Cavan Bonner
cavanvbonner.bsky.social
Cavan Bonner
@cavanvbonner.bsky.social
Doctoral student researching personality development at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Self-regulation, adversity, and identity. www.cavanbonner.com
Pinned
Do you need to suffer in order to build character? No: in a sample of 682 youth, about 80% of the youth who increased in effortful control or emotional stability (>/= 1/5th of a SD) were not exposed to high levels of (observer-rated) adversity.
Growth Following Adversity is Rare: Evidence from a Multi-Informant Longitudinal Study of Children and Adolescents: https://osf.io/93nxb
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
📣 Digital Research Community!

The new UK Adolescent Health Study will follow 100k young people (8–18yrs) for 10+ years. Please share what digital technology measures you think it should include.

Please complete this survey (by 24th November 2025 @ 9AM): cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
Adolescent Health Survey - Digital Media
Expert guidance shaping digital media questions in upcoming Adolescent Health Study.
cambridge.eu.qualtrics.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Y'all. N>3,800. !!!!!!!

Goodness gracious.
When do interaction/moderation effects stabilize in linear regression?: https://osf.io/35t84
November 12, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Had a great day yesterday with the first annual Midwestern Personality Meeting held in our own Champaign/Urbana. H/T to @cavanvbonner.bsky.social, Muchen Xi, and Derek Simon for organizing. @chops310.bsky.social @rcfraley.bsky.social @jaime.phd @jessiesun.bsky.social @joshuajackson.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Youyou Tu's work on anti-malarial compounds that saved millions of lives (w/Nobel+Lasker recognition) wins the low citation/huge impact cell. The original paper has 87 citations as of today: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11721477/ Hopefully she can get to 100.

What for huge citations and moderate impact?
November 8, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
November 7, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
People are lazy--except when they're watching other people work hard.

My student Emily Zohar just published her first first-authored paper, and it reveals something surprising about effort and social norms. /1

osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
November 5, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
"only about 5% of the variance in personality can be
predicted from digital footprints, and personality‐tailored messages show negligible effects on behavior... When design and evaluation flaws are controlled, the combined end‐to‐end effectiveness of psychological targeting approaches zero."
The (In)Effectiveness of Psychological Targeting: A Meta‐Analytic Review
The use of psychological targeting—employing machine learning to predict consumer personality from digital footprints and subsequently tailoring persuasive messages—has emerged as a controversial yet...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
To be honest? Thank god.

Because if advertisers can target on personality, this will be what it looks like (from 'Careless People')
October 31, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Has conscientiousness really been in a free fall since 2014? A question that made us blog again: Has conscientiousness really been in a free fall since 2014?*
floggingpvalues.blog/2025/10/22/h...
Has conscientiousness really been in a free fall since 2014?*
Brent W. RobertsA.J. WrightLena RoemerCavan Bonner Recently Burn-Murdoch reported in the Financial Times (FT) that since 2014 conscientiousness was in a “free fall” in younger p…
floggingpvalues.blog
October 22, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Preprint led by Salvador Vargas (on the job market!), with Chadly Stern, on stereotypes linking race & social class. We find a mean-level White–rich/Black–poor stereotype; the stereotype is strongest among third-group participants; and likely explained by social sampling: osf.io/preprints/ps...
October 16, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Major win for our field: finally a large, replicable effect.
Results of the replication are in!

Chocolate is more desirable than poop:

Cohen's d_rm = 6.20, 95%CI [5.63, 6.78]

N = 486, two single item 1-7 Likert scales of desirability.

w/
@jamiecummins.bsky.social
Make an effect size prediction!

@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)

Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
October 15, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
The GSS asked the same people about their childhood income rank three different times. 56% changed their answer, even though what was trying to be measured couldn’t change! We dig into this in a new article at @socialindicators.bsky.social. 



doi.org/10.1007/s112...

🧵👇 (1/5)
Growing up Different(ly than Last Time We Asked): Social Status and Changing Reports of Childhood Income Rank - Social Indicators Research
How we remember our past can be shaped by the realities of our present. This study examines how changes to present circumstances influence retrospective reports of family income rank at age 16. While retrospective survey data can be used to assess the long-term effects of childhood conditions, present-day circumstances may “anchor” memories, causing shifts in how individuals recall and report past experiences. Using panel data from the 2006–2014 General Social Surveys (8,602 observations from 2,883 individuals in the United States), we analyze how changes in objective and subjective indicators of current social status—income, financial satisfaction, and perceived income relative to others—are associated with changes in reports of childhood income rank, and how this varies by sex and race/ethnicity. Fixed-effects models reveal no significant association between changes in income and in childhood income rank. However, changes in subjective measures of social status show contrasting effects, as increases in current financial satisfaction are associated with decreases in childhood income rank, but increases in current perceived relative income are associated with increases in childhood income rank. We argue these opposing effects follow from theories of anchoring in recall bias. We further find these effects are stronger among males but are consistent across racial/ethnic groups. This demographic heterogeneity suggests that recall bias is not evenly distributed across the population and has important implications for how different groups perceive their own pasts. Our findings further highlight the malleability of retrospective perceptions and their sensitivity to current social conditions, offering methodological insights into survey reliability and recall bias.
doi.org
October 10, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
📣 Calling 2nd-year grad students and their mentors:

