Carlos Agarie
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Carlos Agarie
@agarie.bsky.social
51 followers 94 following 120 posts
I play Pokémon VGC/Guild Wars 2, enjoy woodworking, and write software for a living. I don't post on social networks a lot, but you can find about me on https://agarie.net.br :)
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Reposted by Carlos Agarie
voidscentury.bsky.social
by your 30s you should have at least 3 or 4 internet friends with tastes in weird cartoon pornography that don't overlap with your tastes in weird cartoon pornography
November 24, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Acho que os dois com mais horas são Guild Wars 2 com ~15000h e Pokémon que se somar tudo deve passar de 10000 também lol
gomademascar.bsky.social goma @gomademascar.bsky.social · 8d
"fala um jogo que você jogou por mais de 1250 horas"

nenhum? pelo amor de deus
November 23, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
ysd.bsky.social
Silence📚
November 16, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
sphealposting.bsky.social
Pokemon rumble spheal on an ocean background. Text says "you made it through another week, spheal is proud of you"
May 23, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
kmikemcd.bsky.social
Clouds got in the way last night. But here is a 4 panel mosaic of M31. 60 sub-frames in each panel for a total exposure time of 20 hours. I’m still working on the processing because of the huge dynamic range of the source. I may share another take down the road. #astrophotography
November 12, 2025 at 7:50 PM
@edgeaoshi.bsky.social @tangbr.bsky.social Falamos sobre o Christopher ter sumido aquele dia voltando para SP, né? Ele vira e mexe aparece online aqui no Switch jogando Legends Z-A hahaha

Temos que checar se ele não está por aqui no bsky :P
November 13, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
edzitron.com
Me, two weeks ago
www.wheresyoured.at/big-tech-2tr...
As we speak, big tech is hoarding masses of GPUs, and by extension, masses of depreciating assets that will without fail lead to a massive impairment loss, which will come directly out of their earnings, and when they’ve spent tens or hundreds of billions of dollars on GPUs, these impairments will be extremely harsh, and come directly out of earnings. So, on top of spending hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures, big tech is also conjuring a giant anvil above their heads. GPUs start losing value the moment you buy them, and by purchasing hundreds of billions of expensive, ever-rotting assets, big tech guarantees their revenues will take a hit sometime in the future, and likely multiple times as each generation ages. Let me put it in really simple terms, and use a hypothetical example. Ten companies bought $10bn of GPUs each to sell AI services, each requiring billions of dollars of data center infrastructure to go on top of them to make them run. As a result, one of the companies — let’s call them BallWeave — has had to take on an absolute shit ton of debt to buy them. BallWeave eventually runs into solvency issues, and has to start selling off masses of GPUs, massively reducing the market value of these GPUs by 30%. This causes the other 9 companies to have to take an immediate impairment — a $3bn haircut directly off of their balance sheet. There is no spreading it out. This is a problem, in part because $3bn is a lot of money, and in part because that’s more than the revenue being generated from AI. The impairment has an immediate negative effect on their assets, while also directly eating into their income, because this shit is almost certainly being financed. This hypothetical scenario is quite real, and it can hurt you, and will hurt any and all companies buying masses of GPUs. One last thing: Remember how I said that there are many ways to calculate depreciation over the useful lifetime of an object? Well, the depreciation rate is always the difference between the initial value of the item and its salvage value — which means how much a company can expect to make when they dispose of the item, either by reselling it or literally scrapping it for parts. So, for the sake of illustration, if a GPU costs $50,000 and has a useful life of five years, after which it has a nominal salvage value of $10,000, the amount said company could mark down as depreciation over that lifespan is $40,000. This is simply me talking out loud, but I worry that there’s no real way to accurately predict what that salvage value of an enterprise GPU will be. It’s contingent on a bunch of factors — namely, how long these cards last in real-world conditions, where they’re experiencing near-constant utilization, as well the pace and the quality of Nvidia’s future releases. It’s bad, and only compounds the fact that they’ve already created a giant, ugly, unsustainable hole on top of their earnings.
November 10, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Cidade zoada dos infernos pqp
November 10, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
bewill.bsky.social
competitive pokemon is inherently somewhat luck based so you may think this primes me for the current gambling epidemic but it actually insulates me from it because i will literally see something with 90% odds and be like "yeah i've missed that play rough before" and not take the risk
November 7, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
edzitron.com
Anyway, this piece is the near-culmination of two years of research, and I'd appreciate you subscribing to the premium. It is an exhaustive analysis of OpenAI's cash position, and while there are more questions than answers, I think it'll be eventually historic.
www.wheresyoured.at/where-is-ope...
Premium: OpenAI Burned $4.1 Billion More Than We Knew - Where Is Its Money Going?
Soundtrack: Queens of the Stone Age - Song For The Dead Editor's Note: The original piece had a mathematical error around burnrate, it's been fixed. Also, welcome to another premium issue! Please do...
www.wheresyoured.at
November 7, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
edzitron.com
I do not think there is another person on Earth who has read as much about OpenAI's finances as me, and I cannot find a justification for the $4.1bn shortfall, other than that OpenAI's costs are much higher than we know. I refuse to believe there's only one company in this position in AI.
November 7, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
edzitron.com
Altman claims OpenAI will make $1.66bn in revenue a month by the end of the year. If that's the case, why do they need so much funding? Where did the $4.1 billion go? And why is there seemingly no concern elsewhere about it? That's a lot of money!

