Some of the reasons for lower participation among young people are more concerning than others. Increase in schooling is probably good. Later family formation seems to contribute to *higher* participation. But disability and other reasons are cited more than in the past.

Recent college grads retain a large advantage in overall employment rate. Falling labor force participation rates among young people without a college degree is probably a more concerning trend. Lower labor force participation can lower unemployment rates, but that might be bad.

This is the data that has everyone talking. While there’s clearly a narrowing of the unemployment rate gap between recent college grads and other young people, it all occurred pre-COVID, before ChatGPT was released.

At a time when skepticism about college is popular, and many suggest trades as an alternative, this should lead some to reassess whether that advice is helpful or harmful to young people looking for guidance.

Full post here:

blog.waldrn.com/p/the-truth-...

Healthcare-related middle skills jobs have performed better. Cops and firefighters also continue to get paid well.

Jobs that require a college degree still tend to pay above the median wage and many, especially healthcare-related, have increased their standing relative to the median.

Recent jobs data suggests this streak might be coming to an end.

My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...

@johnpfaff.bsky.social

So we’re cutting a survey that’s getting its first update since 2002 and has already completed data collection in February?

This particular chart is inspired by Figure 1 in "Tertiarization Like China" by Chen et. al.

www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

Read more about this phenomenon as it relates to President Trump's beliefs about trade here: blog.waldrn.com/p/what-happe...

From here:

www.nber.org/system/files...

Base on 2019 data, where both modes were tested, the mode change could account for around 1.5 points of the 15.2 point drop in complete agreement on the equal pay question, and 5.6 points of the 17.8 point drop on the equal opportunity question.

One clue that is evident in the survey is that trend away from feminist views appears to be strongest among boys who say that religion is important in their lives.

The trend also appears to be independent of fathers being present, education of mothers and communication with parents.

Support for gender equality dropped regardless of whether boys regularly hung out with friends or went on dates.

The data defies most simple explanations. The drop appears to be greater among boys who spent the least amount of time using social networks, watching videos or playing video games.