How much of this is new policies vs just crazy inflation since 2020? fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUCS...

Many ultra-high-net-worth individuals are drawn to the exclusivity and aesthetic of waterfront property, regardless of the climate risks. The ability to self-insure and pay in cash removes many of the typical financial constraints or regulatory hurdles that would otherwise deter such investments.

Yes. Could be representativeness issues (grid vs point) or other assimilation or model biases. Gridded products ≠ in situ observations. I developed a dataset to deal with these issues: essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....

Glad this issue is getting attention! But isn't this what trend preserving approaches like Cannon et al. (2015) are supposed to help with? LOCA's bias correction may not be trend preserving (not sure)

I’m an independent climate risk researcher working at the intersection of climate science, infrastructure, and decision-making. I focus on hazard modeling, risk quantification, and integrating social science into climate resilience. More on my work & publications: www.djrasmussen.co (12/12)

Our preliminary estimates are consistent with FEMA’s elevations—but are based on 70 years of observations, not modeled storms. They also avoid potentially problematic EV fitting assumptions (e.g., MLE) and include full uncertainty estimates (see: ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/11/...) (11/12)

More work is coming. We’re expanding this framework (again led by Joao Morim) to develop fully probabilistic estimates of storm surge extremes for the U.S. and select territories (10/12)

📄 Article: rdcu.be/eh8gu (9/12)

Regardless of attribution, our findings have implications for infrastructure design. Planners and engineers with long horizons should consider storminess w/ sea-level rise. The now-revoked Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) is still a useful reference (8/12) www.fema.gov/sites/defaul...

Though modest in magnitude, I’d argue these trends matter. It’s possible that internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing are exerting opposing influences—partially masking the full signal. Disentangling these drivers requires large ensemble simulations (7/12)

We do not directly attribute these changes to anthropogenic climate forcing, but they are consistent with known shifts in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and mean sea level, both of which are projected to continue rising. (6/12)

These trends have accelerated in several regions since 1975. In hotspots—especially the Gulf and Southeast Atlantic coasts—storm surge extremes are increasing at rates comparable to or exceeding MSL rise. (5/12)

The result: we find robust, spatially coherent trends in storm surge extremes along 70% of the U.S. coastline—contradicting the longstanding view that such regional trends in storminess don’t exist.

In some areas, the magnitude of these trends rivals contributors to regional sea-level rise. (4/12)

We use a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model to combine 70 years of tide gauge data across the U.S. This framework accounts for spatial dependence across sites and quantifies uncertainty in the estimated trends. (3/12)

Previous studies using tide gauges have identified storm surge trends at a few U.S. locations—but the results have been inconsistent. No robust evidence of regionally coherent trends have emerged. (2/12)

Been wondering about home value growth. JP Morgan mentioned it, but it’s often left out of the insurance gap convo. Home values have nearly tripled in some places since early 2010s. How could premiums possibly keep up? Lots of factors at play but feels like more attention is needed on this.

Interesting read, thanks! Home values have nearly tripled in some markets since 2012 (eg., Calif). How significant is the gap between rising asset values and the rate at which premiums have increased?

Absolutely. And yes, humility goes a long way to win folks over, especially those that are also modelers. Nuance just doesnt get the same amount of clicks

Risk is not hazard but it’s great marketing for selling data. They (and others) seem to have found a niche conflating increases in property insurance premiums (largely a result of socioeconomic factors) with changes in hazard frequency and intensity.