Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Dept of Political Science at Michigan State University. Mostly tweeting about Michigan polling
Pinned
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 4
Rx Kids | A Prescription for Health, Hope, and Opportunity
Rx Kids is the first-ever community-wide cash prescription program for pregnant moms and babies. Rx Kids provides all pregnant moms in the City of Flint with no-strings-attached cash of $1,500 during ...
rxkids.org
Proud to work with RxKids on this. Community-based cash transfers to childbearing mothers has huge health benefits AND looks to be a winner for keeping them politically engaged. More research to come: rxkids.org/new-research...
Proud to work with RxKids on this. Community-based cash transfers to childbearing mothers has huge health benefits AND looks to be a winner for keeping them politically engaged. More research to come: rxkids.org/new-research...
Rx Kids | A Prescription for Health, Hope, and Opportunity
Rx Kids is the first-ever community-wide cash prescription program for pregnant moms and babies. Rx Kids provides all pregnant moms in the City of Flint with no-strings-attached cash of $1,500 during ...
rxkids.org
November 4, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Proud to work with RxKids on this. Community-based cash transfers to childbearing mothers has huge health benefits AND looks to be a winner for keeping them politically engaged. More research to come: rxkids.org/new-research...
Ah i was just speaking of the autocratic wonders of the MI county drain commissioner. This cost us over $30 million and was used to fund art through his wife's organization. www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/l...
June 12, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Ah i was just speaking of the autocratic wonders of the MI county drain commissioner. This cost us over $30 million and was used to fund art through his wife's organization. www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/l...
"The paranoid mythology the U.S. military helped spread now has a hold over a growing number of its own senior officials who count themselves as believers." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology
U.S. military fabricated evidence of alien technology and allowed rumors to fester to cover up real secret-weapons programs
www.wsj.com
June 7, 2025 at 11:38 AM
"The paranoid mythology the U.S. military helped spread now has a hold over a growing number of its own senior officials who count themselves as believers." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Lol Wexford County got mistakenly listed as a sanctuary county by some random group a while ago and the Trump administration put them on their list and they are upset www.misenategop.com/this-must-be....
‘This must be resolved’: Hoitenga affirms Wexford County is not a sanctuary community despite DHS report
LANSING, Mich. — State Sen. Michele Hoitenga on Friday called for immediate action to ensure Wexford County is in compliance with federal immigration laws after it was recently identified by the U.S.
www.misenategop.com
May 31, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Lol Wexford County got mistakenly listed as a sanctuary county by some random group a while ago and the Trump administration put them on their list and they are upset www.misenategop.com/this-must-be....
Loving the All Dressed chips in the store this past month because of the Canadian boycott of Frito Lay
April 14, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Loving the All Dressed chips in the store this past month because of the Canadian boycott of Frito Lay
The AI race to the bottom for cheating student subs is strong.
February 21, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The AI race to the bottom for cheating student subs is strong.
Inspired by sovereign wealth funds, I was revisiting the evidence on the 2nd bank and Biddle v Jackson; and Big surprise the corruption was real: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
THIS MEANS (BANK) WAR! CORRUPTION AND CREDIBLE COMMITMENTS IN THE COLLAPSE OF THE SECOND BANK OF THE UNITED STATES | Journal of the History of Economic Thought | Cambridge Core
THIS MEANS (BANK) WAR! CORRUPTION AND CREDIBLE COMMITMENTS IN THE COLLAPSE OF THE SECOND BANK OF THE UNITED STATES - Volume 37 Issue 2
www.cambridge.org
February 4, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Inspired by sovereign wealth funds, I was revisiting the evidence on the 2nd bank and Biddle v Jackson; and Big surprise the corruption was real: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Public opinion is awesome
December 12, 2024 at 8:01 PM
Public opinion is awesome
So this helps explains why Gluesenkamp Perez didn't endorse her. Harris never talked to her. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/u...
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Wants Fellow Democrats to Look in the Mirror
Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is on track to win re-election in a rural Washington district, says her party needs to stop demonizing others and change the candidates it supports.
www.nytimes.com
November 8, 2024 at 11:17 PM
So this helps explains why Gluesenkamp Perez didn't endorse her. Harris never talked to her. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/u...
Is there a better poll out there? Hoping we can put the beer item test to bed www.newsweek.com/kamala-harri...
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in "beer" poll that predicted past winners
The question of who voters would rather have a drink with has been used to determine a presidential candidate's likability for years.
www.newsweek.com
November 6, 2024 at 4:00 PM
Is there a better poll out there? Hoping we can put the beer item test to bed www.newsweek.com/kamala-harri...
I guess I am out alone by having Michigan turnout going down this year. gitlab.com/smidtc-elect...
But data be what they be.
But data be what they be.
smidtc-electionscience / 2024-mi-turnout · GitLab
GitLab.com
gitlab.com
November 5, 2024 at 5:55 PM
I guess I am out alone by having Michigan turnout going down this year. gitlab.com/smidtc-elect...
But data be what they be.
But data be what they be.
Grant proposal challenge unlocked - get funding for mascot.
Annie, an Anisakis larva being zapped through the chest with lightning, is the mascot for a research project at Kumamoto University that uses electricity to repel parasites from Japan’s sushi and other raw food.
