Wild Roundhead spotted out in Lewes on #TheFifth

Mossn't grumble.

ha yes, I thought this was quite the quote! (not sure if it's from the book though)

He was even more blunt in this interview, categorising Gaza & Ukraine as distractions: exame.com/en/brazil-is...

(also odd on not being worried about AI energy usage, as renewables will inevitable be abundant...)

The rapidity of oil/gas decline without investment in this report struck me too - from eyeballing, not super far off rate needed for well-below 2C (or even 1.5 if had started earlier): bsky.app/profile/drsi...

Or indeed when 1 of Shell's 2021 global net-zero scenarios involved planting a *Brazil-sized* forest to make up for continuing fossil fuels to 2100: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-she....

People on the ground may be sounder on its limits, but it has been used by suits to justify continued emissions!

It's also been commonly taken up in that way by politicians, e.g. UK parties outbidding each other on tree-planting targets back in 2019 election to make up a big chunk of net-zero plans, with generally underwhelming results: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...

It's also fine to climb up motorway gantries, if it's for a flag bsky.app/profile/davi...

Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good... youtu.be/ney0E6sNceU?...

Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ney0...

Recent news for context: www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Overall the general picture is the same though: the AMOC weakens with warming, the larger that warming the more likely it is to collapse in the long run, that collapse would radically change life in Europe & the tropics, and one part of it could go much sooner. But also: deep uncertainty remains!

Complementarily, one can think of this (and other categorisation problems) in terms of an n-dimensional phase space on which the main PCA principal component maps roughly on to an existing axis/spectrum construct (like sex, left/right-wing, etc.), but never perfectly, or capturing all variation.

Obviously this doesn't mean Arctic sea ice loss isn't happening (it is! and this slowdown likely means next drop is bigger) or isn't a problem (it's already causing harm!), but given how things are actually panning out the dark-boosterism that Arctic sea ice seems to attract doesn't seem very useful

How it started // How it's going

(p.s. 1st graph - from XR's first talks in 2018 - is volume rather than extent, which amplifies changes, but the two have similar trends)

For more background, check out this explainer I wrote last year on why claims of a 2023 carbon sink collapse were wide of the mark (and which I'll update soon-ish on what the unexpected lack of a land sink recovery in 2024 likely means): climatetippingpoints.info/2024/12/03/c...

Stockholm?

Hi Aaron, this was an interesting paper describing recent CH4 sink dynamics w.r.t. air pollution, quantifying how increased O3/H2O & decreased CO helped increase CH4 sink over last 2 decades, partly balancing increased CH4 emissions (mostly from tropical wetlands & anthro. sources): rdcu.be/eAm3h