Armine Yalnizyan
@armineyalnizyan.bsky.social
Economist.
Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers
https://atkinsonfoundation.ca/atkinson-fellows/atkinson-fellow-on-the-future-of-workers/
Contributing Columnist for the Toronto Star https://www.thestar.com/
Mostly #cdnecon #CareEconomy #Inequality
Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers
https://atkinsonfoundation.ca/atkinson-fellows/atkinson-fellow-on-the-future-of-workers/
Contributing Columnist for the Toronto Star https://www.thestar.com/
Mostly #cdnecon #CareEconomy #Inequality
Last point, and a warning shot for every government in this country:
Health and social assistance has been a job juggernaut for almost every month in 2025.
Cumulatively it has added 79K jobs so far in 2025, most rapidly through self-employment and private sector growth.
A note on "self-employment"
Health and social assistance has been a job juggernaut for almost every month in 2025.
Cumulatively it has added 79K jobs so far in 2025, most rapidly through self-employment and private sector growth.
A note on "self-employment"
December 5, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Last point, and a warning shot for every government in this country:
Health and social assistance has been a job juggernaut for almost every month in 2025.
Cumulatively it has added 79K jobs so far in 2025, most rapidly through self-employment and private sector growth.
A note on "self-employment"
Health and social assistance has been a job juggernaut for almost every month in 2025.
Cumulatively it has added 79K jobs so far in 2025, most rapidly through self-employment and private sector growth.
A note on "self-employment"
So the real labour market story has become what is happening to the classic "working age cohort": 15-64 year olds.
More are getting hired in health and social assistance, and fewer in [wholesale] and retail trade.
Most likely PT youth jobs easiest to find in hospitality (bars, restaurants, hotels)
More are getting hired in health and social assistance, and fewer in [wholesale] and retail trade.
Most likely PT youth jobs easiest to find in hospitality (bars, restaurants, hotels)
December 5, 2025 at 2:28 PM
So the real labour market story has become what is happening to the classic "working age cohort": 15-64 year olds.
More are getting hired in health and social assistance, and fewer in [wholesale] and retail trade.
Most likely PT youth jobs easiest to find in hospitality (bars, restaurants, hotels)
More are getting hired in health and social assistance, and fewer in [wholesale] and retail trade.
Most likely PT youth jobs easiest to find in hospitality (bars, restaurants, hotels)
Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa
December 2, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa
Today was like living in a snow globe so I obliged the vibe: made a walnut cake and arranged some amaryllis.
December 1, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Today was like living in a snow globe so I obliged the vibe: made a walnut cake and arranged some amaryllis.
Not a contraction but not really growth.
The industrial story is a tell.
Some industries grew, some shrank. Overall industrial contribution (not households, not governments) grew by 0.2%
A stall since the start of the year.
A chart of the 5 fastest and slowest growing industries since January 2025
The industrial story is a tell.
Some industries grew, some shrank. Overall industrial contribution (not households, not governments) grew by 0.2%
A stall since the start of the year.
A chart of the 5 fastest and slowest growing industries since January 2025
November 28, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Not a contraction but not really growth.
The industrial story is a tell.
Some industries grew, some shrank. Overall industrial contribution (not households, not governments) grew by 0.2%
A stall since the start of the year.
A chart of the 5 fastest and slowest growing industries since January 2025
The industrial story is a tell.
Some industries grew, some shrank. Overall industrial contribution (not households, not governments) grew by 0.2%
A stall since the start of the year.
A chart of the 5 fastest and slowest growing industries since January 2025
You can see that internal trade is driven by provinces and territories WITHOUT an industrial base trading with provinces WITH an industrial base.
This month's federal budget aimed to shore up our industrial base. This needed doing, to offset predictable disinvestment by business, esp export-oriented
This month's federal budget aimed to shore up our industrial base. This needed doing, to offset predictable disinvestment by business, esp export-oriented
November 25, 2025 at 5:26 PM
You can see that internal trade is driven by provinces and territories WITHOUT an industrial base trading with provinces WITH an industrial base.
This month's federal budget aimed to shore up our industrial base. This needed doing, to offset predictable disinvestment by business, esp export-oriented
This month's federal budget aimed to shore up our industrial base. This needed doing, to offset predictable disinvestment by business, esp export-oriented
Industrial capacity [manufacturing] drives interprovincial trade. Not wine/beer. Lose a chunk of it; lose a chunk of internal trade.
International trade grew faster than internal trade. If U.S. exports fall, and reduce manufacturing capacity, internal trade can't offset international trade losses.
International trade grew faster than internal trade. If U.S. exports fall, and reduce manufacturing capacity, internal trade can't offset international trade losses.
November 25, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Industrial capacity [manufacturing] drives interprovincial trade. Not wine/beer. Lose a chunk of it; lose a chunk of internal trade.
