Charles Tallack
@charlestallack.bsky.social
Senior Fellow @HealthFdn. Ex-Whitehall civil servant & NHS England.
Love ideas, numbers, analysis, evidence, debate and challenge. Views my own.
Love ideas, numbers, analysis, evidence, debate and challenge. Views my own.
I thought this very insightful too - initially it's specific tasks that get replaced first. Most jobs consist of more than specific tasks.
October 24, 2025 at 7:12 AM
I thought this very insightful too - initially it's specific tasks that get replaced first. Most jobs consist of more than specific tasks.
So sorry to hear this Sam and wishing you all the best.
August 18, 2025 at 4:26 PM
So sorry to hear this Sam and wishing you all the best.
You started off talking about people you know. Now you're talking about friends, which is even more prescriptive.
Do most people really know how everyone they know votes? I don't tell everyone I know!
Do most people really know how everyone they know votes? I don't tell everyone I know!
August 13, 2025 at 5:12 PM
You started off talking about people you know. Now you're talking about friends, which is even more prescriptive.
Do most people really know how everyone they know votes? I don't tell everyone I know!
Do most people really know how everyone they know votes? I don't tell everyone I know!
Nice report, covering our analysis and more, by @jamesillman.bsky.social for @hsj.co.uk here:
www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-...
www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-...
‘Extra appointments’ celebrated by govt deliver ‘modest impact’ on waiting lists
The "4.6 million extra NHS appointments" championed by the prime minister and health secretary have only had a "modest impact" on reducing waiting list clock stops, a vital part of cutting the NHS's elective care backlog, according to new analysis shared exclusively with HSJ.
www.hsj.co.uk
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Nice report, covering our analysis and more, by @jamesillman.bsky.social for @hsj.co.uk here:
www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-...
www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-...
It’s not clear why appointments are growing faster than growth in completed pathways. More diagnostic tests per pathway is a longstanding trend linked to rise in demand for diagnostic tests. But 9% growth in outpatients, when there's a drive to avoid unnecessary outpatient appointments, is puzzling.
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
It’s not clear why appointments are growing faster than growth in completed pathways. More diagnostic tests per pathway is a longstanding trend linked to rise in demand for diagnostic tests. But 9% growth in outpatients, when there's a drive to avoid unnecessary outpatient appointments, is puzzling.
If the ratio had been maintained at 3.9, completions pathways would have grown by 7.9% or 1.16m rather than 344,000. Under this hypothetical scenario, the waiting list would have been 820,000 smaller.
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
If the ratio had been maintained at 3.9, completions pathways would have grown by 7.9% or 1.16m rather than 344,000. Under this hypothetical scenario, the waiting list would have been 820,000 smaller.
Completed pathways increased by 2.3% vs 7.9% for appointments. They haven’t risen as quickly as appointments because appointments per completed pathways has increased from 3.9 in July 23 – April 24, to 4.1 a year later.
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Completed pathways increased by 2.3% vs 7.9% for appointments. They haven’t risen as quickly as appointments because appointments per completed pathways has increased from 3.9 in July 23 – April 24, to 4.1 a year later.
Second – how have the extra appointments translated into completed pathways (treatments) from the waiting list?
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Second – how have the extra appointments translated into completed pathways (treatments) from the waiting list?
First – is it a notable achievement? 4.6m extra appointments is an increase of 7.9% (table 1). But applying exactly the same approach to the previous year, (ie Jul 23 – Apr 24) the growth in appointments under the Conservatives was 5.5m, an increase of 10.5% (table 2).
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
First – is it a notable achievement? 4.6m extra appointments is an increase of 7.9% (table 1). But applying exactly the same approach to the previous year, (ie Jul 23 – Apr 24) the growth in appointments under the Conservatives was 5.5m, an increase of 10.5% (table 2).
The methodology is sound (they standardise baseline to adjust for different working days). Some might quibble that the growth is artificially inflated because of strikes in the earlier period. But there are other issues.
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
The methodology is sound (they standardise baseline to adjust for different working days). Some might quibble that the growth is artificially inflated because of strikes in the earlier period. But there are other issues.
4.6 million is the number of appointments between July 2024 and April 2025 in excess of the number delivered in the same period in the previous year. It’s all set out in an NHS E publication.
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s...
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s...
Statistics » Recovery of Elective Activity
Statistics » Recovery of Elective Activity
www.england.nhs.uk
August 11, 2025 at 7:17 AM
4.6 million is the number of appointments between July 2024 and April 2025 in excess of the number delivered in the same period in the previous year. It’s all set out in an NHS E publication.
