CropProphet
@cropprophet.bsky.social
https://www.cropprophet.com
CropProphet quantifies the impact of weather on grain to help grain traders improve their trading profitability.
CropProphet quantifies the impact of weather on grain to help grain traders improve their trading profitability.
Over the past 30 days, Brazil #soybean regions have been substantially dry, with prod-wghtd precip only 82% of nrml. The 14-day AIFS, ECMWF, & GEFS fcst below nrml #Brazil soybean prod wghtd precip.
AIFS: 73% of nrml
ECMWF: 82% of nrml
GEFS: 63% of nrml
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
AIFS: 73% of nrml
ECMWF: 82% of nrml
GEFS: 63% of nrml
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
October 23, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Over the past 30 days, Brazil #soybean regions have been substantially dry, with prod-wghtd precip only 82% of nrml. The 14-day AIFS, ECMWF, & GEFS fcst below nrml #Brazil soybean prod wghtd precip.
AIFS: 73% of nrml
ECMWF: 82% of nrml
GEFS: 63% of nrml
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
AIFS: 73% of nrml
ECMWF: 82% of nrml
GEFS: 63% of nrml
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather
Southern Illinois has been extremely dry over the prior 30+ days.
The IL corn prod wghtd precip over the last 30 days is 25% of nrml...
County-level changes in the #corn yield expected value show sharp declines across southern Illinois.
#oatt #Agriculture #AgWeather #AgWx
The IL corn prod wghtd precip over the last 30 days is 25% of nrml...
County-level changes in the #corn yield expected value show sharp declines across southern Illinois.
#oatt #Agriculture #AgWeather #AgWx
September 18, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Southern Illinois has been extremely dry over the prior 30+ days.
The IL corn prod wghtd precip over the last 30 days is 25% of nrml...
County-level changes in the #corn yield expected value show sharp declines across southern Illinois.
#oatt #Agriculture #AgWeather #AgWx
The IL corn prod wghtd precip over the last 30 days is 25% of nrml...
County-level changes in the #corn yield expected value show sharp declines across southern Illinois.
#oatt #Agriculture #AgWeather #AgWx
The eastern #Corn Belt has been extremely dry.
OH ranks driest on record (1981–2025) for Aug+Sep-to-date corn prod wghtd precip. IN, IL, & MO nearly as bad.
We’ll cover what this means for grain markets in tomorrow’s webinar.
Register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#AgWx #oatt #AgWeather #Grains
OH ranks driest on record (1981–2025) for Aug+Sep-to-date corn prod wghtd precip. IN, IL, & MO nearly as bad.
We’ll cover what this means for grain markets in tomorrow’s webinar.
Register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#AgWx #oatt #AgWeather #Grains
September 9, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The eastern #Corn Belt has been extremely dry.
OH ranks driest on record (1981–2025) for Aug+Sep-to-date corn prod wghtd precip. IN, IL, & MO nearly as bad.
We’ll cover what this means for grain markets in tomorrow’s webinar.
Register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#AgWx #oatt #AgWeather #Grains
OH ranks driest on record (1981–2025) for Aug+Sep-to-date corn prod wghtd precip. IN, IL, & MO nearly as bad.
We’ll cover what this means for grain markets in tomorrow’s webinar.
Register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#AgWx #oatt #AgWeather #Grains
The September Grain Market Wx Webinar is in 2 days.
Register: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
What will we discuss:
1) Impact of recent dryness on yield,
2) Effects of disease pressure on corn production,
3) Average first freeze dates by county and the upcoming freeze outlook.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
Register: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
What will we discuss:
1) Impact of recent dryness on yield,
2) Effects of disease pressure on corn production,
3) Average first freeze dates by county and the upcoming freeze outlook.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
September 8, 2025 at 12:52 PM
The September Grain Market Wx Webinar is in 2 days.
