James Bailey
@1armedeconomist.bsky.social
Econ Prof at Providence College. Health Economics and Regulation.
www.JamesBaileyEcon.com
www.JamesBaileyEcon.com
Happy Thanksgiving economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/27/t...
Thanks to the Readers
Bryan Caplan explains why blogging is his favorite way to write, even as someone who has published many articles and books. It’s because of the readers: The blog posts, finally, are the most …
economistwritingeveryday.com
November 27, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Happy Thanksgiving economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/27/t...
As of now tariffs are raising Americans' costs by about 2%:
What Tariffs Mean For Your Finances
That’s the title of a talk I’ll be giving Saturday at the Financial Capability Conference at Rhode Island College. Registration for the conference, which also features personal finance …
economistwritingeveryday.com
November 20, 2025 at 2:36 PM
As of now tariffs are raising Americans' costs by about 2%:
12 states representing 21% of US high schoolers passed mandates for personal finance classes just since 2022. This sounds like a good idea that will enable students to navigate the modern economy. But does it work in practice?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/13/d...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/13/d...
Do Required Personal Finance Classes Work?
41 states now require students to take a course in economics or personal finance in order to graduate high school: Source: Council for Economic Education 12 states representing 21% of US high schoo…
economistwritingeveryday.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:24 PM
12 states representing 21% of US high schoolers passed mandates for personal finance classes just since 2022. This sounds like a good idea that will enable students to navigate the modern economy. But does it work in practice?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/13/d...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/13/d...
Reposted by James Bailey
My paper on the consumer financial impacts of Missouri's 2005 Medicaid cut with @1armedeconomist.bsky.social and Slava Mikhed is finally out in the fall issue of AJHE: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Missouri’s Medicaid Contraction and Consumer Financial Outcomes | American Journal of Health Economics: Vol 11, No 4
Abstract In July 2005, the state of Missouri implemented a series of cuts to its Medicaid program. These cuts resulted in the elimination of the Medical Assistance for Workers with Disabilities progra...
www.journals.uchicago.edu
November 10, 2025 at 5:15 PM
My paper on the consumer financial impacts of Missouri's 2005 Medicaid cut with @1armedeconomist.bsky.social and Slava Mikhed is finally out in the fall issue of AJHE: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Morgan Housel's new book is pretty good:
The Art of Spending Money
The author of The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel, has a new book “The Art of Spending Money” out this month. Its main point is that people tend to be happier spending money on thing…
economistwritingeveryday.com
October 30, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Morgan Housel's new book is pretty good:
Reposted by James Bailey
Kihwan Bae of @kneecenter.bsky.social and @1armedeconomist.bsky.social of @provcollege.bsky.social evaluate the effect of Certificate-of-Need laws on health care workers.
#CertificateOfNeed #HealthCareWorkers #Wages #Employment
#CertificateOfNeed #HealthCareWorkers #Wages #Employment
doi.org
October 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Kihwan Bae of @kneecenter.bsky.social and @1armedeconomist.bsky.social of @provcollege.bsky.social evaluate the effect of Certificate-of-Need laws on health care workers.
#CertificateOfNeed #HealthCareWorkers #Wages #Employment
#CertificateOfNeed #HealthCareWorkers #Wages #Employment
Why are there 60+ songs called "Better Man" and only one called "Better Woman"?
A Better Man / A Better Woman
There are 62 songs called “Better Man” just on Ultimate Guitar (which doesn’t claim to be comprehensive), plus many more slight variations like “A Better Man” or ̶…
economistwritingeveryday.com
October 16, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Why are there 60+ songs called "Better Man" and only one called "Better Woman"?
Where to find data if the government shutdown takes it down: economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/10/09/t...
Triumph of the Data Hoarders 2: The Institutions
Datasets can be pulled offline for all sorts of reasons. As I wrote in February, this shows the value of being a data hoarder- just downloading now any data you think you might want later: Several …
economistwritingeveryday.com
October 9, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Where to find data if the government shutdown takes it down: economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/10/09/t...
The young have always been more optimistic than the old, but this is no longer the case, at least according to the Michigan consumer sentiment survey:
What Killed Youth Optimism?
The young have always been more optimistic than the old, but this is no longer the case, at least according to the Michigan consumer sentiment survey: Source: Bloomberg via Joe Weisenthal But as Je…
economistwritingeveryday.com
September 22, 2025 at 12:08 AM
The young have always been more optimistic than the old, but this is no longer the case, at least according to the Michigan consumer sentiment survey:
The last time inflation was at or below 2.0% was February 2021. The Fed just cut rates despite inflation being at 2.6%. If you didn’t know about their 2% target & looked only at their actions, what would you guess their target is?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/18/i...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/18/i...
Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Really 2%?
The Fed has had an official inflation target of 2% since 2012, a commitment they reaffirmed just last month after their policy review: The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rat…
economistwritingeveryday.com
September 18, 2025 at 2:29 PM
The last time inflation was at or below 2.0% was February 2021. The Fed just cut rates despite inflation being at 2.6%. If you didn’t know about their 2% target & looked only at their actions, what would you guess their target is?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/18/i...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/18/i...
The Fed is about to make a mistake: economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/11/d...
Don’t Cut Rates
The Federal Reserve will probably cut rates next week: I can’t advise them on the complex politics of this, but based on the economics I think cutting would be a mistake. I see one good reaso…
economistwritingeveryday.com
September 11, 2025 at 3:32 PM
The Fed is about to make a mistake: economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/11/d...
New replication project for Health Behavior research.