You just abruptly lost the ability to apply for the NSF grad research fellowship.

Join ~900 others (and growing!) in signing @omfishient.bsky.social's petition to reverse that.

[Or reshare this petition if you're not directly impacted]
Petition to NSF to Restore Eligibility for the 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program Competition
laurenkuehne.github.io
October 1, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Now on CRAN, ggdiagram is a #ggplot2 extension that draws diagrams programmatically in #Rstats. Allows for precise control in how objects, labels, and equations are placed in relation to each other.
wjschne.github.io/ggdiagram/ar...
August 20, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
🧠🧠🧠 PsyArXiv needs you! Please sign up to join our moderator team. First cohort is getting trained on next Monday, with more trainings to come. Easy way to give back to this crucial community resource. Students, postdocs, faculty, all welcome - come one and all!
August 15, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Please, I beg everyone panicking about “kids these days” to just display the full scale on the y-axis of their (not so) terrifying charts. Oh wait, maybe that story would not sell 🤔 mikemales.substack.com/p/how-to-go-...
How to go viral with dire-sounding – but phony – “statistical trends”
Those bent on creating anti-internet panics keep rigging their presentations.
mikemales.substack.com
August 12, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Do you need to suffer in order to build character? No: in a sample of 682 youth, about 80% of the youth who increased in effortful control or emotional stability (>/= 1/5th of a SD) were not exposed to high levels of (observer-rated) adversity.
Growth Following Adversity is Rare: Evidence from a Multi-Informant Longitudinal Study of Children and Adolescents: https://osf.io/93nxb
June 21, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Paper alert by @cavanvbonner.bsky.social looking at adversity and growth in self-regulatory dispositions. The tl;dr--no, adversity does not lead to growth in either self-reported or parent observed measures of effortful control or emotional stability. www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/zz0z1... 1/
www.dropbox.com
June 21, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Now officially out with nice formatting and all 🥳 "Thinking clearly about age, period, and cohort effects" -- a gentle introduction to the age-period-cohort problem and how to "solve" it through various types of assumptions.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
June 6, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
🚨New paper!🚨

Meta-analysis on 4M p-values across 240k psych articles: How has psychology changed since the replication crisis began? How is replicability linked to citations, impact factor, and university prestige? 🧵

Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Interactive: pbogdan.com/meganal
April 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Recommend both this and @dingdingpeng.the100.ci 's osf.io/preprints/ps... (which I had already read) whatever field you're working on. This is something critical to e.g. even the most bread-and-butter cases of longitudinal customer behavior analysis.
If you're interested in seeing how identification assumptions can change the results from Age-Period-Cohort models of personality trait data, then check out our new pre-print led by @roemerle.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/os...
May 27, 2025 at 4:52 PM
If you're interested in seeing how identification assumptions can change the results from Age-Period-Cohort models of personality trait data, then check out our new pre-print led by @roemerle.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/os...
May 27, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
So excited! A donor has made The Portable Mentor totally and completely FREE for anyone!!!!!! No royalties, no sign up, just download any/all of the 30 chapters of professional development advice!!! HOORAY!!!!! Equal access for everyone!!!!

Check out the ToC!
www.cambridge.org/core/books/p...
The Portable Mentor
Cambridge Core - Psychiatry - The Portable Mentor
www.cambridge.org
December 13, 2024 at 6:26 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
Does effort make life more meaningful? Was Sisyphus living the dream? In our new paper (now accepted in Cognition!), across 6 studies with nearly 3,000 participants, we found that more effortful tasks feel more meaningful 🧵
January 13, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Reposted by Cavan Bonner
The @esmrepository.bsky.social blog is back! In our first post of 2025, I look back at 2024 for the ESM Item Repository and give some sneak peeks about where we're going this year: esmitemrepositoryinfo.com/blog-posts#O... #OpenScience #Measurement #ExperienceSamplingMethod
Blog posts | ESM Item Repository
esmitemrepositoryinfo.com
January 13, 2025 at 6:54 PM