Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
@alexgabuev.bsky.social
Director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. Senior Advisor at DGA Group.
Will Trump's sanctions against Russian oil finally force Putin to abandon his war against Ukraine? We've dissected this issue with Eddie Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare." Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
The Collapse of the Oil Empire? New U.S. Sanctions Against Russia, With Edward Fishman
carnegieendowment.org
October 30, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Will Trump's sanctions against Russian oil finally force Putin to abandon his war against Ukraine? We've dissected this issue with Eddie Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare." Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
🎙️🎚️‼️
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...
Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko
open.spotify.com
September 19, 2025 at 10:28 AM
🎙️🎚️‼️
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.
Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko
carnegieendowment.org
September 5, 2025 at 7:26 AM
🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.
Putin’s Play for Time
How Trump’s performative diplomacy strengthens Russia’s hand.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 26, 2025 at 6:20 PM
At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.
"Russia is playing Trump for time. But despite the country’s confidence, it’s not clear that Putin has a realistic contingency plan should Kyiv prove able to hold on."
Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
Putin’s Play for Time
How Trump’s performative diplomacy strengthens Russia’s hand.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 26, 2025 at 8:32 AM
"Russia is playing Trump for time. But despite the country’s confidence, it’s not clear that Putin has a realistic contingency plan should Kyiv prove able to hold on."
Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
"Continuing the war remains Putin’s only source of leverage to secure a desirable outcome, and he is unlikely to surrender this tool. The grim reality is that the talks will be accompanied by ongoing fighting." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com. on.ft.com/46ZHhOh
Putin is back in the driver’s seat on Ukraine
Moscow is seeking victory, not compromise, through diplomacy — and Trump is playing along
on.ft.com
August 20, 2025 at 6:15 AM
"Continuing the war remains Putin’s only source of leverage to secure a desirable outcome, and he is unlikely to surrender this tool. The grim reality is that the talks will be accompanied by ongoing fighting." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com. on.ft.com/46ZHhOh
How is Russia reacting to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, what's at stake for the Kremlin, and what's Putin's gameplan? We've unpacked this in a short episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & Arkady Mil-Man. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
A Friend in Need? Decoding Russia’s Position on the Israel-Iran War, with Nicole Grajewski and Arkady Mil-Man
carnegieendowment.org
June 19, 2025 at 2:24 PM
How is Russia reacting to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, what's at stake for the Kremlin, and what's Putin's gameplan? We've unpacked this in a short episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & Arkady Mil-Man. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
President Trump’s desire to “get” Greenland isn’t keeping the U.S. secure. By working with – not against – its allies, Washington can counter Russia and China in the Arctic.
@ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...
@ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...
Trump’s Greenland Obsession Will Not Secure America
Countering Russia and China in the Arctic requires leveraging alliances, not fracturing them.
foreignpolicy.com
May 27, 2025 at 7:43 PM
President Trump’s desire to “get” Greenland isn’t keeping the U.S. secure. By working with – not against – its allies, Washington can counter Russia and China in the Arctic.
@ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...
@ibkardon.bsky.social and @alexgabuev.bsky.social explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
How can European and Asian democracies better prepare to manage the challenge posed by a rogue Russia? Join tomorrow's online discussion with @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Yuichi Hosoya, @sabfis3.bsky.social, and @maxseddon.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJw...
Turbocharged and Vengeful: Managing the Challenge of a Rogue Russia
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
www.youtube.com
May 21, 2025 at 4:52 PM
How can European and Asian democracies better prepare to manage the challenge posed by a rogue Russia? Join tomorrow's online discussion with @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Yuichi Hosoya, @sabfis3.bsky.social, and @maxseddon.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJw...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
'The victory has been completely hijacked by Putin.' Arkady Ostrovsky talks to @alexgabuev.bsky.social. First out a couple of weeks ago, but it's a very important listen for anyone wanting to understand what WWII meant to Soviet people, and what it means now.
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky
carnegieendowment.org
May 24, 2025 at 10:17 AM
'The victory has been completely hijacked by Putin.' Arkady Ostrovsky talks to @alexgabuev.bsky.social. First out a couple of weeks ago, but it's a very important listen for anyone wanting to understand what WWII meant to Soviet people, and what it means now.
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
How did the memorial aspect of Russia's Victory Day public holiday become overshadowed by militarism and belligerent slogans, and is it all about Putin these days? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Arkady Ostrovsky:
Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky
carnegieendowment.org
May 9, 2025 at 9:55 AM
How did the memorial aspect of Russia's Victory Day public holiday become overshadowed by militarism and belligerent slogans, and is it all about Putin these days? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Arkady Ostrovsky:
Russia is expanding its military-industrial complex and building new facilities. An important investigation by @reuters.com with @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social, @reporter-polina.bsky.social, @mcneill.bsky.social, @christianlowe.bsky.social, @zverevlive.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Russia building major new explosives facility as Ukraine war drags on
Increasing the supply of explosives available to fill munitions is critical to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. A Reuters analysis of documents and satellite imagery finds that the new production line could boost its firepower significantly.
www.reuters.com
May 8, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Russia is expanding its military-industrial complex and building new facilities. An important investigation by @reuters.com with @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social, @reporter-polina.bsky.social, @mcneill.bsky.social, @christianlowe.bsky.social, @zverevlive.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
"With Trump enthusiastically shattering the remains of the US-led order, Putin and Xi are unlikely to remain bystanders." Some thoughts on larger-than-life summit of the Russian and Chinese rulers in today's @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/c5a1...
