Dan Neidle
@danneidle.bsky.social
Founder of Tax Policy Associates Ltd. Tax realist. @danneidle on Twitter
The personal allowance has also been frozen - but it was at a historic real-terms high in 2019.
November 14, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The personal allowance has also been frozen - but it was at a historic real-terms high in 2019.
Earnings have generally outstripped inflation. So (even in the happy 2000s) the % of people paying the higher rate was rising - this chart shows that %.
The recent trend has been more dramatic. 50% more people are paying higher rate tax than in 2019.
The recent trend has been more dramatic. 50% more people are paying higher rate tax than in 2019.
November 14, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Earnings have generally outstripped inflation. So (even in the happy 2000s) the % of people paying the higher rate was rising - this chart shows that %.
The recent trend has been more dramatic. 50% more people are paying higher rate tax than in 2019.
The recent trend has been more dramatic. 50% more people are paying higher rate tax than in 2019.
Fiscal creep has been an amazingly easy way for recent Governments to raise tax without anyone noticing.
Here's the higher rate tax band since 1990.
It rose faster than inflation from 1994 to 2009. Then began a steep decline - with many more people paying higher rate.
Here's the higher rate tax band since 1990.
It rose faster than inflation from 1994 to 2009. Then began a steep decline - with many more people paying higher rate.
November 14, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Fiscal creep has been an amazingly easy way for recent Governments to raise tax without anyone noticing.
Here's the higher rate tax band since 1990.
It rose faster than inflation from 1994 to 2009. Then began a steep decline - with many more people paying higher rate.
Here's the higher rate tax band since 1990.
It rose faster than inflation from 1994 to 2009. Then began a steep decline - with many more people paying higher rate.
You can download the "bump" data in spreadsheet form from our website (many thanks to The Times, for not just sharing the data with us, but letting us publish it)
And our tax calculator is also there. taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...
And our tax calculator is also there. taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
You can download the "bump" data in spreadsheet form from our website (many thanks to The Times, for not just sharing the data with us, but letting us publish it)
And our tax calculator is also there. taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...
And our tax calculator is also there. taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...
Second, it incentivises people to work fewer hours. We've heard anecdotally from managers unable to persuade staff to work more hours, or return to work full time - it's a particular problem for hospital managers, as junior consultants within the £100k "trap".
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Second, it incentivises people to work fewer hours. We've heard anecdotally from managers unable to persuade staff to work more hours, or return to work full time - it's a particular problem for hospital managers, as junior consultants within the £100k "trap".
There were approx 32,000 people in the £100k bump in 2022/23 and 230,000 people in the £50k bump.
Both bumps will have grown since then. Check out how they grew between 2021/22 and 2022/23:
Both bumps will have grown since then. Check out how they grew between 2021/22 and 2022/23:
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
There were approx 32,000 people in the £100k bump in 2022/23 and 230,000 people in the £50k bump.
Both bumps will have grown since then. Check out how they grew between 2021/22 and 2022/23:
Both bumps will have grown since then. Check out how they grew between 2021/22 and 2022/23:
This is the practical result of the marginal rate curve you can see on our Budget tax calculator: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...
And full write-up there.
And full write-up there.
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
This is the practical result of the marginal rate curve you can see on our Budget tax calculator: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...
And full write-up there.
And full write-up there.
NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:
Of if that's too much, here are some puppies to cheer you up.
November 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Of if that's too much, here are some puppies to cheer you up.
That's not speculation. We can see 32,000 people in the data, keeping their income from going over £100k. (Thanks to The Times for finding this)
November 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
That's not speculation. We can see 32,000 people in the data, keeping their income from going over £100k. (Thanks to The Times for finding this)
The childcare subsidies are huge. You can be £20k worse off at £100,001 than you were at £100,000
People know this. They make additional pension contributions, turn away work, refuse promotions, work 4 days a week...
People know this. They make additional pension contributions, turn away work, refuse promotions, work 4 days a week...
November 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The childcare subsidies are huge. You can be £20k worse off at £100,001 than you were at £100,000
People know this. They make additional pension contributions, turn away work, refuse promotions, work 4 days a week...
People know this. They make additional pension contributions, turn away work, refuse promotions, work 4 days a week...
And more if they're in Scotland. Up to 70% between £100k and £125k,
November 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
And more if they're in Scotland. Up to 70% between £100k and £125k,
Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k.
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
November 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k.
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
Loose lips sink growth.
November 13, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Loose lips sink growth.
Have to admit, mostly it's depressing. If you think the chart in the image above is bad, see what happens if you select Scotland:
November 12, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Have to admit, mostly it's depressing. If you think the chart in the image above is bad, see what happens if you select Scotland:
I proudly present the internet's nerdiest and prettiest tax calculator.
Other calculators just calculate your tax. This one calculates your tax now, and under various Budget proposals. And draws a pretty chart showing the marginal and effective rates for *everyone*.
