Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
Catastrophe / climate risk / data viz at OAK Re
Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading
Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS.
Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket
Own opinions etc. etc.
Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading
Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS.
Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket
Own opinions etc. etc.
Pinned
Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
· Nov 13
I think I was supposed to introduce myself on Bluesky ages ago. So here's an introduction. Hello!
Such a telling graph on relative frequency of record highs/low: a fitting riposte to the "look it's cold - so much for global warming" crew.
November 12, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Such a telling graph on relative frequency of record highs/low: a fitting riposte to the "look it's cold - so much for global warming" crew.
The US insured losses will end up zero, but still some interesting things to emerge from 2025 hurricane season. Around 35% of NHC analyses as a hurricane were Cat 4 or 5. Am sure present-day numbers are partly influenced by more recon flights, but it's still food for thought.
November 12, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The US insured losses will end up zero, but still some interesting things to emerge from 2025 hurricane season. Around 35% of NHC analyses as a hurricane were Cat 4 or 5. Am sure present-day numbers are partly influenced by more recon flights, but it's still food for thought.
Reposted by Richard Dixon
Looking for a PhD in climate science?
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
PhD Redeveloping Central England Temperature: Modernising a Historic Climate Series, CASE project with Met Office (OSBORNT_U26SCI) 2026/27 | UEA
PhD Redeveloping Central England Temperature: Modernising a Historic Climate Series, CASE project with Met Office (OSBORNT_U26SCI) 2026/27 | UEA
www.uea.ac.uk
November 12, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Looking for a PhD in climate science?
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
And looking at climatologically - for London at least - we're reaching the sort of values that we reached at the end of the year in the 1980s by mid-July in the 2020s...
November 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM
And looking at climatologically - for London at least - we're reaching the sort of values that we reached at the end of the year in the 1980s by mid-July in the 2020s...
Wondered how warm it was this year from a "cumulative excess temperature above 20c" standpoint. Turns out 3rd warmest in London since 1970. Left: how uncannily close 2025 and 1976 traces are! Right: UK-wide: a lot of E/SE Eng was ranked top 3 year for this value, most of Eng & Wales top 10 ranked.
November 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Wondered how warm it was this year from a "cumulative excess temperature above 20c" standpoint. Turns out 3rd warmest in London since 1970. Left: how uncannily close 2025 and 1976 traces are! Right: UK-wide: a lot of E/SE Eng was ranked top 3 year for this value, most of Eng & Wales top 10 ranked.
Only one taking a chance...
October 28, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Only one taking a chance...
Current central pressure of Melissa at 892mb tied with the Labor Day hurricane ahead of landfall must be peak weathernerd material.
October 28, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Current central pressure of Melissa at 892mb tied with the Labor Day hurricane ahead of landfall must be peak weathernerd material.
Another hot take: put 6 or 7 things on here that I wondered might provoke a bit of discussion. Bit of interest, but not a single comment. One thing I'll say about Twitter is that people interacted. When did talking about stuff die? Or it could just be that most of my followers are bots...
October 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Another hot take: put 6 or 7 things on here that I wondered might provoke a bit of discussion. Bit of interest, but not a single comment. One thing I'll say about Twitter is that people interacted. When did talking about stuff die? Or it could just be that most of my followers are bots...
Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.
October 27, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.
Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...
October 27, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...
Reposted by Richard Dixon
This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
October 27, 2025 at 4:26 PM
This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
After this year I was beginning to think that Bluesky wasn't the place for pre- and post-event hurricane detail. I stand corrected, my feed is awash !
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
October 27, 2025 at 2:56 PM
After this year I was beginning to think that Bluesky wasn't the place for pre- and post-event hurricane detail. I stand corrected, my feed is awash !
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
October 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...
October 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...
Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.
October 26, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.
I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.
October 25, 2025 at 10:00 AM
I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.
Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)
October 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)
A discussion with a photographer friend in Deal trying to snap Deal Pier in strong winds and very high tide said that Benjamin was nothing on the sea on 26 Feb 2024 in a strong easterly. Wasn't a named storm, but got me thinking about what wind direction causes strongest winds in the UK:
October 24, 2025 at 10:16 PM
A discussion with a photographer friend in Deal trying to snap Deal Pier in strong winds and very high tide said that Benjamin was nothing on the sea on 26 Feb 2024 in a strong easterly. Wasn't a named storm, but got me thinking about what wind direction causes strongest winds in the UK:
I sense this is less & less an outlet for discussion, but I'll try. I did a chart to show the farce of how Reform gets a greater % of vote where immigration is lower (and thus higher % of British). The added chilling note is how much the % of that vote increased in the two by-elections in 2025.
October 24, 2025 at 4:21 PM
I sense this is less & less an outlet for discussion, but I'll try. I did a chart to show the farce of how Reform gets a greater % of vote where immigration is lower (and thus higher % of British). The added chilling note is how much the % of that vote increased in the two by-elections in 2025.
The old devil-in-the-detail again. Storm #Benjamin yesterday in Met Office hi-res model looked pretty feisy for my part of far East Kent on the coast: main pressure gradient potentially looking like it's shifted further east in this morning's forecast and less windy (but still blowy) for us.
October 23, 2025 at 8:05 AM
The old devil-in-the-detail again. Storm #Benjamin yesterday in Met Office hi-res model looked pretty feisy for my part of far East Kent on the coast: main pressure gradient potentially looking like it's shifted further east in this morning's forecast and less windy (but still blowy) for us.
Hoping someone might be able to help: am doing a regular daily download of ERA5 data: is the data nearly always staggered by about 5 days in terms of most recent date or is there variability around this number depending over time (or with different dataset types (single/pressure levels))? Thanks!
October 22, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Hoping someone might be able to help: am doing a regular daily download of ERA5 data: is the data nearly always staggered by about 5 days in terms of most recent date or is there variability around this number depending over time (or with different dataset types (single/pressure levels))? Thanks!
Doesn't have a name (yet?) I think but if the AROME model is up to scratch it looks quite feisty in the channel first thing tomorrow...
October 22, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Doesn't have a name (yet?) I think but if the AROME model is up to scratch it looks quite feisty in the channel first thing tomorrow...
Pardon the language but: different winter, same sh1t.
October 17, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Pardon the language but: different winter, same sh1t.
Ah - so there's the hurricane season: remnants of Humberto doing the extra-tropical reintensification thing over the UK and Ireland. This is the ensemble maximum gust at 1am Saturday.
September 30, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Ah - so there's the hurricane season: remnants of Humberto doing the extra-tropical reintensification thing over the UK and Ireland. This is the ensemble maximum gust at 1am Saturday.
Meteorology is the enemy of health, seemingly...
September 30, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Meteorology is the enemy of health, seemingly...