November 4, 2024 at 1:36 PM
Grant proposal challenge unlocked - get funding for mascot.
Trump's final rally Monday is in Grand Rapids Michigan, birthplace of public water fluoridation www.historygrandrapids.org/photo/752/fl...
Fluoridation Sculpture,
A view of the thirty-three-foot high sculpture, Steel Water, looking toward the southeast. The wave-shaped pieces of three-quarter-inch steel, representing flowing water, are painted bright blue and a...
www.historygrandrapids.org
November 3, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Trump's final rally Monday is in Grand Rapids Michigan, birthplace of public water fluoridation www.historygrandrapids.org/photo/752/fl...
Based on a normal vote, campaigns don't matter county level turnout and partisan split estimate: Michigan's two-party vote split averages 54% D this year. All recent polls in Michigan (outside NYT/Sienna) have 1) Republican PID equal or ahead of Democrats; 2) Harris outperforming the PID split.
November 3, 2024 at 6:00 PM
Based on a normal vote, campaigns don't matter county level turnout and partisan split estimate: Michigan's two-party vote split averages 54% D this year. All recent polls in Michigan (outside NYT/Sienna) have 1) Republican PID equal or ahead of Democrats; 2) Harris outperforming the PID split.
Just saw this Suffolk poll oversampled Kent (300n) last week under the claim it is a bellwether. Kent is the opposite of a bellwether! It is negatively correlated with state trends. www.freep.com/story/news/p...
Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, tied in Pennsylvania, new CNN polls show
Harris holds leads in Wisconsin and Michigan outside the margins of error, a new CNN poll found, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania.
www.usatoday.com
November 2, 2024 at 6:50 PM
Just saw this Suffolk poll oversampled Kent (300n) last week under the claim it is a bellwether. Kent is the opposite of a bellwether! It is negatively correlated with state trends. www.freep.com/story/news/p...
If EPIC-MRA has Harris up 3 with a +1 Republican sample that's really good news for Harris. ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/pre...
ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net
November 2, 2024 at 5:25 PM
If EPIC-MRA has Harris up 3 with a +1 Republican sample that's really good news for Harris. ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/pre...
@egojunk.bsky.social you were right to give Hertel the 6 points vs Barrett
November 1, 2024 at 10:11 PM
@egojunk.bsky.social you were right to give Hertel the 6 points vs Barrett
Haven't discussed it over here, so time to review. 1) estimates of MI turnout expected to be DOWN compared to 2020. 2) if we only look at turnout in February and August, we would expect less than 5 million voters (10% lower). 3) BUT Presidential primary turnout likely not as good an indicator
November 1, 2024 at 9:02 PM
Haven't discussed it over here, so time to review. 1) estimates of MI turnout expected to be DOWN compared to 2020. 2) if we only look at turnout in February and August, we would expect less than 5 million voters (10% lower). 3) BUT Presidential primary turnout likely not as good an indicator
A full battleground day. I got the Voteblue kid at the door to show me everything on his app (he only wanted to talk to my wife). My wife had to help the CMG research phone pollster pronounce Kamala and Hertel.
October 18, 2024 at 2:01 AM
A full battleground day. I got the Voteblue kid at the door to show me everything on his app (he only wanted to talk to my wife). My wife had to help the CMG research phone pollster pronounce Kamala and Hertel.
Just took an AI-generated survey from a political scientist through a online survey house. Took lots of time between page clicks. Nearly half of the questions were blank or response were blank. One block recycled three times. Not there yet.
October 17, 2024 at 1:04 AM
Just took an AI-generated survey from a political scientist through a online survey house. Took lots of time between page clicks. Nearly half of the questions were blank or response were blank. One block recycled three times. Not there yet.
Outside of abortion, the most common theme in Michigan campaign mailers
October 5, 2024 at 6:44 PM
Outside of abortion, the most common theme in Michigan campaign mailers
Follow up on the much older Michigan voter for class today.
Obviously baby boomers are getting older, but another factor is the much lower 18-29 turnout rate observed so far this year.
2020 turnout = 62%
2024 expectation = 44%
Obviously baby boomers are getting older, but another factor is the much lower 18-29 turnout rate observed so far this year.
2020 turnout = 62%
2024 expectation = 44%
September 30, 2024 at 1:10 PM
Follow up on the much older Michigan voter for class today.
Obviously baby boomers are getting older, but another factor is the much lower 18-29 turnout rate observed so far this year.
2020 turnout = 62%
2024 expectation = 44%
Obviously baby boomers are getting older, but another factor is the much lower 18-29 turnout rate observed so far this year.
2020 turnout = 62%
2024 expectation = 44%
FWIW my predictions have the median age for Michigan voters at 58 (oldest since 2014), the 65+ demo should be ≥30% . www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Michigan Likely Electorate
www.nytimes.com
September 28, 2024 at 2:34 PM
FWIW my predictions have the median age for Michigan voters at 58 (oldest since 2014), the 65+ demo should be ≥30% . www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
A county that swings only +/- 1 pt isn't a swing county. www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
www.wsj.com
August 19, 2024 at 3:04 AM
A county that swings only +/- 1 pt isn't a swing county. www.wsj.com/politics/ele...