Register: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
What will we discuss:
1) Impact of recent dryness on yield,
2) Effects of disease pressure on corn production,
3) Average first freeze dates by county and the upcoming freeze outlook.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
Register: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
What will we discuss:
1) Impact of recent dryness on yield,
2) Effects of disease pressure on corn production,
3) Average first freeze dates by county and the upcoming freeze outlook.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
Our last Grain Market Weather Webinar for this US growing season will take place on September 10th at 10 AM ET.
👉 Save your spot and register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Grains #Yield #WeatherRisk #Agriculture #GrainMarket #GrainTrader #Farmer
👉 Save your spot and register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Grains #Yield #WeatherRisk #Agriculture #GrainMarket #GrainTrader #Farmer
September 2, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Our last Grain Market Weather Webinar for this US growing season will take place on September 10th at 10 AM ET.
👉 Save your spot and register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Grains #Yield #WeatherRisk #Agriculture #GrainMarket #GrainTrader #Farmer
👉 Save your spot and register here: bit.ly/CPSeptemberW...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Grains #Yield #WeatherRisk #Agriculture #GrainMarket #GrainTrader #Farmer
Iowa: Slightly different story.
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
August 21, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Iowa: Slightly different story.
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Weather→yield links after 50% silking are weaker; heat & precip signal are not as drastic vs IL/IN.
Analyze the weather impact on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#IAwx #agwx #corn #oatt #Grains #AgWeather #Yield #Agriculture
Post 50% silking weather risk isn’t the same everywhere. State graphics show IL & IN yields are highly heat-sensitive (30–60 days after 50% silking), while IA is less responsive.
For #grain markets: heat > precip. Thread👇
#oatt #AgWx #corn #CornBelt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
For #grain markets: heat > precip. Thread👇
#oatt #AgWx #corn #CornBelt #AgWeather #Grains #Yield
August 21, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Model spread (Days 1–14, prod-wghtd):
• ECMWF: Corn −17%, Soybeans −20%
• GEFS: Corn −10%, Soybeans −13%
• AIFS: Corn −4%, Soybeans −4%
Same direction (drier), different magnitude—fuel for volatility in #Corn & #Soybeans.
#graintrading #oatt #Grains #AgWx #AgWeather
• ECMWF: Corn −17%, Soybeans −20%
• GEFS: Corn −10%, Soybeans −13%
• AIFS: Corn −4%, Soybeans −4%
Same direction (drier), different magnitude—fuel for volatility in #Corn & #Soybeans.
#graintrading #oatt #Grains #AgWx #AgWeather
August 19, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Model spread (Days 1–14, prod-wghtd):
• ECMWF: Corn −17%, Soybeans −20%
• GEFS: Corn −10%, Soybeans −13%
• AIFS: Corn −4%, Soybeans −4%
Same direction (drier), different magnitude—fuel for volatility in #Corn & #Soybeans.
#graintrading #oatt #Grains #AgWx #AgWeather
• ECMWF: Corn −17%, Soybeans −20%
• GEFS: Corn −10%, Soybeans −13%
• AIFS: Corn −4%, Soybeans −4%
Same direction (drier), different magnitude—fuel for volatility in #Corn & #Soybeans.
#graintrading #oatt #Grains #AgWx #AgWeather
USDA set US corn yield at 188.8 bu/ac. Markets stirred; CropProphet clients weren’t. Recent Septembers trended drier across the Midwest, and 15-day guidance just flipped substantially drier—potentially raising late-season yield risk.
#Corn #AgWx #Grains
bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#Corn #AgWx #Grains
bit.ly/TryCropProphet
August 19, 2025 at 3:02 PM
USDA set US corn yield at 188.8 bu/ac. Markets stirred; CropProphet clients weren’t. Recent Septembers trended drier across the Midwest, and 15-day guidance just flipped substantially drier—potentially raising late-season yield risk.
#Corn #AgWx #Grains
bit.ly/TryCropProphet
#Corn #AgWx #Grains
bit.ly/TryCropProphet
With USDA corn estimates out, we examined: Do above-normal planted #corn acres lead to higher yields?
Answer: No.
Using CropProphet Modeler data, the graphic shows no clear relationship between acreage deviation and trend yield deviation.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture
Answer: No.
