Tobias Tober
@tobiastober.bsky.social
Comparative political economy @unikonstanz.bsky.social • European integration, technological change, green transition, welfare state, Bayesian statistics.
https://tobiastober.github.io
https://tobiastober.github.io
Cool paper, @nilsblossey.bsky.social!
NEW -
Austerity and Social Spending: Estimating the Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Adjustment - cup.org/4oAi3MF
"Ageing populations and slower growth have compelled governments in mature welfare states to implement fiscal adjustments"
- @nilsblossey.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Austerity and Social Spending: Estimating the Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Adjustment - cup.org/4oAi3MF
"Ageing populations and slower growth have compelled governments in mature welfare states to implement fiscal adjustments"
- @nilsblossey.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
September 4, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Cool paper, @nilsblossey.bsky.social!
Reposted by Tobias Tober
The current state of AI for sustained work: exponential progress continues with no unexpected leaps but also no walls.
(The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect)
metr.org/blog/2025-03...
(The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect)
metr.org/blog/2025-03...
August 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The current state of AI for sustained work: exponential progress continues with no unexpected leaps but also no walls.
(The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect)
metr.org/blog/2025-03...
(The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect)
metr.org/blog/2025-03...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Irritating Discourse Cliche - "The Public Are Frustrated With Mainstream Politics" - up there with vague references to "the dangers of populism".
Look at the last century of democratic politics -
* Pre WW2
* Post-War
* Post-Post-War
Look at the last century of democratic politics -
* Pre WW2
* Post-War
* Post-Post-War
July 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Irritating Discourse Cliche - "The Public Are Frustrated With Mainstream Politics" - up there with vague references to "the dangers of populism".
Look at the last century of democratic politics -
* Pre WW2
* Post-War
* Post-Post-War
Look at the last century of democratic politics -
* Pre WW2
* Post-War
* Post-Post-War
Reposted by Tobias Tober
New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. www.wired.com/story/big-te...
Big Tech Asked for Looser Clean Water Act Permitting. Trump Wants to Give It to Them
New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services.
www.wired.com
July 29, 2025 at 4:44 PM
New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. www.wired.com/story/big-te...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
July 1, 2025 at 2:44 PM
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
Cool paper showing that unemployment risks causally increase demand for welfare state insurance (in Denmark): doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
doi.org
April 18, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Cool paper showing that unemployment risks causally increase demand for welfare state insurance (in Denmark): doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
@mbusemeyer.bsky.social, @slstutzmann.bsky.social, and I have a new article in the special issue "Greening the Economy: Toward a New Political Economy" in @reggovjournal.bsky.social, now out in print.
The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...
The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...
Digitalization and the green transition: Different challenges, same policy responses?
How do citizens perceive labor market risks related to digitalization and the green transition, and how do these risk perceptions translate into preferences for social policies? We address these ques...
dx.doi.org
April 8, 2025 at 6:47 AM
@mbusemeyer.bsky.social, @slstutzmann.bsky.social, and I have a new article in the special issue "Greening the Economy: Toward a New Political Economy" in @reggovjournal.bsky.social, now out in print.
The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...
The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...
I've been a huge fan of Mr. Hussman's monthly market comments for years. Always informative and thought-provoking, he goes well beyond market analysis, weaving in broader social and economic themes. Just brilliant. Highly recommend!
The April comment includes a fresh signal from our Recession Warning Composite (which tipped on Tuesday - Wednesday just made it worse), and detailed analysis, charts, and data on markets, debt, deficits, profits, and even "waste, fraud, and abuse."
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed - Hussman Funds
In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third gre...
www.hussmanfunds.com
April 6, 2025 at 10:27 AM
I've been a huge fan of Mr. Hussman's monthly market comments for years. Always informative and thought-provoking, he goes well beyond market analysis, weaving in broader social and economic themes. Just brilliant. Highly recommend!
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Terrific lineup for our Comparative Politics & Political Economy series this summer,incl @clandwehr.bsky.social @finseraas.bsky.social @eunjikim.bsky.social @ccavaille.bsky.social @anewq.bsky.social & @valentimvicente.bsky.social . Thanks for organizing @tobiastober.bsky.social @na-wehl.bsky.social
March 31, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Terrific lineup for our Comparative Politics & Political Economy series this summer,incl @clandwehr.bsky.social @finseraas.bsky.social @eunjikim.bsky.social @ccavaille.bsky.social @anewq.bsky.social & @valentimvicente.bsky.social . Thanks for organizing @tobiastober.bsky.social @na-wehl.bsky.social
Reposted by Tobias Tober
We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!
📢Special issue and workshop on "The Politics of AI: Citizen Perceptions, Preferences, and Priorities" 📢
We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)
We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)
March 18, 2025 at 2:59 PM
We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!
We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!
📢Special issue and workshop on "The Politics of AI: Citizen Perceptions, Preferences, and Priorities" 📢
We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)
We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)
March 18, 2025 at 2:59 PM
We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!
