Thom Rawson
@thomrawson.bsky.social
Mathematical modeller / epidemiologist / ex-ecologist at Imperial College London.
https://thomrawson.github.io/
https://thomrawson.github.io/
Super thrilled to say our study "A Mathematical Model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle" is now live in Nature Comms.
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z
Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z
Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵
A mathematical model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle - Nature Communications
Influenza A H5N1 is an increasing concern in cattle herds in the United States. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to estimate the size of the current epidemic, predict states at risk in the...
doi.org
May 9, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Super thrilled to say our study "A Mathematical Model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle" is now live in Nature Comms.
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z
Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z
Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵
Reposted by Thom Rawson
Feels like people are putting a lot of faith in the fact that pandemics are rare events, often — though not always — with multiple decades between them.
Nature doesn't work on a schedule. We assume it does at our peril. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/h...
Nature doesn't work on a schedule. We assume it does at our peril. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/h...
H.H.S. Scraps Studies of Vaccines and Treatments for Future Pandemics
Federal officials cited the end of the Covid-19 pandemic in halting the research. But much of the work was focused on preventing outbreaks of other pathogens.
www.nytimes.com
March 27, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Feels like people are putting a lot of faith in the fact that pandemics are rare events, often — though not always — with multiple decades between them.
Nature doesn't work on a schedule. We assume it does at our peril. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/h...
Nature doesn't work on a schedule. We assume it does at our peril. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/h...
Reposted by Thom Rawson
🚨 New paper on ArXiv:
“Uncertainty quantification and posterior sampling for network reconstruction”
TL;DR; We present an efficient method to sample the entire ensemble of possible network reconstructions that are compatible with an indirect observation, e.g. a dynamics.
Short thread: 1/N
“Uncertainty quantification and posterior sampling for network reconstruction”
TL;DR; We present an efficient method to sample the entire ensemble of possible network reconstructions that are compatible with an indirect observation, e.g. a dynamics.
Short thread: 1/N
March 12, 2025 at 11:57 AM
🚨 New paper on ArXiv:
“Uncertainty quantification and posterior sampling for network reconstruction”
TL;DR; We present an efficient method to sample the entire ensemble of possible network reconstructions that are compatible with an indirect observation, e.g. a dynamics.
Short thread: 1/N
“Uncertainty quantification and posterior sampling for network reconstruction”
TL;DR; We present an efficient method to sample the entire ensemble of possible network reconstructions that are compatible with an indirect observation, e.g. a dynamics.
Short thread: 1/N
Reposted by Thom Rawson
Especially stoked with this week's episode of #ScienceInContext where the roles were reversed and Ryan O'Hare interviewed me about our work on the policy impact of the @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social #COVID19 Response Team
NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! Today marks 5 years since @who.int declared #COVID19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. In this episode Ryan O'Hare speaks with @eonore.bsky.social about the policy impact of @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social COVID19 Response Team 👇
youtu.be/CLGS7j9kMEM
youtu.be/CLGS7j9kMEM
Ep 115. Science in Context - policy impact with Ryan O'Hare and Sabine van Elsland (30-01-2025)
YouTube video by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
youtu.be
January 30, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Especially stoked with this week's episode of #ScienceInContext where the roles were reversed and Ryan O'Hare interviewed me about our work on the policy impact of the @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social #COVID19 Response Team
Reposted by Thom Rawson
NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with prof @thomaschurcher.bsky.social about the recent World Malaria report, #malaria control interventions, modelling and bed nets 👇
youtu.be/B0spuTWEF2c
youtu.be/B0spuTWEF2c
Ep 114. Science in Context - Malaria nets with Prof Thomas Churcher (24-01-2025
YouTube video by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
youtu.be
January 24, 2025 at 1:59 PM
NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with prof @thomaschurcher.bsky.social about the recent World Malaria report, #malaria control interventions, modelling and bed nets 👇
youtu.be/B0spuTWEF2c
youtu.be/B0spuTWEF2c
We've been running this short course for around 30 years now, while constantly updating to the cutting edge of techniques. Please do circulate to any and all interested parties, and drop me a message if you have any questions!
APPLICATIONS OPEN NOW! Always wanted to learn about applied infectious diseases modelling?
💡Annual short course 15-26th September '25
🗓️ Application deadline for limited number of full scholarships 16th March
✏️Find out more & apply www.infectiousdiseasemodels.org/index.php
💡Annual short course 15-26th September '25
🗓️ Application deadline for limited number of full scholarships 16th March
✏️Find out more & apply www.infectiousdiseasemodels.org/index.php
January 27, 2025 at 12:49 PM
We've been running this short course for around 30 years now, while constantly updating to the cutting edge of techniques. Please do circulate to any and all interested parties, and drop me a message if you have any questions!