Using CropProphet Modeler data, the graphic shows no clear relationship between acreage deviation and trend yield deviation.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture
August 18, 2025 at 4:54 PM
With USDA corn estimates out, we examined: Do above-normal planted #corn acres lead to higher yields?
Answer: No.
Using CropProphet Modeler data, the graphic shows no clear relationship between acreage deviation and trend yield deviation.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture
Answer: No.
Using CropProphet Modeler data, the graphic shows no clear relationship between acreage deviation and trend yield deviation.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture
IL corn prod wghtd precip is above nrml over the past 30 days, driven by ~3 precip events in mid to late July.
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
August 15, 2025 at 12:45 PM
IL corn prod wghtd precip is above nrml over the past 30 days, driven by ~3 precip events in mid to late July.
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn
How will August weather shape grain market moves? Find out in today’s Grain Market Weather Webinar — registration closes 10 AM ET.
If weather could impact your grain markets, don’t miss this insight.
👉🔗 bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture #Grains #Corn
If weather could impact your grain markets, don’t miss this insight.
👉🔗 bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture #Grains #Corn
August 13, 2025 at 11:25 AM
How will August weather shape grain market moves? Find out in today’s Grain Market Weather Webinar — registration closes 10 AM ET.
If weather could impact your grain markets, don’t miss this insight.
👉🔗 bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture #Grains #Corn
If weather could impact your grain markets, don’t miss this insight.
👉🔗 bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Agriculture #Grains #Corn
1 day to the August Grain Market Weather Webinar!
What will we cover?
• Recent high wind events
• Above-nrml July precip in S MN & N IA—yield impact?
• Other CropProphet analyses
👉 Register for the webinar hosted by CEO Dr. Jan Dutton: bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx
What will we cover?
• Recent high wind events
• Above-nrml July precip in S MN & N IA—yield impact?
• Other CropProphet analyses
👉 Register for the webinar hosted by CEO Dr. Jan Dutton: bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx
August 12, 2025 at 3:24 PM
1 day to the August Grain Market Weather Webinar!
What will we cover?
• Recent high wind events
• Above-nrml July precip in S MN & N IA—yield impact?
• Other CropProphet analyses
👉 Register for the webinar hosted by CEO Dr. Jan Dutton: bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx
What will we cover?
• Recent high wind events
• Above-nrml July precip in S MN & N IA—yield impact?
• Other CropProphet analyses
👉 Register for the webinar hosted by CEO Dr. Jan Dutton: bit.ly/CPAugustWebi...
#oatt #AgWx
Over the next 2 weeks, the #corn belt is going to be HOT.
The 14-day GEFS & ECMWF both fcst the corn prod wghtd avg tmp to be >4°F above nrml.
And... during week 3 and 4, the GEFS shows an increased likelihood of above nrml temps within the corn belt.
#oatt #AgWx #Agriculture #AgWeather #Grains
The 14-day GEFS & ECMWF both fcst the corn prod wghtd avg tmp to be >4°F above nrml.
And... during week 3 and 4, the GEFS shows an increased likelihood of above nrml temps within the corn belt.
#oatt #AgWx #Agriculture #AgWeather #Grains
August 5, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Over the next 2 weeks, the #corn belt is going to be HOT.
The 14-day GEFS & ECMWF both fcst the corn prod wghtd avg tmp to be >4°F above nrml.
And... during week 3 and 4, the GEFS shows an increased likelihood of above nrml temps within the corn belt.
#oatt #AgWx #Agriculture #AgWeather #Grains
The 14-day GEFS & ECMWF both fcst the corn prod wghtd avg tmp to be >4°F above nrml.
And... during week 3 and 4, the GEFS shows an increased likelihood of above nrml temps within the corn belt.
#oatt #AgWx #Agriculture #AgWeather #Grains
It’s been the opposite of a drought across the #Corn Belt—especially over the past 15 days.
MN, IA, and IL all ranked #1 all-time (1981–2025) for corn production weighted precip from Jul 17–31.
Too much rain? Could yields suffer?
