Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Dept of Political Science at Michigan State University. Mostly tweeting about Michigan polling
Good catch. But it is still much less likely to happen to a voter in Canada than be struck by lightning. Blais has a single vote deciding a riding as 1/25000. The chances of getting struck by lightning in a 80 year lifetime are 1/15000.
May 13, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Good catch. But it is still much less likely to happen to a voter in Canada than be struck by lightning. Blais has a single vote deciding a riding as 1/25000. The chances of getting struck by lightning in a 80 year lifetime are 1/15000.
I know, I have been looking!
April 14, 2025 at 1:36 AM
I know, I have been looking!
FWIW, I think the comparativists have been right to go with different specifications for this type of analysis. There are some funky issues with using those lags. For example: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
Party Nationalization and Institutions | The Journal of Politics: Vol 71, No 4
Party nationalization has two distinct components: the first is based on the degree of homogeneity in the geographic distribution of a party's vote, and the other is defined by the degree to which nat...
www.journals.uchicago.edu
November 11, 2024 at 12:06 PM
FWIW, I think the comparativists have been right to go with different specifications for this type of analysis. There are some funky issues with using those lags. For example: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
My grad class is reading Steadfast Democrats for next week. I am seeing it as valuable to view in contrast of Latino vote trends
November 8, 2024 at 11:29 PM
My grad class is reading Steadfast Democrats for next week. I am seeing it as valuable to view in contrast of Latino vote trends
Yes, the online model work does well showing recall of considerations is a bad way of understanding. Doesn't mean online is right though!
November 8, 2024 at 9:09 PM
Yes, the online model work does well showing recall of considerations is a bad way of understanding. Doesn't mean online is right though!
Agreed, looking back at 2020 primary makes more sense than looking at the lack of a 2024 primary.
November 6, 2024 at 3:16 PM
Agreed, looking back at 2020 primary makes more sense than looking at the lack of a 2024 primary.
You can stop @egojunk.bsky.social from believing!
November 2, 2024 at 11:22 PM
You can stop @egojunk.bsky.social from believing!
Those Michiana counties are very swingy.
November 2, 2024 at 8:46 PM
Those Michiana counties are very swingy.