I spoke with The I Paper just before Christmas about the continued threat of H5N1 bird flu; how unexpected the jump to cows was; and the many blind spots that exist in our understanding of pathogen "crossover".
Looking to understand the risks of #H5N1 mutating to become transmissible between humans? Jameel Institute Research Associate Dr @thomrawson.bsky.social speaks with The I Paper to explain the risks and what the UK can do to prepare.
Read here: inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Read here: inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Bird flu is one mutation from becoming the next Covid – how the UK is preparing
The UK government has ordered five million doses of an avian influenza vaccine in case it starts being spread by people as experts warn that 'blind spots' remain in science's understanding of the viru...
inews.co.uk
January 8, 2025 at 6:48 PM
I spoke with The I Paper just before Christmas about the continued threat of H5N1 bird flu; how unexpected the jump to cows was; and the many blind spots that exist in our understanding of pathogen "crossover".
Not unexpected given wild bird migrations, but didn't expect this headline!
⚠️ BREAKING:
USDA has confirmed a polar bear infected with H5N1 bird flu in North Slope, Alaska.
USDA has confirmed a polar bear infected with H5N1 bird flu in North Slope, Alaska.
December 13, 2024 at 5:40 PM
Not unexpected given wild bird migrations, but didn't expect this headline!
Reposted by Thom Rawson
NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with Patrick Doohan about Lassa fever: historic outbreaks, mathematical models & disease parameters. Why is a comprehensive overview informing future real-time analysis of Lassa outbreaks so important?
youtu.be/dZgtOgDyIUs
youtu.be/dZgtOgDyIUs
youtu.be
December 4, 2024 at 2:50 PM
NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with Patrick Doohan about Lassa fever: historic outbreaks, mathematical models & disease parameters. Why is a comprehensive overview informing future real-time analysis of Lassa outbreaks so important?
youtu.be/dZgtOgDyIUs
youtu.be/dZgtOgDyIUs
Awesome session yesterday at the first ever #London #Infection & #Ecology Network (LIEN) seminar. Met some great people, heard some terrific talks, and got to see this very cool geological map of London.
November 27, 2024 at 10:35 AM
Awesome session yesterday at the first ever #London #Infection & #Ecology Network (LIEN) seminar. Met some great people, heard some terrific talks, and got to see this very cool geological map of London.
"Forecasters criticised".
As Prof. Ralf Toumi explained in our climate and health #podcast episode - extreme weather due to climate change is incredibly hard to predict. It's not just damaging, but we can't accurately predict it!
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
As Prof. Ralf Toumi explained in our climate and health #podcast episode - extreme weather due to climate change is incredibly hard to predict. It's not just damaging, but we can't accurately predict it!
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
Storm Bert: forecasters and politicians criticised after devastating floods
Critics claim warnings and defences were inadequate but Met Office says storm was ‘well forecast’
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2024 at 6:35 PM
"Forecasters criticised".
As Prof. Ralf Toumi explained in our climate and health #podcast episode - extreme weather due to climate change is incredibly hard to predict. It's not just damaging, but we can't accurately predict it!
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
As Prof. Ralf Toumi explained in our climate and health #podcast episode - extreme weather due to climate change is incredibly hard to predict. It's not just damaging, but we can't accurately predict it!
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
Reposted by Thom Rawson
this is why the most powerful undergraduate degree you can get is in film. learning how to properly watch a movie about a job means you can convincingly do the job when the time comes
exactly. a humanities degree is ideally supposed to be about developing a well-rounded citizen, but it also works quite well in the job market by teaching you skills that are broadly relevant in all kinds of fields rather than narrow technical expertise bsky.app/profile/wiki...
The first like 5 years after I graduated I thought it was the height of stupidity that I majored in English just because I like reading. Now I consider it one of the best decisions I ever made.
November 25, 2024 at 3:16 PM
this is why the most powerful undergraduate degree you can get is in film. learning how to properly watch a movie about a job means you can convincingly do the job when the time comes
I've been seeing this "risk increases 5-fold this winter" stat a lot. H5N1 obviously a big threat, but this specific stat is very misleading.
That is a five-fold increase compared to the summer, and based on a non-peer-reviewed model. Basically just "more flu in winter".
That is a five-fold increase compared to the summer, and based on a non-peer-reviewed model. Basically just "more flu in winter".
Europe tightens H5N1 surveillance as winter flu season looms.
The risk of H5N1 combining with other influenza viruses is predicted to soar by five-fold this winter.
Full story below ⬇️
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-healt...
