Great panel at ISA on Diplomatic Interventions and Challenges in Global Peacebuilding. I presented my research on how extending or withdrawing military support in mediation processes undermines the prospects for durable peace. Worked on this for 4 years, but could add a slide just the day before...

4/ One important contribution of our article is that unlike many previous quantitative studies that look at material factors like battle-deaths to explain the occurrence of negotiations, we focus on how the leaders’ perceptions of crises drive decisions to negotiate.

3/ Using new monthly data on mutual interventions in Africa (1960–2010), we find crises significantly increase the likelihood of negotiations. Why? Costs rise, and mediators intensify pressure. Crises increase urgency. One example is the Shaba I crisis between Zaire and Angola:

1/🧵Excited to share our latest article in JCR: “Crises and Negotiations in Mutual Interventions.” @htamm.bsky.social and I explore why rival states, supporting rebels in each other’s conflicts, decide to negotiate. Spoiler: international crises play a key role 🌍🤝 journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....