Reposted by Tobias Tober
How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences?
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
March 14, 2025 at 8:46 AM
How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences?
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
A major update of my study:
- I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties
- I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
I'm not a China expert, just an interested observer. But if you compare how China regularly celebrates the return of successful scientists with the way science is being treated in the US under Trump, the contrast could hardly be greater.
March 12, 2025 at 7:50 AM
I'm not a China expert, just an interested observer. But if you compare how China regularly celebrates the return of successful scientists with the way science is being treated in the US under Trump, the contrast could hardly be greater.
Reposted by Tobias Tober
“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?”
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
March 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM
“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?”
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
"It would be a great mistake for U.S. policymakers to ignore DeepSeek or to suggest that its accomplishments are merely a combination of [IP] theft and misleading Chinese propaganda...DeepSeek has also demonstrated genuine technological breakthroughs" www.csis.org/analysis/dee...
DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race
In Gregory C. Allen’s latest report, he examines DeepSeek’s origins, achievements, and geopolitical impact, highlighting its implications for AI and semiconductor export controls. The report explores ...
www.csis.org
March 11, 2025 at 1:02 PM
"It would be a great mistake for U.S. policymakers to ignore DeepSeek or to suggest that its accomplishments are merely a combination of [IP] theft and misleading Chinese propaganda...DeepSeek has also demonstrated genuine technological breakthroughs" www.csis.org/analysis/dee...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Important: Commission plan ‘Rearm Europe’ will not require unanimity. Hungary and Slovakia cannot block it on their own
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package
We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face. Or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those
ec.europa.eu
March 4, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Important: Commission plan ‘Rearm Europe’ will not require unanimity. Hungary and Slovakia cannot block it on their own
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Trade with less developed countries reduces unionization in rich democracies. Global value chains lead to union decline even in countries with the most union-friendly institutions journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Global Value Chains and Union Decline in Rich Democracies - Matthew C. Mahutga, Manjing Gao, Roshan K. Pandian, 2025
This article reassesses the classic thesis linking the globalization of production to union decline. Our argument is three-fold. First, prior literature does no...
journals.sagepub.com
March 4, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Trade with less developed countries reduces unionization in rich democracies. Global value chains lead to union decline even in countries with the most union-friendly institutions journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Well, the next Boris Johnson column is going to be a doozy
February 28, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Well, the next Boris Johnson column is going to be a doozy
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Big tech has a tremendous impact on democracy
🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI
Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏
Details⬇️
www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...
🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI
Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏
Details⬇️
www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...
Claes de Vreese on LinkedIn: Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We…
Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We presented our new report at a public hearing in The Danish Parliament - Folketinget.
The…
www.linkedin.com
February 27, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Big tech has a tremendous impact on democracy
🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI
Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏
Details⬇️
www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...
🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI
Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏
Details⬇️
www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
Come work with us! In my research group, we have two four-year PhD positions available in comparative politics. Happy to answer questions per email. Please share the ad.
You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d...
You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d...
February 25, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Come work with us! In my research group, we have two four-year PhD positions available in comparative politics. Happy to answer questions per email. Please share the ad.
You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d...
You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d...
Erstaunlich, wie aktuell dieses Strauß-Interview von Günter Gaus—aufgenommen kurz nach der Niederschlagung des Prager Frühlings—heute wirkt: youtu.be/DI7Kw9TWS98?...
Günter Gaus im Gespräch mit Franz Josef Strauß (1968)
YouTube video by Leo Dietrich
youtu.be
February 24, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Erstaunlich, wie aktuell dieses Strauß-Interview von Günter Gaus—aufgenommen kurz nach der Niederschlagung des Prager Frühlings—heute wirkt: youtu.be/DI7Kw9TWS98?...
Reposted by Tobias Tober
DeepSunk
(Bloomberg) - Microsoft Corp. has begun canceling leases for a substantial amount of datacenter capacity in the US, a move that may reflect concerns about whether it’s building more AI computing than it will need over the long term, TD Cowen said in a report.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 24, 2025 at 3:08 PM
DeepSunk
Reposted by Tobias Tober
We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R.
yiqingxu.org/packages/fec...
Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.
yiqingxu.org/packages/fec...
Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.
February 21, 2025 at 4:41 AM
We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R.
yiqingxu.org/packages/fec...
Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.
yiqingxu.org/packages/fec...
Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.
Reposted by Tobias Tober
I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.
Diary
Week 1
open.substack.com
February 19, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.
Last week, Sharon Baute and I were honored to receive the In_equality ECR Excellence Award from @excinequality.bsky.social for our recent paper in @bjpols.bsky.social! 🎉 #HonoredToBeHonored (hashtag credit to the great Tom Waits)
February 18, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Last week, Sharon Baute and I were honored to receive the In_equality ECR Excellence Award from @excinequality.bsky.social for our recent paper in @bjpols.bsky.social! 🎉 #HonoredToBeHonored (hashtag credit to the great Tom Waits)