www.wheresyoured.at/where-is-ope...
Premium: OpenAI Burned $4.1 Billion More Than We Knew - Where Is Its Money Going?
Soundtrack: Queens of the Stone Age - Song For The Dead Editor's Note: The original piece had a mathematical error around burnrate, it's been fixed. Also, welcome to another premium issue! Please do...
www.wheresyoured.at
November 7, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
edzitron.com
The premium this week is the precursor to something I'm working on coming out in the next week or two (which will be free). But one thing I can't stop thinking about - how has nobody else simply added up all the funding and revenues and costs? Hell, I should've done it months ago.
edzitron.com Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 24d
In an analysis of OpenAI's costs, revenues and funding from 2023 to 1H 2025, it raised $28.6bn in cash ($10bn rev included), and had $13.7bn in cash losses.

Reports say OpenAI ended 1H 2025 with $9.6bn. It should have $14.9bn in cash. There's a $4.1bn+ hole.
www.wheresyoured.at/where-is-ope...
A Brief History of OpenAI’s Revenues and Costs If there are other articles reporting OpenAI's revenues or costs, please do get in touch. But I don't think anybody has ever done a full run-down. Behold! On February 9, 2024, The Financial Times said that “OpenAI’s revenues have surpassed $2bn on an annualised basis,” with the company apparently hitting it “In December 2023,” according to “two people with knowledge of its finances.” There was no mention of any comment related to OpenAI in this article. On June 12, 2024, The Information reported that “OpenAI has more than doubled its annualized revenue to $3.4 billion in the past six months or so, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has told staff.” This amounts to around $283m in revenue a month at the end of calendar year Q2 2024. This appears to be sourced from something that Sam Altman told staff. Curiously, this is the only time I’ve seen OpenAI comment on one of these stories, with “...an OpenAI spokeswoman [saying] the financial details were “inaccurate,” without elaborating.” I have read every single one of these and I cannot find another instance of this happening. This makes me believe, along with other information from sources, that these numbers are particularly accurate. This article also confirms that OpenAI gets a “roughly” 20% revenue share cut from Microsoft selling its models. On July 24, 2024, The Information published that OpenAI “could lose as much as $5 billion” in 2024, “according to an analysis by The Information, based on previously undisclosed internal financial data and people involved in the business.” Spokespeople for Microsoft and OpenAI did not have a comment. On September 27. 2024, the New York Times reported that “OpenAI’s monthly revenue hit $300 million in August…and the company expects about $3.7 billion in annual sales [in 2024],” according to a financial professional’s review of documents. That’s $300m in revenue in the month of August 2024. Details are important. OpenAI declined to comment. On October 9, 2024, The Information reported that “OpenAI burned $340 million in the first half of 2024” and that its “cash burn was lower than previously thought,” based on “OpenAI financial documents viewed by The Information.” These documents also “project [OpenAI’s] total losses between 2023 and 2028 to be $44 billion” not including stock compensation, and, laughably, that OpenAI would “make $14 billion in profit [based on the analysis] in 2029.” OpenAI also, in this document, said that “model training costs could rise sharply in the next couple of years, to as high as $9.5 billion a year in 2026.” This same piece included projections that OpenAI would make $12bn in 2025, $26bn in 2026, $44bn in 2027, $69bn in 2028, and $100bn in 2029. There was no mention of any comment related to OpenAI in this article. On February 21, 2025, The Information reported that OpenAI forecasted that “one-third of [its] revenue growth would come from spending by SoftBank to use OpenAI’s products across its companies,” with SoftBank spending $3bn per year. It took until November 5, 2025 for the joint venture involving this spend to actually form. This is sourced to disclosures by OpenAI to its investors. This piece also asserts that $3bn from SoftBank would get OpenAI to $12.7bn in revenue for 2025. There was no mention of any comment related to OpenAI in this article. In this piece, The Information reports that “...