Bergerball
@bergerball.com
Baseball and football analytics with a unique spin. Home of the Football DNA and the Pitcher/Batter DNA systems.
Haven't posted much lately; real job trumps side project every time.
But wanted to take a victory lap on Jo Adell. Never a doubt!
But wanted to take a victory lap on Jo Adell. Never a doubt!
September 4, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Haven't posted much lately; real job trumps side project every time.
But wanted to take a victory lap on Jo Adell. Never a doubt!
But wanted to take a victory lap on Jo Adell. Never a doubt!
The best pitch-for-pitch pitcher right now is Cade Smith of the #Guardians. His fastball has +4 swinging strikes against both hands, but what makes him special is control. He has -5 called balls against righties and a -8 against lefties. He is pounding the zone and you can't touch it. #MLB
July 14, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The best pitch-for-pitch pitcher right now is Cade Smith of the #Guardians. His fastball has +4 swinging strikes against both hands, but what makes him special is control. He has -5 called balls against righties and a -8 against lefties. He is pounding the zone and you can't touch it. #MLB
I'm all-in on MacKenzie Gore. Against lefties he has an overpowering fastball with +2.8 swinging strikes (per 100 pitches). Rarely throws offspeed, so don't read much into that column. Against righties he has two good pitches and limits hard and medium contact. A Top-10 starter. #MLB
July 14, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I'm all-in on MacKenzie Gore. Against lefties he has an overpowering fastball with +2.8 swinging strikes (per 100 pitches). Rarely throws offspeed, so don't read much into that column. Against righties he has two good pitches and limits hard and medium contact. A Top-10 starter. #MLB
The Kyle Stowers breakout looks legit to me. Excellent hard and medium contact against righties. Much more pedestrian against lefties (offspeed is small sample), but even there, he has good power against lefty fastballs. #MLB
July 14, 2025 at 3:36 PM
The Kyle Stowers breakout looks legit to me. Excellent hard and medium contact against righties. Much more pedestrian against lefties (offspeed is small sample), but even there, he has good power against lefty fastballs. #MLB
Cal Raleigh is the story of the first half. My Batter DNA projections for his wRC+ have been in the 120's to 150's all season and currently sit at 145. So, I think his 178 wRC+ will come down, but this is a legit MVP-level hitter. Uses foul balls as a weapon to wait on something to crush. #MLB
July 14, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Cal Raleigh is the story of the first half. My Batter DNA projections for his wRC+ have been in the 120's to 150's all season and currently sit at 145. So, I think his 178 wRC+ will come down, but this is a legit MVP-level hitter. Uses foul balls as a weapon to wait on something to crush. #MLB
Pitcher/Batter DNA projections are updated on the site:
bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
Baseball Projections
Pitcher DNA and Batter DNA Player Projections Last update: 7-14-2025 For details on how the Pitcher and Batter DNA systems work, check out the explainer here. For FAQs on these fantasy projections,…
bergerball.com
July 14, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Pitcher/Batter DNA projections are updated on the site:
bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
James Wood looks like the real deal. Extremely patient profile -- above average called balls and called strikes across the board. Good power on fastballs against lefties and secondary pitches against righties. A 132 wRC+ projection for a 22-year-old is exciting. #MLB #Nationals
June 6, 2025 at 2:33 PM
James Wood looks like the real deal. Extremely patient profile -- above average called balls and called strikes across the board. Good power on fastballs against lefties and secondary pitches against righties. A 132 wRC+ projection for a 22-year-old is exciting. #MLB #Nationals
Jasson Dominguez is starting to look like the real deal. Merely average against lefties, but hits well against righties due to better power. Above average called balls on all six pitch buckets. Good contact skills, especially against righty fastballs. Encouraging Batter DNA for a 22-year-old. #MLB
May 30, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Jasson Dominguez is starting to look like the real deal. Merely average against lefties, but hits well against righties due to better power. Above average called balls on all six pitch buckets. Good contact skills, especially against righty fastballs. Encouraging Batter DNA for a 22-year-old. #MLB
