs because of twitter.
I retain some connections I've made over twitter.
Twitter, or what it was circa 2019, was instrumental to the success I've had if I have had any to begin with.
I learned how to be a statistician on twitter.
I was offered many jobs because of twitter.
I retain some connections I've made over twitter.
Twitter, or what it was circa 2019, was instrumental to the success I've had if I have had any to begin with.
Reposted by David Gerth
Very excited to welcome @bgawlowski.bsky.social back to the site as our new prospect writer!
November 10, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Very excited to welcome @bgawlowski.bsky.social back to the site as our new prospect writer!
Reposted by David Gerth
Bat speed aging curve, but this time I account for the fact that we are less likely to observe very young/old players. The corrected curve declines less rapidly early and more rapidly later compared to the regular curve, which seems like the correct inference:
November 1, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Bat speed aging curve, but this time I account for the fact that we are less likely to observe very young/old players. The corrected curve declines less rapidly early and more rapidly later compared to the regular curve, which seems like the correct inference:
Reposted by David Gerth
didn't think we could hit another low with ex players on panels but think we got there with will compton/taylor lewan
October 2, 2025 at 3:48 PM
didn't think we could hit another low with ex players on panels but think we got there with will compton/taylor lewan
New article today about work I’ve done on classifying swing types and how hitters vary their swing based on location and count. Personally, I’ve found it hard to group swings together in my head based on the new data, so this attempts to do that.
September 9, 2025 at 1:25 PM
New article today about work I’ve done on classifying swing types and how hitters vary their swing based on location and count. Personally, I’ve found it hard to group swings together in my head based on the new data, so this attempts to do that.
This is easily the best thing YouTube has recommended to me in the past five years. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl-w...
LISTERS: A Glimpse Into Extreme Birdwatching
YouTube video by owen reiser
www.youtube.com
September 3, 2025 at 9:36 PM
This is easily the best thing YouTube has recommended to me in the past five years. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl-w...
Reposted by David Gerth
I think that was a home run, and I don't think that fan reached, but do I think folks are generally gettin' just a little too comfortable at the wall this year!
September 2, 2025 at 12:09 AM
I think that was a home run, and I don't think that fan reached, but do I think folks are generally gettin' just a little too comfortable at the wall this year!
Reposted by David Gerth
An acceleration of an existing trend this year: First-time head coaches hiring former HCs as coordinators.
I traveled around the NFL this summer to understand what that type of partnership really looks like, from honest reflection and tough lessons to truly ruthless competition:
I traveled around the NFL this summer to understand what that type of partnership really looks like, from honest reflection and tough lessons to truly ruthless competition:
August 31, 2025 at 3:10 PM
An acceleration of an existing trend this year: First-time head coaches hiring former HCs as coordinators.
I traveled around the NFL this summer to understand what that type of partnership really looks like, from honest reflection and tough lessons to truly ruthless competition:
I traveled around the NFL this summer to understand what that type of partnership really looks like, from honest reflection and tough lessons to truly ruthless competition:
Had some time and decided to join the CFB Data Pick'em this year. Here is the writeup of my model: dgerth5.github.io/cfb-model-20...
2025 College Football Model Submission | David Gerth
dgerth5.github.io
August 19, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Had some time and decided to join the CFB Data Pick'em this year. Here is the writeup of my model: dgerth5.github.io/cfb-model-20...
Just pushed my first submission. This was a ton of fun to work on
🏈 Week 0 kicks off in 1 week (Aug 23).
