Ariel Edwards-Levy
@aedwardslevy.bsky.social
Polling editor at CNN, keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. I like puns.
190. Pew, 2000: "Do you get a lot of 'spam' or unwanted e-mail messages, or isn't this a problem for you?"
November 13, 2025 at 9:00 PM
190. Pew, 2000: "Do you get a lot of 'spam' or unwanted e-mail messages, or isn't this a problem for you?"
189. Gallup, 2003: "Do you happen to know the first name of the First Lady of the United States?"
November 13, 2025 at 8:57 PM
189. Gallup, 2003: "Do you happen to know the first name of the First Lady of the United States?"
188. SSRS, 2019: "What is your favorite type of Girl Scout cookie?"
November 13, 2025 at 8:56 PM
188. SSRS, 2019: "What is your favorite type of Girl Scout cookie?"
187. British Institute of Public Opinion, 1946: "Do you think that the Government's popularity has or has not suffered through the recent cut in beer?"
November 13, 2025 at 8:55 PM
187. British Institute of Public Opinion, 1946: "Do you think that the Government's popularity has or has not suffered through the recent cut in beer?"
186. CBS, 2017: "Which of the following is your favorite summer treat?"
November 13, 2025 at 8:54 PM
186. CBS, 2017: "Which of the following is your favorite summer treat?"
185. Penn, Schoen, Berland, 2007 (asked of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers -- presumably for Clinton campaign?): "Which would you rather have? A nominee who is strong, a nominee who is inspiring"
November 13, 2025 at 8:53 PM
185. Penn, Schoen, Berland, 2007 (asked of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers -- presumably for Clinton campaign?): "Which would you rather have? A nominee who is strong, a nominee who is inspiring"
Another study (using an opt-in sample) found higher rate of reported conspiracy beliefs among low-quality respondents
Also notes that just throwing out all flagged respondents can bring its own problems
Also notes that just throwing out all flagged respondents can bring its own problems
November 13, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Another study (using an opt-in sample) found higher rate of reported conspiracy beliefs among low-quality respondents
Also notes that just throwing out all flagged respondents can bring its own problems
Also notes that just throwing out all flagged respondents can bring its own problems
And from Sunshine Hillygus at Duke:
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
November 13, 2025 at 5:48 PM
And from Sunshine Hillygus at Duke:
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
I love that this includes a *self-reported* measure of whether respondent was just trying to be funny with some responses.
(I don't even know what "Trump Bee Movie" means here but I will certainly google)
From Matt Tyler at Rice on measuring support for beliefs in conspiracies: One idea is to look at whether respondents report consistent beliefs over multiple questions in the same survey, with different wording.
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
November 13, 2025 at 5:39 PM
From Matt Tyler at Rice on measuring support for beliefs in conspiracies: One idea is to look at whether respondents report consistent beliefs over multiple questions in the same survey, with different wording.
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
(Also: bonus Olympics content!)
So how to catch these mischievous responders? Look for variation on traits that *shouldn't* differ between groups.
November 13, 2025 at 5:28 PM
So how to catch these mischievous responders? Look for variation on traits that *shouldn't* differ between groups.
From Joseph Simpian at NYU -- this time looking at an in-person probability survey of teens that asked whether they were adopted. In a more in-depth follow-up, some who said "yes" were misreporting -- and they were much more different from rest of sample than real adoptees
Also some A+ clipart
Also some A+ clipart
November 13, 2025 at 5:26 PM
From Joseph Simpian at NYU -- this time looking at an in-person probability survey of teens that asked whether they were adopted. In a more in-depth follow-up, some who said "yes" were misreporting -- and they were much more different from rest of sample than real adoptees
Also some A+ clipart
Also some A+ clipart
Leib Littman at CloudResearch notes that acquiescence bias is often exacerbated on some opt-in online panels typically used for consumer research, where fraudulent respondents have an incentive to say "yes" and route themselves into more surveys.
November 13, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Leib Littman at CloudResearch notes that acquiescence bias is often exacerbated on some opt-in online panels typically used for consumer research, where fraudulent respondents have an incentive to say "yes" and route themselves into more surveys.
can I file some sort of appeal
November 13, 2025 at 2:08 PM
can I file some sort of appeal
i do in fact usually think of myself as a party
![Variable(s):
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: [PARTY]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:prpvntklgieefdnv234z5gae/bafkreib5a2i7uqrbj3zh4f3xtrafyjlydcctkchsx5swigconffrgday5a@jpeg)
November 12, 2025 at 6:02 PM
i do in fact usually think of myself as a party
I mean, I think it's an open question what kind of coverage it gets among the kinds of media outlets disproportionately consumed by people with positive views of Trump available to damage, but I wouldn't say it is not being brought to the public attention
November 12, 2025 at 2:40 PM
I mean, I think it's an open question what kind of coverage it gets among the kinds of media outlets disproportionately consumed by people with positive views of Trump available to damage, but I wouldn't say it is not being brought to the public attention
an attempt was made
November 7, 2025 at 11:41 PM
an attempt was made
November 6, 2025 at 10:01 PM
There's an interesting throughline here about MAGA identification serving as a proxy for being politically aware enough to know what position your side is "supposed" to have and to adapt your position based on it.
(I don't think this is unique to MAGA)
www.kff.org/public-opini...
(I don't think this is unique to MAGA)
www.kff.org/public-opini...
November 6, 2025 at 3:42 PM
There's an interesting throughline here about MAGA identification serving as a proxy for being politically aware enough to know what position your side is "supposed" to have and to adapt your position based on it.
(I don't think this is unique to MAGA)
www.kff.org/public-opini...
(I don't think this is unique to MAGA)
www.kff.org/public-opini...
poor
fair
good
excellent
flat noodle
fair
good
excellent
flat noodle
November 5, 2025 at 11:03 PM
poor
fair
good
excellent
flat noodle
fair
good
excellent
flat noodle
If I can stop one person from reading the columns as rows it will be my greatest accomplishment
November 5, 2025 at 2:35 PM
If I can stop one person from reading the columns as rows it will be my greatest accomplishment
November 5, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Trump won a return to the White House amid broad national dissatisfaction. A year later CNN exit polling finds voters expressing similar pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments — this time, helping to fuel a sweep of Democratic victories.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/04/p...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/04/p...
November 5, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Trump won a return to the White House amid broad national dissatisfaction. A year later CNN exit polling finds voters expressing similar pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments — this time, helping to fuel a sweep of Democratic victories.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/04/p...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/04/p...
petition to find the least online person you know and ask them to explain why each of these might be a "trending topic"
November 3, 2025 at 10:00 PM
petition to find the least online person you know and ask them to explain why each of these might be a "trending topic"