I'm buying (extremely) low on Sandy Alcantara. His Pitcher DNA shows good control on all six pitch buckets and above average swinging strikes on 5/6. He is giving up far too many hard and medium BIP right now. I would bet on an ERA in the 4's going forward... if he doesn't get sent down. #MLB
May 30, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I'm buying (extremely) low on Sandy Alcantara. His Pitcher DNA shows good control on all six pitch buckets and above average swinging strikes on 5/6. He is giving up far too many hard and medium BIP right now. I would bet on an ERA in the 4's going forward... if he doesn't get sent down. #MLB
Batter DNA is buying the new Trent Grisham. He's showing elite patience and contact skills. Hits righties much better than lefties, but the overall picture is excellent. Whatever changes the #Yankees made are working. Likely the league will adjust somewhat, but this is a legit breakout. #MLB
May 27, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Batter DNA is skeptical of the Pete Crow-Armstrong breakout. Hits righties well, but below average against lefties. Below average called balls on 5/6 pitch buckets. Below average hard hit rate on 5/6. Above average swinging strikes on 5/6. I wouldn't bet on a wRC+ in the 140's. #MLB #Cubs
May 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Ryan McMahon is an interesting case. He currently has a 83 wRC+, but Batter DNA sees a very good hitter. Excellent eye, good hard hit rates (12% barrel rate!), and good contact, especially against righties. I love a projection that will either look brilliant or horrible a month from now. #MLB
May 27, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Ryan McMahon is an interesting case. He currently has a 83 wRC+, but Batter DNA sees a very good hitter. Excellent eye, good hard hit rates (12% barrel rate!), and good contact, especially against righties. I love a projection that will either look brilliant or horrible a month from now. #MLB
Matt Carpenter calls it a career. Excellent player for a long time and then had one of the best "dead cat bounce" seasons of all time.
wRC+ by year:
124
146
117
140
136
124
140
96
85
68
*216*
85
95
#MLB #Cardinals
wRC+ by year:
124
146
117
140
136
124
140
96
85
68
*216*
85
95
#MLB #Cardinals
May 14, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Matt Carpenter calls it a career. Excellent player for a long time and then had one of the best "dead cat bounce" seasons of all time.
wRC+ by year:
124
146
117
140
136
124
140
96
85
68
*216*
85
95
#MLB #Cardinals
wRC+ by year:
124
146
117
140
136
124
140
96
85
68
*216*
85
95
#MLB #Cardinals
Cole Ragans is elite, but maybe not in the way you would expect. Pitcher DNA sees him as closer-level against righties, but league average against lefties -- one of the largest lefty/righty gaps in baseball. Strange as it sounds, teams might consider loading up lefties against him. #MLB #Royals
May 12, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Simeon Woods Richardson might be primed for a breakout. Above average control on all six pitch buckets and above average swinging strikes on 5/6. That type of profile is hard to come by. Hard hit rate is the only thing preventing him from being an All-Star caliber SP. Still only 24. #MLB #Twins
May 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Jordan Walker is struggling, but Batter DNA loves him. Above average medium balls in play on 5/6 pitch buckets. Good contact skills, especially against fastballs. Could use some more hard hit balls, but this is a solid profile that should result in above average results. #MLB #Cardinals
May 12, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Jordan Walker is struggling, but Batter DNA loves him. Above average medium balls in play on 5/6 pitch buckets. Good contact skills, especially against fastballs. Could use some more hard hit balls, but this is a solid profile that should result in above average results. #MLB #Cardinals
Shohei Ohtani is on another level right now. His current wRC+ projection against righties (193!) and blend (177) are both literally off my chart. Above average hard hit rate on all six pitch buckets, and not by a little bit: +3's are extremely rare and he's got a few of them. Unreal. #MLB #Dodgers
May 12, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Just updated the Pitcher DNA & Batter DNA ROS projections on the site. #MLB bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
Baseball Projections
Pitcher DNA and Batter DNA Player Projections Last update: 5-12-2025 For details on how the Pitcher and Batter DNA systems work, check out the explainer here. For FAQs on these fantasy projections,…
bergerball.com
May 12, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Just updated the Pitcher DNA & Batter DNA ROS projections on the site. #MLB bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
