Charles Kenny
@charlesjkenny.bsky.social
Fellow at the Center for Global Development, author of Getting Better and The Plague Cycle. (CGD doesn't have institutional positions, so don't blame it for mine).
Small island states received six times more adaptation finance per head than LDCs. This despite SIDS per capita income of $9700 8x higher than LDC average. There is virtually no relationship between adaptation finance per head and climate vulnerability indices.
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November 10, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Small island states received six times more adaptation finance per head than LDCs. This despite SIDS per capita income of $9700 8x higher than LDC average. There is virtually no relationship between adaptation finance per head and climate vulnerability indices.
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www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
Related: A new paper by Jonathan Beynon looks at link between vulnerability to climate change and who gets adaptation finance. Answer: most vulnerable to climate change are the poorest countries, the most generously provided with climate finance are small island states.
November 10, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Related: A new paper by Jonathan Beynon looks at link between vulnerability to climate change and who gets adaptation finance. Answer: most vulnerable to climate change are the poorest countries, the most generously provided with climate finance are small island states.
It also remains unclear from World Bank project documents why projects are tagged a given percentage climate finance. And it is clear that what is counted as ’mitigation finance’ is a terrible, awful, no-good measure of mitigation *impact.*
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
It also remains unclear from World Bank project documents why projects are tagged a given percentage climate finance. And it is clear that what is counted as ’mitigation finance’ is a terrible, awful, no-good measure of mitigation *impact.*
And even at the World Bank, despite comparative transparency, it remains very difficult to understand what the impact of climate targets and shadow carbon prices and so on have been on Bank lending –let alone on greenhouse gasses averted.
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
And even at the World Bank, despite comparative transparency, it remains very difficult to understand what the impact of climate targets and shadow carbon prices and so on have been on Bank lending –let alone on greenhouse gasses averted.
Suggests that, if (like me) you concerned that climate finance is eating effective development finance, that concern is probably less valid at the World Bank even if (i) it appears true more broadly (ii) the fear becomes bigger as climate finance grows.
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
The Crisis of Climate and Development Finance
On May 22, 2025, CGD senior fellow Charles Kenny delivered remarks at the Oxford Martin School, where he is a visiting fellow. His speech, “The Crisis of Climate and Development Finance," focused on t...
www.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Suggests that, if (like me) you concerned that climate finance is eating effective development finance, that concern is probably less valid at the World Bank even if (i) it appears true more broadly (ii) the fear becomes bigger as climate finance grows.
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
But also no strong pattern that a higher mitigation finance share in a World Bank project is associated with a higher increase in economic returns when accounting for a shadow price of carbon: i.e., that a larger share of mitigation finance means a bigger mitigation impact.
November 10, 2025 at 6:03 PM
But also no strong pattern that a higher mitigation finance share in a World Bank project is associated with a higher increase in economic returns when accounting for a shadow price of carbon: i.e., that a larger share of mitigation finance means a bigger mitigation impact.
There doesn’t seem to be any strong relationship between the percentage of World Bank project finance tagged as climate finance and local economic rates of return (excluding the shadow price of carbon) –in that sense, there no climate-development tradeoff in Bank finance.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
There doesn’t seem to be any strong relationship between the percentage of World Bank project finance tagged as climate finance and local economic rates of return (excluding the shadow price of carbon) –in that sense, there no climate-development tradeoff in Bank finance.
…or a whole project that passed the hurdle return purely on the grounds of the shadow cost of carbon --although there is some evidence of low-emissions investments that pass a hurdle rate, but may not be lowest cost in terms of energy production.
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
…or a whole project that passed the hurdle return purely on the grounds of the shadow cost of carbon --although there is some evidence of low-emissions investments that pass a hurdle rate, but may not be lowest cost in terms of energy production.
Looking at all World Bank projects that include climate finance in 2024 and the predicted economic rate of return they would deliver, I didn’t find any project that would clearly have failed the hurdle rate of return taking into consideration shadow cost of carbon…
November 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Looking at all World Bank projects that include climate finance in 2024 and the predicted economic rate of return they would deliver, I didn’t find any project that would clearly have failed the hurdle rate of return taking into consideration shadow cost of carbon…
Turning to sectors, a World Bank focus on climate concerns would suggest more financing for infrastructure (and in particular electricity) and agriculture. But these sectors don’t account for an increasing percentage of World Bank financing over past 10 years (if anything the reverse) --see picture.
November 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Turning to sectors, a World Bank focus on climate concerns would suggest more financing for infrastructure (and in particular electricity) and agriculture. But these sectors don’t account for an increasing percentage of World Bank financing over past 10 years (if anything the reverse) --see picture.
You might expect a focus on mitigation would foster more lending in high-emitting upper middle income countries and an adaptation focus would push lending to the poorest countries that are most affected. But World Bank country allocation mechanisms haven’t really changed to account for climate.