[OpenAI’s] spending on Microsoft-owned data centers should ramp up significantly in the next few years, more than doubling from $13 billion this year to $28 billion in 2028.” On March 26, 2025, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI “expects to more than triple its revenue to $12.7 billion in 2025,” and that it generated “$3.7 billion in annual revenue last year,” according to a person familiar with the matter who “spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal communications. In the piece, Bloomberg states that “OpenAI does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029, t… On June 9, 2025, an OpenAI spokesperson told CNBC that it had hit “$10 billion annual recurring revenue,” excluding licensing revenue from OpenAI’s 20% revenue share and “large, one-time deals.” $10bn annualized revenue works out to around $833, a month. This news also revealed that OpenAI had reached $5.5bn in annualized revenue in December 2024, or $458m. I have some fucking questions. Why is OpenAI deliberately excluding that cut? Is it because Microsoft didn’t authorize it? What exactly is the time period that “annualized” covers? What are these “large, one-time deals” and why wouldn’t you include them in revenue? On September 5, 2025, The Information reported that “OpenAI projected its cash burn this year through 2029 will rise even higher than previously thought, to a total of $115 billion.” None of this information is sourced in a way that I can see. It’s the strangest thing. The only mention of anything like that is to say that one thing — that OpenAI would consider renting out servers to other companies — was “according to recent comments by OpenAI executives.” While I can’t speak to how this information got the reporter, it feels like this was OpenAI. There is no mention of asking anyone for comment. Nevertheless, this piece says that: OpenAI’s cash burn would be around $9bn in 2025 (though the copy says $8bn, the “Cash Crunch” graph says $9bn), around $17bn in 2026, around $35bn in 2027, around $47bn in 2028, around $8bn in 2029, and then, inexplicably, have a positive cash flow of $38bn. Huh? The piece also mentions that cash burn would be “more than $10 billion higher” than previous cash burn projections from OpenAI, without linking to or sourcing where they received that information (though it’s potentially part of their source’s info). This piece also vastly increases revenues, saying that OpenAI will make $13bn in revenue in 2025, $30bn in 2026, $60bn in 2027, $100bn in 2028, $145bn in 2029, and $200bn in 2030. On September 10, 2025 — five days after a story saying OpenAI would burn $35bn in 2027 — Oracle and OpenAI announced a $300bn, five-year-long cloud deal. I believe this was intentional as this deal is not reflected in the cash burn above. On September 19, 2025, The Information reported that OpenAI “planned to spend about $100 billion renting backup servers from cloud providers over the next five years,” according to what executives have told shareholders. According to The Information, “including the backup servers, OpenAI is planning to spend about $85 billion a year on server rentals over the next five years, on average, according to the company’s private projections.” Yet deeper in the piece, The Information added that “OpenAI plans to spend $450 billion renting servers through 2030, including $100 billion in backup servers it says are ‘monetizeable’.” There is no mentioned request for comment. On September 29, 2025, The Information reported that OpenAI “generated around $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, about 16% more than it generated all of last year, according to financial disclosures to shareholders.” OpenAI “burned $2.5 billion” in the first half of 2025 (assume all following statements are from that time period). OpenAI spent $2bn on sales and marketing. OpenAI spent $6.2bn on research and development, which The Information believes is due to research compute costs. OpenAI “looked on track to meet its full-year revenue projection of $13 billion and $8.5 billion of cash burn.” There is no mentioned request for comment. On October 31, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that Microsoft had mentioned in its recent earnings that it had taken a $4.1bn loss on its investment in OpenAI, implying a more than $12bn quarterly loss at the company due to Microsoft’s 32.% stake in that quarter (which has now dropped to 27%). The reason I exhaustively wrote this out is that when you lay it all out, a pattern develops: OpenAI is bullshitting its projec…
November 7, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
alerkingo.bsky.social
pra desativar:

