Assuming Wilders' PVV is excluded, the most obvious coalition is a centre coalition of GL/PvdA-D66-CDA-VVD

But VVD says it excludes a coalition with GL/PvdA (and PVV)

This may give centre-parties CU and Volt a pivotal role in pulling the D66-CDA tandem to the right (VVD) or the left (GL/PvdA)

Also, all parties that formed the government last year (PVV, VVD, NSC & BBB) are likely to loose seats; from a combined majority of 88/150 seats to less than 50

So what may new majority coalitions look like?

2/3

In short, the problem here is not that Signal ‘chose’ to run on AWS. The problem is the concentration of power in the infrastructure space that means there isn’t really another choice: the entire stack, practically speaking, is owned by 3-4 players. 11/

Just to be clear, this is not about the current government.
It is about a rather steady trend of party system fragmentation, i.e. big parties getting smaller and the number of small parties increasing

I was struck by the defensive responses to Hix’s initial skeet

To have a more open conversation I asked: How much party fragmentation can we afford in NL?

Everyone seems to assume I advocated a threshold (I did not)

No one has really addressed my question

Sure, but that concerns primarily the Senate (which merits a separate discussion)

That is one way to read recent history.
Just as well can one argue that BBB has been part of the problem in a non-performing government.
And that Rutte never had a better performing cabinet than the Rutte II VVD-PvdA combi (while it lasted)
Happy to see more systematic evidence

Again, my question is: how much fragmentation can a party system like NL afford?
I’d be curious for a substantation of the response “no limit”
Simple arithmetic suggests that it complicates the formation of stable majorities- and casual observation of NL politics seems to confirm that

That would have been a fair question about their equivalents in the 1970s.
But it is not just about these parties, but about this👇 landscape that triggered Simon’s original observation
If(!?) small parties are great, you can also have too much of a good thing

It is not about 1 MP or 1 party - although I would not die on a hill for that
What I am asking is: how much fragmentation can a party system like NL afford?