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
You might expect a focus on mitigation would foster more lending in high-emitting upper middle income countries and an adaptation focus would push lending to the poorest countries that are most affected. But World Bank country allocation mechanisms haven’t really changed to account for climate.
My paper asks ‘"do World Bank climate targets and carbon prices change the World Bank portfolio?" and comes back with the answer “maybe yes, but at most marginally.”
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www.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:54 PM
My paper asks ‘"do World Bank climate targets and carbon prices change the World Bank portfolio?" and comes back with the answer “maybe yes, but at most marginally.”
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www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
Euan's paper: World Bank Climate Mitigation What Gets Measured and What Gets Missed
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www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
www.cgdev.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Euan's paper: World Bank Climate Mitigation What Gets Measured and What Gets Missed
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Euan’s paper suggests some reason for doubt when it comes to the numbers for the few mitigation projects with an estimated emissions impact, including back of the envelope calculations which are extremely generous is assigning credit.
November 10, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Euan’s paper suggests some reason for doubt when it comes to the numbers for the few mitigation projects with an estimated emissions impact, including back of the envelope calculations which are extremely generous is assigning credit.
Most World Bank mitigation finance commitments are for projects that do not track impact on GHG emissions as a performance indicator – and just 4% of commitments to LICs with a mitigation component track GHG emissions.
November 10, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Most World Bank mitigation finance commitments are for projects that do not track impact on GHG emissions as a performance indicator – and just 4% of commitments to LICs with a mitigation component track GHG emissions.
Euan’s paper finds Mitigation projects overwhelmingly aim to increase electricity generation; reduce transport time; increase energy access. in LICs and LMICs, three quarters of 100 percent-mitigation projects are about energy capacity, access and/or efficiency.
November 10, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Euan’s paper finds Mitigation projects overwhelmingly aim to increase electricity generation; reduce transport time; increase energy access. in LICs and LMICs, three quarters of 100 percent-mitigation projects are about energy capacity, access and/or efficiency.
As introduction, worth noting a focus on World Bank is driven by importance but also the fact that it is comparatively transparent about what it is doing, and I think both papers benefited from feedback from WB staff –thank you.
November 10, 2025 at 5:47 PM
As introduction, worth noting a focus on World Bank is driven by importance but also the fact that it is comparatively transparent about what it is doing, and I think both papers benefited from feedback from WB staff –thank you.
Thanks! Good to see you too!
November 9, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Thanks! Good to see you too!
"Temporary work visas increase as governments attempt to plug labor shortage... Across the OECD, [the number] rose from 1.5 million in 2014 to 2.5 million in 2023; even anti-immigration governments such as Italy and Hungary have increased them..."
www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
Temporary work visas increase as governments attempt to plug labor shortage
Across the OECD, temporary working visas rose from 1.5 million in 2014 to 2.5 million in 2023.
www.semafor.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:23 PM
"Temporary work visas increase as governments attempt to plug labor shortage... Across the OECD, [the number] rose from 1.5 million in 2014 to 2.5 million in 2023; even anti-immigration governments such as Italy and Hungary have increased them..."
www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
"The cost of hiring help to care for an elderly or a sick person at home is skyrocketing... the White House's crackdown on immigration and funding cuts are making things worse."
www.axios.com/2025/10/30/t...
www.axios.com/2025/10/30/t...
In-home elder care cost is rising more than three times faster than inflation
So far this year, the price of in-home care for the elderly, disabled or convalescent at home is up 10%.
www.axios.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:20 PM
"The cost of hiring help to care for an elderly or a sick person at home is skyrocketing... the White House's crackdown on immigration and funding cuts are making things worse."
www.axios.com/2025/10/30/t...
www.axios.com/2025/10/30/t...
"significant dips in hiring and a downgraded economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office are telling signs that mass deportations and strict immigration policies are negatively impacting the economy."
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
MSN
www.msn.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"significant dips in hiring and a downgraded economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office are telling signs that mass deportations and strict immigration policies are negatively impacting the economy."
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
7. But to repeat: the Chinese contractor 'problem' isn't really a problem. So the other option is 'go fix a real problem instead' --as it might be, IDA uselessly chucking money at the IFC ;-)
blog: www.cgdev.org/blog/if-you-...
note: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
blog: www.cgdev.org/blog/if-you-...
note: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
If You Want China to Win Fewer MDB Financed Contracts, Increase Policy Lending
I have just published a note about enforced local preferences in multilateral development bank (MDB)-financed procurement. The paper assumes the reader believes such preferences might be good for clie...
www.cgdev.org
October 31, 2025 at 6:52 PM
7. But to repeat: the Chinese contractor 'problem' isn't really a problem. So the other option is 'go fix a real problem instead' --as it might be, IDA uselessly chucking money at the IFC ;-)
blog: www.cgdev.org/blog/if-you-...
note: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...
blog: www.cgdev.org/blog/if-you-...
note: www.cgdev.org/sites/defaul...