The risk of H5N1 combining with other influenza viruses is predicted to soar by five-fold this winter.
Full story below ⬇️
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-healt...
Europe tightens H5N1 surveillance as winter flu season looms
The risk of H5N1 combining with other influenza viruses is predicted to soar by five-fold this winter
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 25, 2024 at 12:57 PM
I've been seeing this "risk increases 5-fold this winter" stat a lot. H5N1 obviously a big threat, but this specific stat is very misleading.
That is a five-fold increase compared to the summer, and based on a non-peer-reviewed model. Basically just "more flu in winter".
That is a five-fold increase compared to the summer, and based on a non-peer-reviewed model. Basically just "more flu in winter".
Didn't feel a thing during this year's #flu shot. Asked the doctor why some shots hurt more than others. She explained the trick is about finding "...the juiciest part of the muscle."
November 22, 2024 at 5:14 PM
Didn't feel a thing during this year's #flu shot. Asked the doctor why some shots hurt more than others. She explained the trick is about finding "...the juiciest part of the muscle."
Reposted by Thom Rawson
A group of us have been working on creating a repository of models and epidemiological parameters ready-to-use in future epidemics, with a focus on high-threat pathogens. Today our Lassa review is out: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti.... More on the overall project here: bit.ly/imperial-PERG
Lassa fever outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Understanding the epidemiological parameters and transmission dynamics of Lassa fever, a significant public health threat in west Africa caused by the…
www.sciencedirect.com
November 21, 2024 at 11:33 AM
A group of us have been working on creating a repository of models and epidemiological parameters ready-to-use in future epidemics, with a focus on high-threat pathogens. Today our Lassa review is out: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti.... More on the overall project here: bit.ly/imperial-PERG
Reposted by Thom Rawson
Pennsylvania will now require precautionary bulk testing of milk for bird flu from dairy farms as an added measure to prevent the spread of H5N1 bird flu, according to Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding.
November 20, 2024 at 7:32 PM
Pennsylvania will now require precautionary bulk testing of milk for bird flu from dairy farms as an added measure to prevent the spread of H5N1 bird flu, according to Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding.
Deeply insightful (and sobering) panel discussion right now in @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social Jameel Institute event on healthcare priorities in conflict settings. Including Rachael Cummings, Save the Children's Humanitarian Director, remotely joining from Gaza.
#healthsystems #publichealth
#healthsystems #publichealth
November 20, 2024 at 12:48 PM
Deeply insightful (and sobering) panel discussion right now in @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social Jameel Institute event on healthcare priorities in conflict settings. Including Rachael Cummings, Save the Children's Humanitarian Director, remotely joining from Gaza.
#healthsystems #publichealth
#healthsystems #publichealth
November 20, 2024 at 11:40 AM
Want to listen to a great #epidemiology / #PublicHealth #science #podcast ?
Might I then recommend JameelCast? Our podcast short series showcasing the work being done within Imperial College's Jameel Institute!
Aimed at a general audience, web link here: jameelcast.pinecast.co
Might I then recommend JameelCast? Our podcast short series showcasing the work being done within Imperial College's Jameel Institute!
Aimed at a general audience, web link here: jameelcast.pinecast.co
JameelCast
This limited series showcases the latest developments in the world of public health, and the contributions from Imperial College London's Jameel Institute.
The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people ...
jameelcast.pinecast.co
November 19, 2024 at 12:27 PM
Want to listen to a great #epidemiology / #PublicHealth #science #podcast ?
Might I then recommend JameelCast? Our podcast short series showcasing the work being done within Imperial College's Jameel Institute!
Aimed at a general audience, web link here: jameelcast.pinecast.co
Might I then recommend JameelCast? Our podcast short series showcasing the work being done within Imperial College's Jameel Institute!
Aimed at a general audience, web link here: jameelcast.pinecast.co
Introduction Post:
I'm Thom, I'm a mathematician by training, and I work on modelling a variety of infectious diseases within Imperial's @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social 😷🦠
In general, my work is about squeezing sparse datasets for any details they're hiding.
I'm Thom, I'm a mathematician by training, and I work on modelling a variety of infectious diseases within Imperial's @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social 😷🦠
In general, my work is about squeezing sparse datasets for any details they're hiding.
November 19, 2024 at 12:05 PM
Introduction Post:
I'm Thom, I'm a mathematician by training, and I work on modelling a variety of infectious diseases within Imperial's @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social 😷🦠
In general, my work is about squeezing sparse datasets for any details they're hiding.
I'm Thom, I'm a mathematician by training, and I work on modelling a variety of infectious diseases within Imperial's @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social 😷🦠
In general, my work is about squeezing sparse datasets for any details they're hiding.