#AgWx #Yield #oatt #AgWeather #GrainMarket #Grains #GrainTrader
MN, IA, and IL all ranked #1 all-time (1981–2025) for corn production weighted precip from Jul 17–31.
Too much rain? Could yields suffer?
#AgWx #Yield #oatt #AgWeather #GrainMarket #Grains #GrainTrader
August 1, 2025 at 2:20 PM
It’s been the opposite of a drought across the #Corn Belt—especially over the past 15 days.
MN, IA, and IL all ranked #1 all-time (1981–2025) for corn production weighted precip from Jul 17–31.
Too much rain? Could yields suffer?
#AgWx #Yield #oatt #AgWeather #GrainMarket #Grains #GrainTrader
MN, IA, and IL all ranked #1 all-time (1981–2025) for corn production weighted precip from Jul 17–31.
Too much rain? Could yields suffer?
#AgWx #Yield #oatt #AgWeather #GrainMarket #Grains #GrainTrader
The ECMWF, GEFS, and AIFS-ENS all fcst the Canada #corn and #canola production weighted precip to be substantially below normal over the next 14 days.
Below normal precipitation in corn and canola growing regions in Canada needs to be monitored.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #Canada #AgWeather
Below normal precipitation in corn and canola growing regions in Canada needs to be monitored.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #Canada #AgWeather
July 31, 2025 at 1:11 PM
The ECMWF, GEFS, and AIFS-ENS all fcst the Canada #corn and #canola production weighted precip to be substantially below normal over the next 14 days.
Below normal precipitation in corn and canola growing regions in Canada needs to be monitored.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #Canada #AgWeather
Below normal precipitation in corn and canola growing regions in Canada needs to be monitored.
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #Canada #AgWeather
Over the past 60 days, it has been substantially dry in portions of Canada.
Over the last 60 days, the CA #corn prod wghtd precip has been 69% of nrml while the CA #canola prod wghtd precip has been 70% of nrml.
What does the 14-day precip fcst show? See below.⬇️
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #CA
Over the last 60 days, the CA #corn prod wghtd precip has been 69% of nrml while the CA #canola prod wghtd precip has been 70% of nrml.
What does the 14-day precip fcst show? See below.⬇️
#oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Grains #CA
July 31, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Here is a map showing SPC wind reports from July 27–28 overlaid on % of U.S. corn production by county.
While models forecasted a high wind event in southern MN, the most impactful winds actually occurred across northern and eastern Iowa.
#oatt #AgWx #Corn #AgWeather #Wind #SPC
While models forecasted a high wind event in southern MN, the most impactful winds actually occurred across northern and eastern Iowa.
#oatt #AgWx #Corn #AgWeather #Wind #SPC
July 29, 2025 at 1:48 PM
What was the corn yield impact of the 2020 Iowa derecho?
In Iowa, wind speeds of 70–120 mph led to yield losses of 42–49 bu/ac. Illinois also saw notable losses.
We analyzed the event in depth here👉 cropprophet.com/2020-iowa-de...
#corn #AgWx #AgWeather #oatt #Agriculture #Yield
In Iowa, wind speeds of 70–120 mph led to yield losses of 42–49 bu/ac. Illinois also saw notable losses.
We analyzed the event in depth here👉 cropprophet.com/2020-iowa-de...
#corn #AgWx #AgWeather #oatt #Agriculture #Yield
July 28, 2025 at 12:22 PM
What was the corn yield impact of the 2020 Iowa derecho?
In Iowa, wind speeds of 70–120 mph led to yield losses of 42–49 bu/ac. Illinois also saw notable losses.
We analyzed the event in depth here👉 cropprophet.com/2020-iowa-de...
#corn #AgWx #AgWeather #oatt #Agriculture #Yield
In Iowa, wind speeds of 70–120 mph led to yield losses of 42–49 bu/ac. Illinois also saw notable losses.
We analyzed the event in depth here👉 cropprophet.com/2020-iowa-de...
#corn #AgWx #AgWeather #oatt #Agriculture #Yield