Think your model can hang? Join the CFBD Model Pick’em Contest:
✅ Free to enter
✅ Weekly picks & leaderboard
✅ Bragging rights (and humiliation for the rest)
Sign up now 👉 buff.ly/VWyJz1I
#CFB #SportsAnalytics #CFBD
Think your model can hang? Join the CFBD Model Pick’em Contest:
✅ Free to enter
✅ Weekly picks & leaderboard
✅ Bragging rights (and humiliation for the rest)
Sign up now 👉 buff.ly/VWyJz1I
#CFB #SportsAnalytics #CFBD
CFBD Model Pick'em
buff.ly
August 16, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Just pushed my first submission. This was a ton of fun to work on
Reposted by David Gerth
During grad school, I sent actual letters through the actual mail to five GMs, asking how a 25-year-old with an MFA in poetry and no other credentials could get involved in baseball. Only one responded, and the answer was some (polite) version of, "I regret to inform you that your dream is doomed."
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today! blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-tu...
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today!
Where does the time go?
blogs.fangraphs.com
August 15, 2025 at 9:55 PM
During grad school, I sent actual letters through the actual mail to five GMs, asking how a 25-year-old with an MFA in poetry and no other credentials could get involved in baseball. Only one responded, and the answer was some (polite) version of, "I regret to inform you that your dream is doomed."
Reposted by David Gerth
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today! blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-tu...
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today!
Where does the time go?
blogs.fangraphs.com
August 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today! blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-tu...
Reposted by David Gerth
Found this @jasonkoebler.bsky.social story about why AI isn’t a viable business model for journalism to be extremely well done and oddly hopeful
www.404media.co/the-medias-p...
www.404media.co/the-medias-p...
July 15, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Found this @jasonkoebler.bsky.social story about why AI isn’t a viable business model for journalism to be extremely well done and oddly hopeful
www.404media.co/the-medias-p...
www.404media.co/the-medias-p...
Reposted by David Gerth
wow, all these Dems looking for the left's Rogan, as if a thrice-weekly, very long sports podcast that loves stats and science BUT ALSO baseball players kissing THOUGH ONLY IF THEY WANT TO isn't right there WOW
May 20, 2025 at 6:24 PM
wow, all these Dems looking for the left's Rogan, as if a thrice-weekly, very long sports podcast that loves stats and science BUT ALSO baseball players kissing THOUGH ONLY IF THEY WANT TO isn't right there WOW
underrated worst part of the lottery is Morey getting bailed out. It's like seeing SBF getting pardoned
May 12, 2025 at 11:44 PM
underrated worst part of the lottery is Morey getting bailed out. It's like seeing SBF getting pardoned
Reposted by David Gerth
Our recent piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social spotlights the Carolina Mudcats, who may be MiLB's most exciting team! We take you on a gameday experience with analytical evaluations and the good old' eye test. Read it here: downonthefarm.substack.com/p/take-me-ou...
Take Me Out to the Mudcats
An Experience with A-Ball’s Most Exciting Squad
downonthefarm.substack.com
May 8, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Our recent piece with @downonthefarm.bsky.social spotlights the Carolina Mudcats, who may be MiLB's most exciting team! We take you on a gameday experience with analytical evaluations and the good old' eye test. Read it here: downonthefarm.substack.com/p/take-me-ou...
Reposted by David Gerth
I keep trying to hammer the point that LLMs do a much better job replacing the work of MBAs and coders than liberal arts majors.
I am very open to using technology to make my work better and I get a lot of support with my coding from LLMs
but I have found they suck ass at writing, they have the voice of 20 mediocre thinkers smushed into a thin slurry of overused transition phrases and so I write my own words 100 percent
but I have found they suck ass at writing, they have the voice of 20 mediocre thinkers smushed into a thin slurry of overused transition phrases and so I write my own words 100 percent
Maybe it will help a _little_ if I and others like me start saying publicly for the record that we just don’t use ChatGPT.
Writing can be really hard — organizing a piece of writing can be especially hard — but I don’t use ChatGPT.
If you read my stuff you’re reading something an LLM can’t do.
Writing can be really hard — organizing a piece of writing can be especially hard — but I don’t use ChatGPT.
If you read my stuff you’re reading something an LLM can’t do.
May 7, 2025 at 1:59 PM
I keep trying to hammer the point that LLMs do a much better job replacing the work of MBAs and coders than liberal arts majors.
