@abispeaks.bsky.social
This is fantastic.
December 3, 2025 at 1:22 AM
This is fantastic.
Love the amount of detail in your alt-text! What a cool little story.
November 25, 2025 at 5:55 AM
Love the amount of detail in your alt-text! What a cool little story.
You mean the tiddies, right?
November 14, 2025 at 8:57 PM
You mean the tiddies, right?
I cover this in the piece! OpenAI doesn't have capex - everybody else is paying for the land, the data centers, the GPUs, etc. OpenAI doesn't have assets other than real estate. They even buy other companies in stock.
![What About Compute Contract Pre-Payments?
So, as we’re limiting this analysis to the period from 2023 through H1 2025, we’re limited to three vendors:
Oracle for Stargate Abilene, with the initial $30bn a year deal reported in early June 2025.
CoreWeave’s $11.6bn (at the time) compute deal.
Google, which is paying CoreWeave to provide OpenAI’s compute.
There is a chance that OpenAI had to pre-pay some chunk of its CoreWeave deal — five years at $11.6bn could foreseeably be $2.3bn (1/5th of the deal), and given that servicing OpenAI’s needs would require significant upfront expenses from CoreWeave (in the form of new facilities and hardware), it’s not inconceivable that it would ask Altman to reach into his wallet.
Then again, CoreWeave ended Q2 2025 with around $2bn in cash on a loss of $605m, and mentioned that its “weighted-average prepayment across all active contracts was 15% to 25% of the total contract value,” adding that “the level of prepayments…may fluctuate over time” as CoreWeave scaled its operations. To be clear, 15% of $11.6bn is $1.74bn, and 25% is $2.9bn.
Those are high enough costs that I cannot believe we wouldn’t see them in the reporting around OpenAI’s H1 2025 costs.
I also do not believe Oracle is actually making OpenAI pay in advance. The Information reported in April 2025 that OpenAI can walk away from the deal for Stargate Abilene “...if Oracle and its construction partners [don’t] complete the project quickly enough,’ which heavily suggests that OpenAI hasn’t had to pay them a dime yet. While Stargate is partially operational, that only happened in September 2025, and again, any prepayment would be kind of obvious.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qc6xzgctorfsm35w6i3vdebx/bafkreigrqxvpasx34nm45yh43qai4cd5dmlo6mvu5bj25siyesncdesscu@jpeg)
November 7, 2025 at 9:04 PM
He did the thing
November 7, 2025 at 2:34 AM
He did the thing
Weird. I've had no luck for a couple of weeks now despite adding -ai to every prompt.
November 7, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Weird. I've had no luck for a couple of weeks now despite adding -ai to every prompt.
It's the Nisour Square Massacre but with higher kill counts and even less shame.
September 22, 2025 at 2:59 PM
It's the Nisour Square Massacre but with higher kill counts and even less shame.
Telegram will give your chats to the cops with almost zero prompting.
Signal is a much, much better choice.
Signal is a much, much better choice.
September 20, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Telegram will give your chats to the cops with almost zero prompting.
Signal is a much, much better choice.
Signal is a much, much better choice.
Charlie Chaplin was also a pedophile. Not saying that to erase the other things he did, but we gotta be honest about the good and the bad.
September 19, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Charlie Chaplin was also a pedophile. Not saying that to erase the other things he did, but we gotta be honest about the good and the bad.
Incredible title, 11/10
September 16, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Incredible title, 11/10