In defense of diplomas:

With 40-years old data, Katz & Murphy predicted that the skill premium in wages would grow 3 percent per year minus any movement down the demand curve due to increased skills in the workforce. 3 percent is a lot; rarely since WWII has skill accumulated enough to reduce...1/3

Landsburg has this as Exhibit 15.11. Here are McCloskey and Pashigian. But the other dozen texts I know don't have it.
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Short and sweet from Cass Sunstein.
casssunstein.substack.com/p/a-note-on-...

The prediction was based on anticipated regulatory activity, the costs of which proved to be unfairly distributed. Might that be why the 2024 voting patterns varied by household income?

Here is an interesting article that looks at it on a per capita basis. Pretty close to the -5.0% we predicted in 2020.
www.wsj.com/opinion/nobe...