Brian Schaffner
@bfschaffner.bsky.social
Political scientist ~ Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies at Tufts ~ CES Whisperer ~ #COYS #GoDawgs
the outcome of the 2024 election increased confidence in U.S. elections among Trump voters, but they still lagged behind Harris voters...newest @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/many-tr...
August 29, 2025 at 5:02 PM
the outcome of the 2024 election increased confidence in U.S. elections among Trump voters, but they still lagged behind Harris voters...newest @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/many-tr...
in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler, we use vote validated CES data to show that nonvoters preferred Trump over Harris for president but Dems over Reps in down ballot races goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
August 27, 2025 at 1:31 PM
in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler, we use vote validated CES data to show that nonvoters preferred Trump over Harris for president but Dems over Reps in down ballot races goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...
the 2024 election was also a watershed moment among non-voters who, for the first time since we've been collecting data preferred the republican nominee over the democrat. this means increasing turnout would likely have made Trump's victory bigger.
August 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
the 2024 election was also a watershed moment among non-voters who, for the first time since we've been collecting data preferred the republican nominee over the democrat. this means increasing turnout would likely have made Trump's victory bigger.
it is especially striking to see how non-religious the Democratic Party has become over the past two decades
August 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
it is especially striking to see how non-religious the Democratic Party has become over the past two decades
the trends when it comes to religion are especially notable. non-evangelical vote preferences have remained stable over time, but democrats continue to lose vote share among evangelicals, especially black and hispanic evangelicals
August 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
the trends when it comes to religion are especially notable. non-evangelical vote preferences have remained stable over time, but democrats continue to lose vote share among evangelicals, especially black and hispanic evangelicals
we see significant shifts away from the democrats among both black and hispanic voters
for black voters, these shifts came particularly among born again christians and men
among Hispanic voters, the rightward shift was mostly isolated to those living in urban areas
for black voters, these shifts came particularly among born again christians and men
among Hispanic voters, the rightward shift was mostly isolated to those living in urban areas
August 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
we see significant shifts away from the democrats among both black and hispanic voters
for black voters, these shifts came particularly among born again christians and men
among Hispanic voters, the rightward shift was mostly isolated to those living in urban areas
for black voters, these shifts came particularly among born again christians and men
among Hispanic voters, the rightward shift was mostly isolated to those living in urban areas
in 2008, Conservative Jews voted similarly to Reform/Reconstructionist Jews but by 2024 there was more than a 20-point gap between those two groups
July 15, 2025 at 6:10 PM
in 2008, Conservative Jews voted similarly to Reform/Reconstructionist Jews but by 2024 there was more than a 20-point gap between those two groups
another Cooperative Election Study conference in the books! new mountain resort, same great vibes! we had a special time honoring Steve Ansolabehere who is stepping down from his leadership role, 20 years after founding this incredible innovative project that has done so much for the discipline.
June 4, 2025 at 1:59 PM
another Cooperative Election Study conference in the books! new mountain resort, same great vibes! we had a special time honoring Steve Ansolabehere who is stepping down from his leadership role, 20 years after founding this incredible innovative project that has done so much for the discipline.
most notably, our experiment shows that when you ask Americans about their overall mood rather than their mental health, the gap between conservatives and liberals vanishes
May 1, 2025 at 2:04 PM
most notably, our experiment shows that when you ask Americans about their overall mood rather than their mental health, the gap between conservatives and liberals vanishes
another great year of
Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books and a great chance to honor graduating seniors. really gonna miss this group!
Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books and a great chance to honor graduating seniors. really gonna miss this group!
April 30, 2025 at 7:17 PM
another great year of
Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books and a great chance to honor graduating seniors. really gonna miss this group!
Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books and a great chance to honor graduating seniors. really gonna miss this group!