They offer funding if you try to replicate a paper this fall:
www.cos.io/rphb
They offer funding if you try to replicate a paper this fall:
www.cos.io/rphb
Replicability Project: Health Behavior (RPHB)
The Center for Open Science (COS) is launching the Replicability Project: Health Behavior (RPHB), which is a large-scale, multi-team effort to help support a transparent and trustworthy foundation in ...
www.cos.io
September 7, 2025 at 4:56 PM
New replication project for Health Behavior research.
They offer funding if you try to replicate a paper this fall:
www.cos.io/rphb
They offer funding if you try to replicate a paper this fall:
www.cos.io/rphb
Physically showing up to class is one thing I can still be sure the AI isn't doing for you:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/14/w...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/14/w...
Why I Started Grading Attendance
I’ve taught college classes since 2010, but I never graded attendance directly until this year. I thought that students are adults who can make their own choices about where to spend their ti…
economistwritingeveryday.com
August 19, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Physically showing up to class is one thing I can still be sure the AI isn't doing for you:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/14/w...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/14/w...
Parents work longer instead of retiring in order to keep health insurance for their adult kids:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/07/p...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/07/p...
Parental Job Lock
The Affordable Care Act was supposed to make it easier for American workers to switch jobs by making it easier to get health insurance from sources other than their current employer. Mostly it didn…
economistwritingeveryday.com
August 7, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Parents work longer instead of retiring in order to keep health insurance for their adult kids:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/07/p...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/07/p...
Making a clean panel dataset of the historical demographics of US states available here:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/31/s...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/31/s...
State Demographics 1962-2024
I provide a simple, clean panel dataset of the historical demographics of US states here. I made this state-year level dataset from the individual-level responses in the Current Population Survey&#…
economistwritingeveryday.com
August 3, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Making a clean panel dataset of the historical demographics of US states available here:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/31/s...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/31/s...
New dataset gives exact dates for when every state passed and repealed their Certificate of Need laws: ciceroinstitute.org/blog/compreh...
Comprehensive Certificate of Need (CON) Laws Dataset | Cicero Institute
Filling the Gap: Issue Areas Related Content Certificate of Need (CON) laws require doctors and hospitals to get special permission from the state to open
ciceroinstitute.org
July 21, 2025 at 5:52 PM
New dataset gives exact dates for when every state passed and repealed their Certificate of Need laws: ciceroinstitute.org/blog/compreh...
Iowa just joined Connecticut, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and West Virginia in the club of states to repeal Certificate of Need requirements for Birth Centers in the past 2 years:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/17/f...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/17/f...
Freedom for Freestanding Birth Centers
Iowa recently joined the growing list of states where midwives or obstetricians can open a freestanding birth center without needing to convince a state board that it is economically necessary. The…
economistwritingeveryday.com
July 17, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Iowa just joined Connecticut, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and West Virginia in the club of states to repeal Certificate of Need requirements for Birth Centers in the past 2 years:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/17/f...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/17/f...
What I learned trying to stump frontier AI models:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/10/w...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/10/w...
Writing Humanity’s Last Exam
When every frontier AI model can pass your tests, how do you figure out which model is best? You write a harder test. That was the idea behind Humanity’s Last Exam, an effort by Scale AI and …
economistwritingeveryday.com
July 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
What I learned trying to stump frontier AI models:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/10/w...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/10/w...
At this point John Maynard Keynes himself would be saying to cut the deficit, but we're about to make it bigger:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/03/t...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/03/t...
The Ugly Gray Rhino Gathers Speed
A black swan is a crisis that comes out of nowhere. A gray rhino, by contrast, is a problem we have known about for a long time, but can’t or won’t stop, that will at some point crash i…
economistwritingeveryday.com
July 3, 2025 at 3:03 PM
At this point John Maynard Keynes himself would be saying to cut the deficit, but we're about to make it bigger:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/03/t...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/03/t...
Reposted by James Bailey
July 3, 2025 at 1:25 PM
ADP reports that the US economy lost jobs in June for the first time since March 2023, and only the second time since 2020:
July 2, 2025 at 2:13 PM
ADP reports that the US economy lost jobs in June for the first time since March 2023, and only the second time since 2020:
Technologies like hydrophones and satellites, if used well, will increasingly make public waters more “excludable” and reduce “tragedy of the commons” overfishing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/26/e...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/26/e...
Excluding “Non-Excludable” Goods
Intro microeconomics classes teach that some goods are “non-excludable”, meaning that people who don’t pay for them can’t be stopped from using them. This can lead to a R…
economistwritingeveryday.com
June 29, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Technologies like hydrophones and satellites, if used well, will increasingly make public waters more “excludable” and reduce “tragedy of the commons” overfishing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/26/e...
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/26/e...
Of people who said they were 100% sure they would start a business in the next 2 years, only 20% actually did. Intentions are very different from actions
(according to the Germany Socioeconomic Panel)
(according to the Germany Socioeconomic Panel)
June 24, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Of people who said they were 100% sure they would start a business in the next 2 years, only 20% actually did. Intentions are very different from actions
(according to the Germany Socioeconomic Panel)
(according to the Germany Socioeconomic Panel)
When your survey is just 2 years old, it is easy to set records, but still striking:
Consumer sentiment at record lows, consumers cutting discretionary spending at record highs in response
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/19/l...
Consumer sentiment at record lows, consumers cutting discretionary spending at record highs in response
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/19/l...
LIFE Survey Comes Alive
Last year I posted that the Philly Fed had started a new quarterly survey on Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE). I thought it looked promising but had yet to achieve its potential: It…
economistwritingeveryday.com
June 20, 2025 at 11:17 AM
When your survey is just 2 years old, it is easy to set records, but still striking:
Consumer sentiment at record lows, consumers cutting discretionary spending at record highs in response
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/19/l...
Consumer sentiment at record lows, consumers cutting discretionary spending at record highs in response
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/19/l...