Cheryl Josie
@cheryljosie.bsky.social
Engineer who plots inconvenient data
I installed some panels for the first grid-connected solar photovoltaic neighborhood in the world
cheryl_josie is my X̄ profile that I call Mean because Twitter is mean now that Elon owns it
I installed some panels for the first grid-connected solar photovoltaic neighborhood in the world
cheryl_josie is my X̄ profile that I call Mean because Twitter is mean now that Elon owns it
Peter Kornbluh: "This is wonton murder."
November 9, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Peter Kornbluh: "This is wonton murder."
Here's the entire compensated data series zoomed normal. You can see how the second plot (Multivariate ENSO Index v.2) has a more 'peaky' look to the Pinatubo and Hunga Tonga eruptions, which looks more authentic (is it?) than the (first) plot compensated with the Niño 3.4 index.
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Here's the entire compensated data series zoomed normal. You can see how the second plot (Multivariate ENSO Index v.2) has a more 'peaky' look to the Pinatubo and Hunga Tonga eruptions, which looks more authentic (is it?) than the (first) plot compensated with the Niño 3.4 index.
The most recent Sea Surface Temperature is also degraded. Climate Reanalyzer is releasing a 'preliminary' version now that is revised as the reanalysis settles.
It's better now but for a while the preliminary data was wildly waggling. The preliminary result settles eventually.
It's better now but for a while the preliminary data was wildly waggling. The preliminary result settles eventually.
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 AM
The most recent Sea Surface Temperature is also degraded. Climate Reanalyzer is releasing a 'preliminary' version now that is revised as the reanalysis settles.
It's better now but for a while the preliminary data was wildly waggling. The preliminary result settles eventually.
It's better now but for a while the preliminary data was wildly waggling. The preliminary result settles eventually.
The detected IPCC thresholds are also slightly different. The extrapolations of this model have a lot of error. They are normalized to the 2023-2024 region and the error grows far from that time.
I'm glad I can keep my model running, but disappointed that it seems degraded.
I'm glad I can keep my model running, but disappointed that it seems degraded.
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 AM
The detected IPCC thresholds are also slightly different. The extrapolations of this model have a lot of error. They are normalized to the 2023-2024 region and the error grows far from that time.
I'm glad I can keep my model running, but disappointed that it seems degraded.
I'm glad I can keep my model running, but disappointed that it seems degraded.
There seems to be less detected delay in the post-Pinatubo exponential attack and more detected delay in the post-Hunga Tonga exponential attack. The decays also seem to be rougher. I can't tell if either index gives a higher fidelity representation without statistical analysis.
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 AM
There seems to be less detected delay in the post-Pinatubo exponential attack and more detected delay in the post-Hunga Tonga exponential attack. The decays also seem to be rougher. I can't tell if either index gives a higher fidelity representation without statistical analysis.
Even though the Niño 3.4 Index seems to model the SST peaks better (first plot), the detected eruptions look less like the expected exponential attack and decay.
North Pacific Gyre data comes from Georgia Institute of Technology now that NOAA stopped.
www.o3d.org/npgo/
North Pacific Gyre data comes from Georgia Institute of Technology now that NOAA stopped.
www.o3d.org/npgo/
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Even though the Niño 3.4 Index seems to model the SST peaks better (first plot), the detected eruptions look less like the expected exponential attack and decay.
North Pacific Gyre data comes from Georgia Institute of Technology now that NOAA stopped.
www.o3d.org/npgo/
North Pacific Gyre data comes from Georgia Institute of Technology now that NOAA stopped.
www.o3d.org/npgo/
NOAA stopped publishing the Multivariate ENSO Index v.2 a couple months ago. I had to switch to the temperature-only Niño 3.4 Index. With less climate information in the model, the compensated SST (first plot) is less visually exponential after eruptions.
psl.noaa.gov/data/correla...
psl.noaa.gov/data/correla...
November 3, 2025 at 7:28 AM
NOAA stopped publishing the Multivariate ENSO Index v.2 a couple months ago. I had to switch to the temperature-only Niño 3.4 Index. With less climate information in the model, the compensated SST (first plot) is less visually exponential after eruptions.
psl.noaa.gov/data/correla...
psl.noaa.gov/data/correla...
October 15, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Governor Newsom denies that he knows AIPAC😇
Luke 22:54-62
“Thank you @GavinNewsom
for visiting Israel and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our ally,” wrote AIPAC on social media in October 2023 after the California governor made a trip to Israel.
www.mediaite.com/politics/gav...
Luke 22:54-62
“Thank you @GavinNewsom
for visiting Israel and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our ally,” wrote AIPAC on social media in October 2023 after the California governor made a trip to Israel.
www.mediaite.com/politics/gav...
October 15, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Governor Newsom denies that he knows AIPAC😇
Luke 22:54-62
“Thank you @GavinNewsom
for visiting Israel and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our ally,” wrote AIPAC on social media in October 2023 after the California governor made a trip to Israel.
www.mediaite.com/politics/gav...
Luke 22:54-62
“Thank you @GavinNewsom
for visiting Israel and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with our ally,” wrote AIPAC on social media in October 2023 after the California governor made a trip to Israel.
www.mediaite.com/politics/gav...
The Review's April 2024 final report recommended that puberty suppression with gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogues (GnRHa) should only be available to transgender (trans) adolescents in a clinical trial, which has not commenced.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/...
October 10, 2025 at 3:37 AM
The Review's April 2024 final report recommended that puberty suppression with gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogues (GnRHa) should only be available to transgender (trans) adolescents in a clinical trial, which has not commenced.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/...