International trade grew faster than internal trade. If U.S. exports fall, and reduce manufacturing capacity, internal trade can't offset international trade losses.
International trade grew faster than internal trade. If U.S. exports fall, and reduce manufacturing capacity, internal trade can't offset international trade losses.
In Canada, the GDP growth priority since the 1980s has been fueled by export-growth policies.
Since the beginning of this year and Trump's tariff campaign we've maintained overall $ in exports and slightly diversified trade away from the U.S.
You can see how hard this will be to achieve.
Since the beginning of this year and Trump's tariff campaign we've maintained overall $ in exports and slightly diversified trade away from the U.S.
You can see how hard this will be to achieve.
November 25, 2025 at 5:01 PM
In Canada, the GDP growth priority since the 1980s has been fueled by export-growth policies.
Since the beginning of this year and Trump's tariff campaign we've maintained overall $ in exports and slightly diversified trade away from the U.S.
You can see how hard this will be to achieve.
Since the beginning of this year and Trump's tariff campaign we've maintained overall $ in exports and slightly diversified trade away from the U.S.
You can see how hard this will be to achieve.
Nice chart by @armstrongcbc.bsky.social
We find out Friday if we have been in a recession for the past two quarters.
Not that the growth pattern of 2025 has been terrific, thus far.
We find out Friday if we have been in a recession for the past two quarters.
Not that the growth pattern of 2025 has been terrific, thus far.
November 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Nice chart by @armstrongcbc.bsky.social
We find out Friday if we have been in a recession for the past two quarters.
Not that the growth pattern of 2025 has been terrific, thus far.
We find out Friday if we have been in a recession for the past two quarters.
Not that the growth pattern of 2025 has been terrific, thus far.
Gorgeous rime-embroidered foliage
November 20, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Gorgeous rime-embroidered foliage
"Education solution" for children (to Grade 8)
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
Boston Dynamics was the only place making these things not long ago.
China gonna run the world soon.
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
Boston Dynamics was the only place making these things not long ago.
China gonna run the world soon.
November 14, 2025 at 7:02 PM
"Education solution" for children (to Grade 8)
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
Boston Dynamics was the only place making these things not long ago.
China gonna run the world soon.
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
Boston Dynamics was the only place making these things not long ago.
China gonna run the world soon.
"Education Solution" specifically designed for high schools, vocational schools and colleges, "encompasses hardware, software, curriculum, assessment, evaluation....competitions"
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
November 14, 2025 at 6:57 PM
"Education Solution" specifically designed for high schools, vocational schools and colleges, "encompasses hardware, software, curriculum, assessment, evaluation....competitions"
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
owebsite-cdn.ubtrobot.com/resources/fi...
The "attached document" is 11 pages long. Here's page 1.
Can you imagine the prosperity we could unleash if we stopped wasting money like this? (And collected taxes from those -- yacht and private plane buyers, for example -- who wouldn't actually change their consumption because of the cost?)
Can you imagine the prosperity we could unleash if we stopped wasting money like this? (And collected taxes from those -- yacht and private plane buyers, for example -- who wouldn't actually change their consumption because of the cost?)
November 14, 2025 at 2:32 PM
The "attached document" is 11 pages long. Here's page 1.
Can you imagine the prosperity we could unleash if we stopped wasting money like this? (And collected taxes from those -- yacht and private plane buyers, for example -- who wouldn't actually change their consumption because of the cost?)
Can you imagine the prosperity we could unleash if we stopped wasting money like this? (And collected taxes from those -- yacht and private plane buyers, for example -- who wouldn't actually change their consumption because of the cost?)
In response to reporters' queries about where the cost estimates for litigation came from, the author writes:
/2
/2
November 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM
In response to reporters' queries about where the cost estimates for litigation came from, the author writes:
/2
/2
Just doesn't want to stop trying
November 11, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Just doesn't want to stop trying
The U.S. has lost both.
By design.
Government of the richest, for the richest, by the richest.
By design.
Government of the richest, for the richest, by the richest.
November 3, 2025 at 9:09 PM
The U.S. has lost both.
By design.
Government of the richest, for the richest, by the richest.
By design.
Government of the richest, for the richest, by the richest.
Fascinating admission by Powell that central banks can't really address supply shortages with rate hikes/cuts when it comes to labour. And that labour supply is what is shrinking in the U.S. (of course also labour demand, becaue of the tariff uncertainty)
www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/ar...
www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/ar...
October 30, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Fascinating admission by Powell that central banks can't really address supply shortages with rate hikes/cuts when it comes to labour. And that labour supply is what is shrinking in the U.S. (of course also labour demand, becaue of the tariff uncertainty)
www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/ar...
www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/ar...
Meanwhile. Despite the frost.
Persist, my dears; persist.
Persist, my dears; persist.