Other calculators just calculate your tax. This one calculates your tax now, and under various Budget proposals. And draws a pretty chart showing the marginal and effective rates for *everyone*.
November 12, 2025 at 3:47 PM
I proudly present the internet's nerdiest and prettiest tax calculator.
Other calculators just calculate your tax. This one calculates your tax now, and under various Budget proposals. And draws a pretty chart showing the marginal and effective rates for *everyone*.
Other calculators just calculate your tax. This one calculates your tax now, and under various Budget proposals. And draws a pretty chart showing the marginal and effective rates for *everyone*.
And don't forget to take in this spectacular view of Edinburgh castle.
Oh, my mistake, that's not a castle - it's the Scottish marginal tax rates.
Oh, my mistake, that's not a castle - it's the Scottish marginal tax rates.
November 11, 2025 at 2:44 PM
And don't forget to take in this spectacular view of Edinburgh castle.
Oh, my mistake, that's not a castle - it's the Scottish marginal tax rates.
Oh, my mistake, that's not a castle - it's the Scottish marginal tax rates.
Play the super-entertaining game of finding the highest marginal tax rate, and the point at which earning more money *costs* you money.
November 11, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Play the super-entertaining game of finding the highest marginal tax rate, and the point at which earning more money *costs* you money.
Entertain yourself by seeing how much more you'll pay in various fun scenarios.
November 11, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Entertain yourself by seeing how much more you'll pay in various fun scenarios.
The internet is full of tax calculators. They're boring.
Tomorrow we're launching our Budget tax calculator. Prettier and nerdier than all the rest put together.
Tomorrow we're launching our Budget tax calculator. Prettier and nerdier than all the rest put together.
November 11, 2025 at 2:44 PM
The internet is full of tax calculators. They're boring.
Tomorrow we're launching our Budget tax calculator. Prettier and nerdier than all the rest put together.
Tomorrow we're launching our Budget tax calculator. Prettier and nerdier than all the rest put together.
This post went viral on X (but not here or on other platforms)... but I fear many missed my point.
The video is funny and compelling but makes a bad error. It ignores incentives.
The policy proposed would likely *increase* private jet emissions.
The video is funny and compelling but makes a bad error. It ignores incentives.
The policy proposed would likely *increase* private jet emissions.
November 10, 2025 at 10:58 AM
This post went viral on X (but not here or on other platforms)... but I fear many missed my point.
The video is funny and compelling but makes a bad error. It ignores incentives.
The policy proposed would likely *increase* private jet emissions.
The video is funny and compelling but makes a bad error. It ignores incentives.
The policy proposed would likely *increase* private jet emissions.
That means there are way more Band G properties in areas that were wealthy in 1991, and way fewer in areas that are wealthy now, but weren't in 1991.
The result - people in similarly valuable houses would face a total postcode lottery.
The result - people in similarly valuable houses would face a total postcode lottery.
November 9, 2025 at 3:10 PM
That means there are way more Band G properties in areas that were wealthy in 1991, and way fewer in areas that are wealthy now, but weren't in 1991.
The result - people in similarly valuable houses would face a total postcode lottery.
The result - people in similarly valuable houses would face a total postcode lottery.
We reported last week on the uncomfortable reality of doubling council tax on Band G and Band H homes - 80% of the revenues would come from Band G.
New analysis from Chaminda Jayanetti at PoliticsHome shows another real source of unfairness...
New analysis from Chaminda Jayanetti at PoliticsHome shows another real source of unfairness...
November 9, 2025 at 3:10 PM
We reported last week on the uncomfortable reality of doubling council tax on Band G and Band H homes - 80% of the revenues would come from Band G.
New analysis from Chaminda Jayanetti at PoliticsHome shows another real source of unfairness...
New analysis from Chaminda Jayanetti at PoliticsHome shows another real source of unfairness...
Lots of people in the EU want to change this, but that requires unanimity, and it keeps getting blocked.
November 8, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Lots of people in the EU want to change this, but that requires unanimity, and it keeps getting blocked.
The problem is EU law
EU law exempts aircraft fuel from duties unless it's "private pleasure flying"
And in practice most private jet flights are either for business, or (loophole!) rich person pays a commercial rate to fly on a jet owned by their own company.
No duty
EU law exempts aircraft fuel from duties unless it's "private pleasure flying"
And in practice most private jet flights are either for business, or (loophole!) rich person pays a commercial rate to fly on a jet owned by their own company.
No duty
November 8, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The problem is EU law
EU law exempts aircraft fuel from duties unless it's "private pleasure flying"
And in practice most private jet flights are either for business, or (loophole!) rich person pays a commercial rate to fly on a jet owned by their own company.
No duty
EU law exempts aircraft fuel from duties unless it's "private pleasure flying"
And in practice most private jet flights are either for business, or (loophole!) rich person pays a commercial rate to fly on a jet owned by their own company.
No duty