Read this nice article on Shape Constrained Additive Models yesterday. Tried it out today on some generated data, comparing a standard GAM to a SCAM with upward trend (correct) and SCAM with downward trend (incorrect). GAM and correct SCAM are similar, with the SCAM being less wiggly.
May 7, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Read this nice article on Shape Constrained Additive Models yesterday. Tried it out today on some generated data, comparing a standard GAM to a SCAM with upward trend (correct) and SCAM with downward trend (incorrect). GAM and correct SCAM are similar, with the SCAM being less wiggly.
Reposted by David Gerth
Two of the offices without senior officials are Houston and Tampa, which, whew, that’s not good.
A slow moving catastrophe that won’t be widely understood until it’s too late.
A slow moving catastrophe that won’t be widely understood until it’s too late.
NEW: US weather forecasting is in worse shape than previously known, with 30 NWS forecast offices missing meteorologists-in-charge and about a dozen offices at risk of no longer serving their communities 24/7. www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/w...
US weather forecasting is more crippled than previously thought as hurricane season nears | CNN
Several current and former agency meteorologists and staff told CNN they are concerned warnings won’t be issued in time as hurricane season nears.
www.cnn.com
May 2, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Two of the offices without senior officials are Houston and Tampa, which, whew, that’s not good.
A slow moving catastrophe that won’t be widely understood until it’s too late.
A slow moving catastrophe that won’t be widely understood until it’s too late.
Reposted by David Gerth
🚨 The Packers took a first round receiver 🚨
Absolutely love them getting Matthew Golden. Playoff loss showed they needed someone who could take the top of the defense and beat man coverage. Sharp route runner with terrific hands who wins at all three levels.
My favorite pick of the draft so far.
Absolutely love them getting Matthew Golden. Playoff loss showed they needed someone who could take the top of the defense and beat man coverage. Sharp route runner with terrific hands who wins at all three levels.
My favorite pick of the draft so far.
April 25, 2025 at 2:46 AM
🚨 The Packers took a first round receiver 🚨
Absolutely love them getting Matthew Golden. Playoff loss showed they needed someone who could take the top of the defense and beat man coverage. Sharp route runner with terrific hands who wins at all three levels.
My favorite pick of the draft so far.
Absolutely love them getting Matthew Golden. Playoff loss showed they needed someone who could take the top of the defense and beat man coverage. Sharp route runner with terrific hands who wins at all three levels.
My favorite pick of the draft so far.
Reposted by David Gerth
As a Mets rookie makes his long-shot MLB debut, the scout who signed him is beating his own odds. With @TimBritton. www.nytimes.com/athletic/628...
As a Mets rookie makes his long-shot MLB debut, the scout who signed him is beating his own odds
Justin Hagenman was a 23rd round pick in 2018. The Dodgers scout who signed him, Jonah Rosenthal, is recovering from a stroke in December.
www.nytimes.com
April 17, 2025 at 1:14 AM
As a Mets rookie makes his long-shot MLB debut, the scout who signed him is beating his own odds. With @TimBritton. www.nytimes.com/athletic/628...
@lukeepplin.bsky.social, just finished up "Our Team." Excellent work, I found all four angles to be fascinating and it was well written
April 16, 2025 at 8:13 PM
@lukeepplin.bsky.social, just finished up "Our Team." Excellent work, I found all four angles to be fascinating and it was well written
Reposted by David Gerth
Submitted an abstract for Saber Seminar! If you have an idea and could present it in Chicago this summer, here's the form for submission: forms.gle/687GBSbyw5tB... Saber Seminar is an excellent place to have your work seen by front offices.
Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form
Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2025. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...
forms.gle
April 10, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Submitted an abstract for Saber Seminar! If you have an idea and could present it in Chicago this summer, here's the form for submission: forms.gle/687GBSbyw5tB... Saber Seminar is an excellent place to have your work seen by front offices.