Cameron Rye
@cameronrye.bsky.social
Catastrophe Research & Innovation @ WTW Research Network. PhD in Glaciology. Opinions my own.
An interesting analysis of last year's temperature record. Like many other groups, in our 2024 nat cat review we said exceedinging 1.5C last year doesn't mean we breachd the Paris agreement. But this paper definitely makes you think again (if you trust the models). www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold - Nature Climate Change
The 12 months before July 2024 were more than 1.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. Using climate models, the author shows that the first year that exceeds 1.5 °C of warming most probably al...
www.nature.com
February 10, 2025 at 8:46 PM
An interesting analysis of last year's temperature record. Like many other groups, in our 2024 nat cat review we said exceedinging 1.5C last year doesn't mean we breachd the Paris agreement. But this paper definitely makes you think again (if you trust the models). www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Cameron Rye
Love this concept - in insurance we refer to it as normative risk management or reverse stress testing. Decide what constitutes intolerable risk and back into changes that would get you there bsky.app/profile/kell...
People need to plan for climate risks. The research is there, but the usability for stakeholders can be limited. We introduce the reversal of the impact chain approach for actionable climate information that allows linking local risk levels directly to GHG emission. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information - Nature Geoscience
Providing actionable climate information requires an end-user focused approach that links specific local climate risk thresholds with global emissions pathways.
www.nature.com
January 3, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Love this concept - in insurance we refer to it as normative risk management or reverse stress testing. Decide what constitutes intolerable risk and back into changes that would get you there bsky.app/profile/kell...
Reposted by Cameron Rye
We have a new paper out in @science.org today, led by Helge Goessling from #AWI:
The recent global temperature surge in 2023 was intensified by a record-low planetary #albedo
👉 doi.org/10.1126/scie... @thomasjung.bsky.social @ecmwf.bsky.social
This is what we found (🧵1/8)
The recent global temperature surge in 2023 was intensified by a record-low planetary #albedo
👉 doi.org/10.1126/scie... @thomasjung.bsky.social @ecmwf.bsky.social
This is what we found (🧵1/8)
Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthr...
doi.org
December 5, 2024 at 7:18 PM
We have a new paper out in @science.org today, led by Helge Goessling from #AWI:
The recent global temperature surge in 2023 was intensified by a record-low planetary #albedo
👉 doi.org/10.1126/scie... @thomasjung.bsky.social @ecmwf.bsky.social
This is what we found (🧵1/8)
The recent global temperature surge in 2023 was intensified by a record-low planetary #albedo
👉 doi.org/10.1126/scie... @thomasjung.bsky.social @ecmwf.bsky.social
This is what we found (🧵1/8)
As someone that spends a lot of time attending academic/industry events related to extreme weather, I'm not so familiar with what's going on in the Earth sciences world. Do any earthquake people have any recommendations for events to attend?
November 27, 2024 at 8:16 PM
As someone that spends a lot of time attending academic/industry events related to extreme weather, I'm not so familiar with what's going on in the Earth sciences world. Do any earthquake people have any recommendations for events to attend?
@jessboyd.bsky.social and I have written about a new NOAA-led study on increasing North Atlantic hurricane variability and its implications for insurance cat model adjustments. Co-author Sang-Ki shared our article below—also check out his first post for the original paper!
November 19, 2024 at 10:12 PM
@jessboyd.bsky.social and I have written about a new NOAA-led study on increasing North Atlantic hurricane variability and its implications for insurance cat model adjustments. Co-author Sang-Ki shared our article below—also check out his first post for the original paper!
Reposted by Cameron Rye
Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons: 🌊🧪 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
November 15, 2024 at 8:22 PM
Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons: 🌊🧪 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Cameron Rye
Hello, I'm new here! I'm a natural hazard researcher at WTW Research Network working to better understand and quantify present-day and future natural catastrophe risk for the (re)insurance industry.
November 18, 2024 at 12:21 PM
Hello, I'm new here! I'm a natural hazard researcher at WTW Research Network working to better understand and quantify present-day and future natural catastrophe risk for the (re)insurance industry.
Reposted by Cameron Rye
The "shape" of the 2024 hurricane season is a funny one. It got off to a spectacular start, had a sleepy middle, and then it was a sprint to the finish line. This plot shows the difference between the cumulative ACE index (a measure of hurricane activity) for 2024 compared to the 1991-2020 average.
November 19, 2024 at 9:19 AM
The "shape" of the 2024 hurricane season is a funny one. It got off to a spectacular start, had a sleepy middle, and then it was a sprint to the finish line. This plot shows the difference between the cumulative ACE index (a measure of hurricane activity) for 2024 compared to the 1991-2020 average.
Earlier this year, we wrote about using Large Language Models for reinsurance scenario narratives. We predicted AI may soon be able generate synthetic hazard data too. With OpenAI's new o1-preview model released yesterday, we're getting closer! It produce this scenario for Miami.
September 13, 2024 at 10:45 AM
Earlier this year, we wrote about using Large Language Models for reinsurance scenario narratives. We predicted AI may soon be able generate synthetic hazard data too. With OpenAI's new o1-preview model released yesterday, we're getting closer! It produce this scenario for Miami.
Reposted by Cameron Rye
We’ve been sitting on this news for sometime, so I’m so excited WTW has announced our new research partnership with Prof Erica Thompson!
‘Escape From Model Land’ is such a great book and I can’t wait to learn from Erica as she turns her attention to Cat Models! www.wtwco.com/en-gb/news/2...
‘Escape From Model Land’ is such a great book and I can’t wait to learn from Erica as she turns her attention to Cat Models! www.wtwco.com/en-gb/news/2...
WTW Research Network announces new mathematical modelling collaboration with the London Mathematical Laboratory
New agreement will inform the use of mathematical modelling for insurance, to help mitigate natural catastrophe risk
www.wtwco.com
February 14, 2024 at 4:50 PM
We’ve been sitting on this news for sometime, so I’m so excited WTW has announced our new research partnership with Prof Erica Thompson!
‘Escape From Model Land’ is such a great book and I can’t wait to learn from Erica as she turns her attention to Cat Models! www.wtwco.com/en-gb/news/2...
‘Escape From Model Land’ is such a great book and I can’t wait to learn from Erica as she turns her attention to Cat Models! www.wtwco.com/en-gb/news/2...