The Cass Review holds trans people’s health care to exceptionalized and arbitrary standards—not the established best practices for medicine.
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-journa...
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-journa...
October 10, 2025 at 3:20 AM
The Cass Review holds trans people’s health care to exceptionalized and arbitrary standards—not the established best practices for medicine.
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-journa...
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-journa...
The recommendations, released by the Association of the Scientific Medical Societies in Germany, come at a time when US politicians erroneously claim that Europe is "pulling back" on transgender care.
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-german...
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-german...
October 10, 2025 at 3:18 AM
The recommendations, released by the Association of the Scientific Medical Societies in Germany, come at a time when US politicians erroneously claim that Europe is "pulling back" on transgender care.
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-german...
www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-german...
Novavax at Costco walk-in no wait last appt of the day. Didn’t feel the needle. 👍
I’ve had nearly every Covid vaccine formulation ever offered in the US: Janssen, Pfizer x3, Moderna x3, Novavax. No serious side effects. 😷
Back later for pneumonia and flu vx. Been lax on them.
I’ve had nearly every Covid vaccine formulation ever offered in the US: Janssen, Pfizer x3, Moderna x3, Novavax. No serious side effects. 😷
Back later for pneumonia and flu vx. Been lax on them.
October 9, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Novavax at Costco walk-in no wait last appt of the day. Didn’t feel the needle. 👍
I’ve had nearly every Covid vaccine formulation ever offered in the US: Janssen, Pfizer x3, Moderna x3, Novavax. No serious side effects. 😷
Back later for pneumonia and flu vx. Been lax on them.
I’ve had nearly every Covid vaccine formulation ever offered in the US: Janssen, Pfizer x3, Moderna x3, Novavax. No serious side effects. 😷
Back later for pneumonia and flu vx. Been lax on them.
Rancor erupted in the House of Representatives over Lauren Boebert's call for a spoken prayer to memorialize slain far right groomer Charlie Kirk.
Someone dropped an F bomb on the floor of the House in response.
Don't honor groomers.
I've leveled the audio for intelligibility.
Someone dropped an F bomb on the floor of the House in response.
Don't honor groomers.
I've leveled the audio for intelligibility.
September 11, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Rancor erupted in the House of Representatives over Lauren Boebert's call for a spoken prayer to memorialize slain far right groomer Charlie Kirk.
Someone dropped an F bomb on the floor of the House in response.
Don't honor groomers.
I've leveled the audio for intelligibility.
Someone dropped an F bomb on the floor of the House in response.
Don't honor groomers.
I've leveled the audio for intelligibility.
I've contacted several prominent climate scientists and asked them to investigate my findings. My result seemingly contradicts recent atmospheric modeling of Hunga Tonga that predicted net cooling instead of warming. I'd like to understand the disconnect rather than guessing why.
September 10, 2025 at 11:46 AM
I've contacted several prominent climate scientists and asked them to investigate my findings. My result seemingly contradicts recent atmospheric modeling of Hunga Tonga that predicted net cooling instead of warming. I'd like to understand the disconnect rather than guessing why.
Once my low noise compensated surface temperature measurement is renormalized with a slope as well as an intercept, the anthropogenic global surface warming trend in my plot should get slightly steeper. That will accelerate the predicted crossing of IPCC warming thresholds.
September 10, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Once my low noise compensated surface temperature measurement is renormalized with a slope as well as an intercept, the anthropogenic global surface warming trend in my plot should get slightly steeper. That will accelerate the predicted crossing of IPCC warming thresholds.
An enhancement I anticipate is adjusting the slope of the plot to account for the difference between the rate of SST warming and the rate of 2MT warming. I'll use a 70/30 weighting between SST and 2MT for relative ocean vs land area, similar to what I used for the intercepts.
September 10, 2025 at 11:46 AM
An enhancement I anticipate is adjusting the slope of the plot to account for the difference between the rate of SST warming and the rate of 2MT warming. I'll use a 70/30 weighting between SST and 2MT for relative ocean vs land area, similar to what I used for the intercepts.
I expect the Hunga Tonga warming to have substantially decayed by 2028, six years after the eruption, similar to Pinatubo's exponential decay rate that is controlled by the mass of the ocean and its radiative forcing. Measured SST should rejoin the anthropogenic trend by then.
September 10, 2025 at 11:46 AM
I expect the Hunga Tonga warming to have substantially decayed by 2028, six years after the eruption, similar to Pinatubo's exponential decay rate that is controlled by the mass of the ocean and its radiative forcing. Measured SST should rejoin the anthropogenic trend by then.
Climate scientists will have a difficult time explaining the seemingly 'paused' global warming if they don't acknowledge the Hunga Tonga pulsed warming, or at least identify whatever else caused it. The resemblance to Pinatubo decaying effect is undeniable.
September 10, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Climate scientists will have a difficult time explaining the seemingly 'paused' global warming if they don't acknowledge the Hunga Tonga pulsed warming, or at least identify whatever else caused it. The resemblance to Pinatubo decaying effect is undeniable.
Short term compensated sea surface temperature continues modeling well as an exponentially decaying pulsed warming from Hunga Tonga that is superpositioned with anthropogenic global warming, forming a 9 year 'paused' warming trend.
September 10, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Short term compensated sea surface temperature continues modeling well as an exponentially decaying pulsed warming from Hunga Tonga that is superpositioned with anthropogenic global warming, forming a 9 year 'paused' warming trend.
Sunset over the San Francisco Bay by the Newark Slough at Don Edwards wildlife reserve.
August 30, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Sunset over the San Francisco Bay by the Newark Slough at Don Edwards wildlife reserve.