Xi and Putin are the greatest beneficiaries of Trump’s chaos
Russia and China are unlikely to remain bystanders as America sorts out its own mess
www.ft.com
May 7, 2025 at 3:20 PM
"With Trump enthusiastically shattering the remains of the US-led order, Putin and Xi are unlikely to remain bystanders." Some thoughts on larger-than-life summit of the Russian and Chinese rulers in today's @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/c5a1...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
President Trump’s apparent belief that Ukraine will inevitably lose its war against Russia if it doesn’t accept a peace deal may not be in line with the battlefield reality.
@alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:
@alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:
Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman
Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions…
buff.ly
April 24, 2025 at 7:51 PM
President Trump’s apparent belief that Ukraine will inevitably lose its war against Russia if it doesn’t accept a peace deal may not be in line with the battlefield reality.
@alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:
@alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:
With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika"
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman
carnegieendowment.org
April 24, 2025 at 2:35 PM
With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika"
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
podcast, I'm joined by my colleague
@michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Unpacking three theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy with @stephenwertheim.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Gautam Chikermane of & Amanda Hsiao of @eurasiagroup.net
youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...
youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...
Three theories of Trump’s strategy for American power | DW Analysis
YouTube video by DW News
youtu.be
April 14, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Unpacking three theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy with @stephenwertheim.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Gautam Chikermane of & Amanda Hsiao of @eurasiagroup.net
youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...
youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...
🎙️‼️
What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effect on Russia with Tatiana Mikhailova
carnegieendowment.org
April 12, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🎙️‼️
What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
Here is one of the most eloquent and smart dissections of China's economy, tech, and geopolitics. By DGA Group's Joerg Wuttke in @gideonrachman.bsky.social's @financialtimes.com podcast. Well worth your time.
www.ft.com/content/02a0...
www.ft.com/content/02a0...
China in the age of Trump 2.0
Can China take advantage of the new era of economic and political turbulence?
www.ft.com
April 4, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Here is one of the most eloquent and smart dissections of China's economy, tech, and geopolitics. By DGA Group's Joerg Wuttke in @gideonrachman.bsky.social's @financialtimes.com podcast. Well worth your time.
www.ft.com/content/02a0...
www.ft.com/content/02a0...
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
youtu.be
April 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
How do BRICS members, partners, and aspirants see the organization? A helpful summary by @carnegieendowment.org, with a small contribution by yours truly on Russian perspectives.
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants
The potential of BRICS members and partner countries to fulfill their individual aspirations via BRICS hinges on what vision of the future of world order ultimately wins out within BRICS.
carnegieendowment.org
April 2, 2025 at 9:41 AM
How do BRICS members, partners, and aspirants see the organization? A helpful summary by @carnegieendowment.org, with a small contribution by yours truly on Russian perspectives.
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
"Every wrongful detention or ignored court ruling is a “trial balloon”. If there is no effective pushback, would-be authoritarians will go further and faster."
@gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America.
www.ft.com/content/804a...
@gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America.
www.ft.com/content/804a...
Lessons from Russia, Turkey and India for Trump’s America
Fighting for democracy can be a lonely and dangerous business
www.ft.com
April 1, 2025 at 9:37 AM
"Every wrongful detention or ignored court ruling is a “trial balloon”. If there is no effective pushback, would-be authoritarians will go further and faster."
@gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America.
www.ft.com/content/804a...
@gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America.
www.ft.com/content/804a...
After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. But is the real picture more nuanced? We explore with Balazs Jarabik in the newest episode of "Politika" podcast. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
A Deep Dive Inside Ukraine with Balazs Jarabik
carnegieendowment.org
March 29, 2025 at 6:54 AM
After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. But is the real picture more nuanced? We explore with Balazs Jarabik in the newest episode of "Politika" podcast. Tune in!
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...
What might be the Kremlin’s theory of victory navigating Trump 2.0 and fourth year of its war against Ukraine? We dissect it in @foreignaffairs.com with my great colleagues Alexandra Prokopenko and Tatiana Stanovaya.
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
Putin’s Theories of Victory
Russia sees Trump’s dealmaking as a can’t-lose proposition.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 27, 2025 at 5:59 PM
What might be the Kremlin’s theory of victory navigating Trump 2.0 and fourth year of its war against Ukraine? We dissect it in @foreignaffairs.com with my great colleagues Alexandra Prokopenko and Tatiana Stanovaya.
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
Reposted by Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士
Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Tatiana Stanovaya on how Moscow won over the White House—and what Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to gain from U.S.-Russian talks:
Putin’s Theories of Victory
Russia sees Trump’s dealmaking as a can’t-lose proposition.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 26, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Tatiana Stanovaya on how Moscow won over the White House—and what Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to gain from U.S.-Russian talks:
Thrilled to dissect the craziness of today's geopolitics with inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social & Karin von Hippel , moderated by Jamie Smyth at @financialtimes.com's annual #FTCommodities global summit.
March 24, 2025 at 6:08 AM
Thrilled to dissect the craziness of today's geopolitics with inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social & Karin von Hippel , moderated by Jamie Smyth at @financialtimes.com's annual #FTCommodities global summit.