Charlie McCurdy
@charliemccurdy.bsky.social
Economist @ resolution foundation covering jobs, demographic change and regional inequalities.
Finally, today’s revised figures for total pay growth in the 3-months to July (4.8%) will set next year’s state pension increase. We calculate that the new state pension will rise by £576 to £12,582 a year.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Finally, today’s revised figures for total pay growth in the 3-months to July (4.8%) will set next year’s state pension increase. We calculate that the new state pension will rise by £576 to £12,582 a year.
But slowing pay growth is bad news for workers. After adjusting for inflation, average weekly pay has increased by a meagre £1.50 over the last 11 months – just about enough to cover the cost of a Greggs sausage roll.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
But slowing pay growth is bad news for workers. After adjusting for inflation, average weekly pay has increased by a meagre £1.50 over the last 11 months – just about enough to cover the cost of a Greggs sausage roll.
Shorter-term measures suggest an even more rapid slowdown over the summer. Nominal private sector pay growth slowed to annualised rate of 3.5% in the 3-months to August compared to the previous 3-months.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Shorter-term measures suggest an even more rapid slowdown over the summer. Nominal private sector pay growth slowed to annualised rate of 3.5% in the 3-months to August compared to the previous 3-months.
This weakening jobs market is feeding through into pay, something the Bank of England will be reassured to see. Annualised regular nominal pay grew by 4.7% in the 3-months to August – a rate not seen since 2022.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
This weakening jobs market is feeding through into pay, something the Bank of England will be reassured to see. Annualised regular nominal pay grew by 4.7% in the 3-months to August – a rate not seen since 2022.
And in further signs of a cooling labour market, we’ve also seen a continued gradual rise in the unemployment rate (where we think the LFS rate is much more accurate), up to 4.8% in the latest data. Vacancies have also fallen for the 39th month in a row.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
And in further signs of a cooling labour market, we’ve also seen a continued gradual rise in the unemployment rate (where we think the LFS rate is much more accurate), up to 4.8% in the latest data. Vacancies have also fallen for the 39th month in a row.
Combined with population data, we estimate an employment rate of 75.3% in August and 75.2% in September. (The employment *rate* is falling even though jobs aren’t, because the population is growing.) The ONS’ LFS-based rate is also falling, although there are still questions around this data.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Combined with population data, we estimate an employment rate of 75.3% in August and 75.2% in September. (The employment *rate* is falling even though jobs aren’t, because the population is growing.) The ONS’ LFS-based rate is also falling, although there are still questions around this data.
The number of payrolled employees has remained steady in recent months, after falling by 127,000 between Oct 2024 and June 2025. Employee jobs rose marginally (by 10k) in August and early estimates suggest they fell back by about the same amount in September.
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
The number of payrolled employees has remained steady in recent months, after falling by 127,000 between Oct 2024 and June 2025. Employee jobs rose marginally (by 10k) in August and early estimates suggest they fell back by about the same amount in September.
This unequal geography of ageing in England & Wales represents all sorts of challenges for policymakers. Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
July 30, 2025 at 3:04 PM
This unequal geography of ageing in England & Wales represents all sorts of challenges for policymakers. Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
July 30, 2025 at 3:04 PM
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall. We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
July 30, 2025 at 3:04 PM
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall. We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021.
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
July 30, 2025 at 3:04 PM
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021.
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
New ONS population data covering England and Wales up to the middle of 2024.
Killer chart from @georginasturge.bsky.social
shows population growth has been going gangbusters in recent years, growing at a higher rate than any period since the World Wars.
More below👇
Killer chart from @georginasturge.bsky.social
shows population growth has been going gangbusters in recent years, growing at a higher rate than any period since the World Wars.
More below👇
July 30, 2025 at 3:04 PM
New ONS population data covering England and Wales up to the middle of 2024.
Killer chart from @georginasturge.bsky.social
shows population growth has been going gangbusters in recent years, growing at a higher rate than any period since the World Wars.
More below👇
Killer chart from @georginasturge.bsky.social
shows population growth has been going gangbusters in recent years, growing at a higher rate than any period since the World Wars.
More below👇
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
July 30, 2025 at 2:58 PM
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall. We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
July 30, 2025 at 2:58 PM
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall. We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021.
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
July 30, 2025 at 2:58 PM
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021.
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
This unequal geography of ageing in England & Wales represents all sorts of challenges for policymakers.
Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
July 30, 2025 at 2:48 PM
This unequal geography of ageing in England & Wales represents all sorts of challenges for policymakers.
Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
July 30, 2025 at 2:48 PM
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall.
We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
July 30, 2025 at 2:48 PM
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall.
We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021. However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
July 30, 2025 at 2:48 PM
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021. However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
4: young men are more likely to live with their parent(s) than young women. 1/3 of men aged 20-34 did so in 2024, compared to less than 1/4 of women that age.
generally speaking adults are reaching milestones later in life (e.g. having kids).
generally speaking adults are reaching milestones later in life (e.g. having kids).
July 23, 2025 at 12:54 PM
4: young men are more likely to live with their parent(s) than young women. 1/3 of men aged 20-34 did so in 2024, compared to less than 1/4 of women that age.
generally speaking adults are reaching milestones later in life (e.g. having kids).
generally speaking adults are reaching milestones later in life (e.g. having kids).
3. all of the rise in people living alone is accounted for by people aged 65 and over - reflecting an ageing population.
(worth noting that living alone and loneliness don't always mean the same thing e.g. separate evidence shows that young adults are most likely to experience loneliness)
(worth noting that living alone and loneliness don't always mean the same thing e.g. separate evidence shows that young adults are most likely to experience loneliness)
July 23, 2025 at 12:54 PM
3. all of the rise in people living alone is accounted for by people aged 65 and over - reflecting an ageing population.
(worth noting that living alone and loneliness don't always mean the same thing e.g. separate evidence shows that young adults are most likely to experience loneliness)
(worth noting that living alone and loneliness don't always mean the same thing e.g. separate evidence shows that young adults are most likely to experience loneliness)
2. more people are living alone: over 8m people lived alone in 2024 (from 7.6m in 2014) - that's almost a third of all households.
July 23, 2025 at 12:54 PM
2. more people are living alone: over 8m people lived alone in 2024 (from 7.6m in 2014) - that's almost a third of all households.
Nevertheless, the direction of travel looks clear. Firms expect that pay growth will continue to ease. Expected year-ahead wage growth in June 2025 was 3.6% - a rate of pay growth that the Bank of England deems much more manageable.
July 17, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Nevertheless, the direction of travel looks clear. Firms expect that pay growth will continue to ease. Expected year-ahead wage growth in June 2025 was 3.6% - a rate of pay growth that the Bank of England deems much more manageable.
Some measures of pay point to stronger pay growth than others: using HMRCs payroll data median pay grew by 5.7% while mean pay grew by 4.4% over the year to May.
July 17, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Some measures of pay point to stronger pay growth than others: using HMRCs payroll data median pay grew by 5.7% while mean pay grew by 4.4% over the year to May.
Looking at higher-frequency measures shows a fall in nominal private sector earnings growth: quarter-on-quarter earnings grew by the equivalent of 3.7% over the year, down from 4.3% in the previous 3-months.
July 17, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Looking at higher-frequency measures shows a fall in nominal private sector earnings growth: quarter-on-quarter earnings grew by the equivalent of 3.7% over the year, down from 4.3% in the previous 3-months.