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s...
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s...
If the elasticity turns out to be as HMRC estimate, the measure wouldn't raise much money (from gamblers), but it would reduce gambling, including that which causes harm?
August 8, 2025 at 8:29 AM
If the elasticity turns out to be as HMRC estimate, the measure wouldn't raise much money (from gamblers), but it would reduce gambling, including that which causes harm?
100% agree with that. The government's approach so far, and measures in the 10 year plan, place far too much emphasis on personalised prevention approaches.
These can be beneficial but won't work at the scale necessary to address the vast health inequalities
These can be beneficial but won't work at the scale necessary to address the vast health inequalities
July 19, 2025 at 9:23 AM
100% agree with that. The government's approach so far, and measures in the 10 year plan, place far too much emphasis on personalised prevention approaches.
These can be beneficial but won't work at the scale necessary to address the vast health inequalities
These can be beneficial but won't work at the scale necessary to address the vast health inequalities
Our full report on our analysis with the ONS is here:
www.health.org.uk/reports-and-...
The ONS write-up and underlying data is here:
www.ons.gov.uk/releases/geo...
www.health.org.uk/reports-and-...
The ONS write-up and underlying data is here:
www.ons.gov.uk/releases/geo...
Geographic inequalities in premature mortality
Our new analysis explores the role of socioeconomic factors and ethnicity in premature deaths across England and Wales.
www.health.org.uk
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Our full report on our analysis with the ONS is here:
www.health.org.uk/reports-and-...
The ONS write-up and underlying data is here:
www.ons.gov.uk/releases/geo...
www.health.org.uk/reports-and-...
The ONS write-up and underlying data is here:
www.ons.gov.uk/releases/geo...
(2) reducing the link between socioeconomic factors and the proximate causes of ill health (eg smoking, alcohol, diet/obesity, physical activity). This will require both population level approaches (eg regulation of unhealthy food) and more targeted interventions (eg weight loss).
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
(2) reducing the link between socioeconomic factors and the proximate causes of ill health (eg smoking, alcohol, diet/obesity, physical activity). This will require both population level approaches (eg regulation of unhealthy food) and more targeted interventions (eg weight loss).
Given the importance of socioeconomic factors, narrowing the difference in healthy life expectancy between regions will require both: (1) reducing socioeconomic inequalities e.g. through regional investment and economic development; and
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Given the importance of socioeconomic factors, narrowing the difference in healthy life expectancy between regions will require both: (1) reducing socioeconomic inequalities e.g. through regional investment and economic development; and
What does all this mean? It’s well known that socioeconomic factors are amongst the most important wider determinants of health. But this analysis uniquely quantifies their impact drawing on individual level Census data.
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
What does all this mean? It’s well known that socioeconomic factors are amongst the most important wider determinants of health. But this analysis uniquely quantifies their impact drawing on individual level Census data.
These are the baseline and adjusted rates (for socioeconomic factors etc) for local authorities in all regions. When adjusted, around half have lower rates than Richmond. Compared to those in other regions, authorities in the North East do well.
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
These are the baseline and adjusted rates (for socioeconomic factors etc) for local authorities in all regions. When adjusted, around half have lower rates than Richmond. Compared to those in other regions, authorities in the North East do well.
This chart shows how the premature mortality rates of local authorities in the NE compare to those in Richmond. Some LAs have rates more than twice as LA.
But if the LAs had the same socioeconomic and ethnicity make-up as Richmond, all except Darlington would have lower rates.
But if the LAs had the same socioeconomic and ethnicity make-up as Richmond, all except Darlington would have lower rates.
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
This chart shows how the premature mortality rates of local authorities in the NE compare to those in Richmond. Some LAs have rates more than twice as LA.
But if the LAs had the same socioeconomic and ethnicity make-up as Richmond, all except Darlington would have lower rates.
But if the LAs had the same socioeconomic and ethnicity make-up as Richmond, all except Darlington would have lower rates.
They estimated what the premature mortality rate of each local authority would be if they had the same population make-up, on these characteristics, as Richmond upon Thames. This is uniquely possible through ONS’s linkage of Census 2021 to death on deaths.
July 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
They estimated what the premature mortality rate of each local authority would be if they had the same population make-up, on these characteristics, as Richmond upon Thames. This is uniquely possible through ONS’s linkage of Census 2021 to death on deaths.