and these gaps only get bigger when you look at younger Democrats
April 4, 2025 at 2:23 PM
and these gaps only get bigger when you look at younger Democrats
I'm not going to say that this is definitely why Democrats lost vote share among Black and Hispanic voters in 2024, but I will say that the coalition of (mostly secular) white Democrats with (mostly religious) Black and Hispanic Democrats definitely has some fault lines
April 4, 2025 at 2:22 PM
I'm not going to say that this is definitely why Democrats lost vote share among Black and Hispanic voters in 2024, but I will say that the coalition of (mostly secular) white Democrats with (mostly religious) Black and Hispanic Democrats definitely has some fault lines
Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/
April 3, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/
clear evidence in the CES that ideology is beginning to overcome Dem party loyalty among black and hispanic voters:
2016 to 2024 swing in Dem support:
conservative black voters: 80% -> 51%
moderate hispanic voters: 79% -> 60%
conservative hispanic voters: 30% -> 9%
2016 to 2024 swing in Dem support:
conservative black voters: 80% -> 51%
moderate hispanic voters: 79% -> 60%
conservative hispanic voters: 30% -> 9%
April 3, 2025 at 1:59 PM
clear evidence in the CES that ideology is beginning to overcome Dem party loyalty among black and hispanic voters:
2016 to 2024 swing in Dem support:
conservative black voters: 80% -> 51%
moderate hispanic voters: 79% -> 60%
conservative hispanic voters: 30% -> 9%
2016 to 2024 swing in Dem support:
conservative black voters: 80% -> 51%
moderate hispanic voters: 79% -> 60%
conservative hispanic voters: 30% -> 9%
the CES vote trends app has been updated with 2024 data! explore how a wide variety of different groups voted in 2024 and compare to previous elections.
something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
April 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
the CES vote trends app has been updated with 2024 data! explore how a wide variety of different groups voted in 2024 and compare to previous elections.
something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
in our @goodauth.bsky.social post we extend this analysis to the 2018 midterms and show that people punished Republican House candidates in 2018 when they had suffered a job loss during the previous year ... given the current economic uncertainty, things could go poorly for the GOP in 2026
March 20, 2025 at 6:50 PM
in our @goodauth.bsky.social post we extend this analysis to the 2018 midterms and show that people punished Republican House candidates in 2018 when they had suffered a job loss during the previous year ... given the current economic uncertainty, things could go poorly for the GOP in 2026
however, even co-partisans will vote against their incumbent president when the personal economic shock is significant enough. in both 2020 and 2024, people who suffered a job loss or pay cut in the year before the election voted against the incumbent president, even when they shared the same party
March 20, 2025 at 6:50 PM
however, even co-partisans will vote against their incumbent president when the personal economic shock is significant enough. in both 2020 and 2024, people who suffered a job loss or pay cut in the year before the election voted against the incumbent president, even when they shared the same party
we look at the extent to which having these economic vulnerabilities lead voters to vote against the incumbent president in both 2020 and 2024. controlling for lots of factors, we find that independents are particularly sensitive, with more vulnerability leading to more anti-incumbent voting
March 20, 2025 at 6:50 PM
we look at the extent to which having these economic vulnerabilities lead voters to vote against the incumbent president in both 2020 and 2024. controlling for lots of factors, we find that independents are particularly sensitive, with more vulnerability leading to more anti-incumbent voting
one of the nice things about the CES is that we ask a bunch of questions that go beyond income to get at an individual's discrete economic circumstances. here are the items we use in our article
March 20, 2025 at 6:50 PM
one of the nice things about the CES is that we ask a bunch of questions that go beyond income to get at an individual's discrete economic circumstances. here are the items we use in our article
i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...
February 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...
another semester of the Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books with our traditional end of term lunch!
December 13, 2024 at 2:33 PM
another semester of the Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books with our traditional end of term lunch!
polls missed big in 2016, but pollsters spent the past 8 years adapting to those misses and these adjustments worked pretty well in 2024. my new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/pollste...
November 26, 2024 at 6:22 PM
polls missed big in 2016, but pollsters spent the past 8 years adapting to those misses and these adjustments worked pretty well in 2024. my new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/pollste...
just a reminder that the CES website has a host of shiny app tools for quickly analyzing data on various topics
tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...
tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...
October 16, 2024 at 3:51 PM
just a reminder that the CES website has a host of shiny app tools for quickly analyzing data on various topics
tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...
tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...
when we try to unpack how these matter for the margins polls are reporting, we find that weighting to education and community type (rural/suburban/urban) does the most to shrink Harris's margin over Trump, while weighting to 2020 vote or party affiliation appears to matter less
October 2, 2024 at 1:14 PM
when we try to unpack how these matter for the margins polls are reporting, we find that weighting to education and community type (rural/suburban/urban) does the most to shrink Harris's margin over Trump, while weighting to 2020 vote or party affiliation appears to matter less
weighting to education is now almost as common as weighting to age, race, and gender.
more notably, about two-thirds of national polls are weighting to either 2020 vote or party affiliation
more notably, about two-thirds of national polls are weighting to either 2020 vote or party affiliation
October 2, 2024 at 1:12 PM
weighting to education is now almost as common as weighting to age, race, and gender.
more notably, about two-thirds of national polls are weighting to either 2020 vote or party affiliation
more notably, about two-thirds of national polls are weighting to either 2020 vote or party affiliation