1. clica na sua foto
2. configurações e privacidade
3. privacidade dos dados
4. dados para aprimoramento da IA generativa
November 3, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
iczelia.net
Regarding the recent rust-in-apt drama: the argument that important alternative platforms are left behind is not close to being true, and in this thread I want to explain why...

Let's start by analysing the data from popcon.debian.org.
November 2, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
r-a-ine.bsky.social
November 1, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
uma1wa.bsky.social
October 29, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
win98tech.bsky.social
Stop doomscrolling and just learn something. Learn to fix things, learn a skill, there are so many free resources. Start writing, start drawing, who cares if it sucks just do something, do anything. You will feel so much better.
radiodeadair.com Nash @radiodeadair.com · Oct 25
My best advice to try to get a handle on shit right now?

Make something.

Don't care what. Don't care if it's good. Don't care if it's just a big ass house you made in Sims 4, just lose yourself in something for an hour or so.

It' s like flushing the brain toilet.
October 25, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
louceph.com
please watch movies and read books and play games and look at art, please view it with your own eyes through a lens you made yourself and not just through video essayists and ending explained videos please im begging you
October 21, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
caixadoremedios.art
É impossível jogar no mesmo ritmo que um produtor de conteúdo de games que atropela toda a experiência pra poder entregar uma análise

Não se comprometa financeiramente, não tem como acompanhar todos os lançamentos

Jogue no seu ritmo, você não precisa bater meta no seu lazer
October 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
nataliajagielska.bsky.social
And that's how you integrate digital elements into an exhibition. Part of the temporary "China's Dinosaur World" at the Shanghai Natural History Museum, China. Closing this November.

Video source: Shanghai Let's Meet
September 27, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
loraart.work
Got sick and only managed to attack once this week: this time for @grimmla.bsky.social ! I seriously admire their work and Crowley's design stole my heart!

One attack left and then I'll try to squeeze some revenges 👀

#artfight #Artfight2025 #teamfossils #art #BRart #furry #furryart #anthro
July 12, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Reposted by Carlos Agarie
loraart.work
First time participating on #PortfolioDay!

Hi, I'm Lora, an artist from Brazil who likes to draw fantasy characters. I'm currently practicing more drawing vfx, backgrounds and learning better painting techniques.

I'm available for work on vgen.co/loraart or through loraartwork@pm.me!
July 8, 2025 at 1:45 PM