October 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Meanwhile. Despite the frost.
Persist, my dears; persist.
Persist, my dears; persist.
foodbankscanada.ca/hunger-in-ca...
HUNGER COUNT just published.
Use of foodbanks has doubled since 2019.
1 in 5 people using foodbanks are working now, up from 1 in 10 in 2019.
In March 2025 *2.2M visits (1/3 of beneficiaries were kids)
*4.5M meals/snacks provided
This is Canada's new normal. SHAME
HUNGER COUNT just published.
Use of foodbanks has doubled since 2019.
1 in 5 people using foodbanks are working now, up from 1 in 10 in 2019.
In March 2025 *2.2M visits (1/3 of beneficiaries were kids)
*4.5M meals/snacks provided
This is Canada's new normal. SHAME
October 27, 2025 at 8:13 PM
foodbankscanada.ca/hunger-in-ca...
HUNGER COUNT just published.
Use of foodbanks has doubled since 2019.
1 in 5 people using foodbanks are working now, up from 1 in 10 in 2019.
In March 2025 *2.2M visits (1/3 of beneficiaries were kids)
*4.5M meals/snacks provided
This is Canada's new normal. SHAME
HUNGER COUNT just published.
Use of foodbanks has doubled since 2019.
1 in 5 people using foodbanks are working now, up from 1 in 10 in 2019.
In March 2025 *2.2M visits (1/3 of beneficiaries were kids)
*4.5M meals/snacks provided
This is Canada's new normal. SHAME
I am listening to the most beautiful opening to a conference and "land acknowledgment" I have ever heard. Alfred Lam, chair of the OCASI Board of Directors, thank you for the inspo.
I was also sent the most amazing photo this morning, from the shores of the Ottawa River.
Let yourself feel awe
I was also sent the most amazing photo this morning, from the shores of the Ottawa River.
Let yourself feel awe
October 22, 2025 at 1:20 PM
I am listening to the most beautiful opening to a conference and "land acknowledgment" I have ever heard. Alfred Lam, chair of the OCASI Board of Directors, thank you for the inspo.
I was also sent the most amazing photo this morning, from the shores of the Ottawa River.
Let yourself feel awe
I was also sent the most amazing photo this morning, from the shores of the Ottawa River.
Let yourself feel awe
IMF shot.
FT chaser: Things are great, but....
www.ft.com/content/87d7...
"JPMorgan, the largest US bank by deposits and assets, reported a slight increase in stress in its loan portfolio, with the proportion of loans marked as unrecoverable rising to the highest level since before the pandemic."
FT chaser: Things are great, but....
www.ft.com/content/87d7...
"JPMorgan, the largest US bank by deposits and assets, reported a slight increase in stress in its loan portfolio, with the proportion of loans marked as unrecoverable rising to the highest level since before the pandemic."
October 14, 2025 at 9:57 PM
IMF shot.
FT chaser: Things are great, but....
www.ft.com/content/87d7...
"JPMorgan, the largest US bank by deposits and assets, reported a slight increase in stress in its loan portfolio, with the proportion of loans marked as unrecoverable rising to the highest level since before the pandemic."
FT chaser: Things are great, but....
www.ft.com/content/87d7...
"JPMorgan, the largest US bank by deposits and assets, reported a slight increase in stress in its loan portfolio, with the proportion of loans marked as unrecoverable rising to the highest level since before the pandemic."
IMF warns of rising odds of 'disorderly' global market correction
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
"Global markets are too comfortable with risks, including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and yawning government deficits"
Also 👀
Non-banks "now holds roughly half of the world's financial assets"
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
"Global markets are too comfortable with risks, including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and yawning government deficits"
Also 👀
Non-banks "now holds roughly half of the world's financial assets"
October 14, 2025 at 8:58 PM
IMF warns of rising odds of 'disorderly' global market correction
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
"Global markets are too comfortable with risks, including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and yawning government deficits"
Also 👀
Non-banks "now holds roughly half of the world's financial assets"
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
"Global markets are too comfortable with risks, including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and yawning government deficits"
Also 👀
Non-banks "now holds roughly half of the world's financial assets"
Nominate a campaign for decent work in Ontario/Canada by noon October 27 and shine light on the purpose and joy of being part of The Good Fight.
$50K for the winner. $15K each for 2 runners-up.
Decent work for all. Because every job can be a good job.
$50K for the winner. $15K each for 2 runners-up.
Decent work for all. Because every job can be a good job.
October 14, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Nominate a campaign for decent work in Ontario/Canada by noon October 27 and shine light on the purpose and joy of being part of The Good Fight.
$50K for the winner. $15K each for 2 runners-up.
Decent work for all. Because every job can be a good job.
$50K for the winner. $15K each for 2 runners-up.
Decent work for all. Because every job can be a good job.