Steven Toft
@steventoft.bsky.social
Reposted by Steven Toft
This is very good.
And I think he might be right.
And I think he might be right.
My Sunday Times piece, in which I try gently to counter some of the gloom surrounding the economy:
Whisper it, but the UK economy may be starting to turn a corner
www.thetimes.com/article/f04b...
Whisper it, but the UK economy may be starting to turn a corner
www.thetimes.com/article/f04b...
Whisper it, but the UK economy may be starting to turn a corner
The UK economy isn’t out of the woods but the London market is up against New York, jobs are holding up, defence is set for a boost and EU relations may improve
www.thetimes.com
March 23, 2025 at 7:56 AM
This is very good.
And I think he might be right.
And I think he might be right.
This event was scheduled for March 2025 about 10 months ago. We'd already identified geopolitical instability as a theme. Even so, we hadn’t quite anticipated the speed and magnitude of the events of the last two months.
www.parcentre.com/research-and...
www.parcentre.com/research-and...
Future Organisations - PARC
New Years Day 2025 marked the mid-point of the 2020s and there is every indication that the second half of the decade will be as tumultuous as the first. When we scheduled an event to look at the chal...
www.parcentre.com
March 20, 2025 at 9:42 AM
This event was scheduled for March 2025 about 10 months ago. We'd already identified geopolitical instability as a theme. Even so, we hadn’t quite anticipated the speed and magnitude of the events of the last two months.
www.parcentre.com/research-and...
www.parcentre.com/research-and...
February 25, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Reposted by Steven Toft
The annual @theifs.bsky.social report on education spending is out. I've always found it incredibly useful so really pleased that @nuffieldfoundation.org fund it.
Here's spending by educational stage over the last 35 years. So many policy stories in a single chart.
ifs.org.uk/publications...
Here's spending by educational stage over the last 35 years. So many policy stories in a single chart.
ifs.org.uk/publications...
January 10, 2025 at 3:26 PM
The annual @theifs.bsky.social report on education spending is out. I've always found it incredibly useful so really pleased that @nuffieldfoundation.org fund it.
Here's spending by educational stage over the last 35 years. So many policy stories in a single chart.
ifs.org.uk/publications...
Here's spending by educational stage over the last 35 years. So many policy stories in a single chart.
ifs.org.uk/publications...
Reposted by Steven Toft
Reposted by Steven Toft
The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better.
All three statements are true at the same time. Understanding this is key to solving big global problems.
We believe data & research can help us understand both the problems we face & the progress that’s possible. 🧵
All three statements are true at the same time. Understanding this is key to solving big global problems.
We believe data & research can help us understand both the problems we face & the progress that’s possible. 🧵
December 10, 2024 at 1:05 PM
The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better.
All three statements are true at the same time. Understanding this is key to solving big global problems.
We believe data & research can help us understand both the problems we face & the progress that’s possible. 🧵
All three statements are true at the same time. Understanding this is key to solving big global problems.
We believe data & research can help us understand both the problems we face & the progress that’s possible. 🧵
Reposted by Steven Toft
Thanks @hrhour.bsky.social for bringing back the chat !! It's wonderful to see the #HRCommunity start to rekindle, connect and reconvene. We're so much better as a profession and as individuals when we're connected. That will remain true for 25 years and beyond !! #HR #GlobalHR #HRHour
a woman in a striped shirt has her eyes closed and says beyond
ALT: a woman in a striped shirt has her eyes closed and says beyond
media.tenor.com
January 9, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Thanks @hrhour.bsky.social for bringing back the chat !! It's wonderful to see the #HRCommunity start to rekindle, connect and reconvene. We're so much better as a profession and as individuals when we're connected. That will remain true for 25 years and beyond !! #HR #GlobalHR #HRHour
Interested in your thoughts on this @robbriner.bsky.social @robmccargow.bsky.social @mervyndinnen.bsky.social @mjcarty.bsky.social @dds180.bsky.social
Fascinating paper on the impact of ChatGPT on organisations, by Jana Retkowsky, Ella Hafermalz, Marleen Huysman. 🧵
Unlike the classic IT implementations that most of us have been used to, ChatGPT is being implemented by employees on an ad hoc basis.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Unlike the classic IT implementations that most of us have been used to, ChatGPT is being implemented by employees on an ad hoc basis.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Managing a ChatGPT-empowered workforce: Understanding its affordances and side effects
Generative AI, particularly ChatGPT, creates new managerial concerns. This article addresses a crucial managerial challenge: While employees are inclu…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 9, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Interested in your thoughts on this @robbriner.bsky.social @robmccargow.bsky.social @mervyndinnen.bsky.social @mjcarty.bsky.social @dds180.bsky.social
Fascinating paper on the impact of ChatGPT on organisations, by Jana Retkowsky, Ella Hafermalz, Marleen Huysman. 🧵
Unlike the classic IT implementations that most of us have been used to, ChatGPT is being implemented by employees on an ad hoc basis.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Unlike the classic IT implementations that most of us have been used to, ChatGPT is being implemented by employees on an ad hoc basis.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Managing a ChatGPT-empowered workforce: Understanding its affordances and side effects
Generative AI, particularly ChatGPT, creates new managerial concerns. This article addresses a crucial managerial challenge: While employees are inclu…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 9, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Fascinating paper on the impact of ChatGPT on organisations, by Jana Retkowsky, Ella Hafermalz, Marleen Huysman. 🧵
Unlike the classic IT implementations that most of us have been used to, ChatGPT is being implemented by employees on an ad hoc basis.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Unlike the classic IT implementations that most of us have been used to, ChatGPT is being implemented by employees on an ad hoc basis.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Steven Toft
"It’s obvious once you really think it through, but both real-world + lab results show that while people who hit it big going against the grain are the ones we turn to for wisdom on future events, overall they tend to be bad at making forecasts."
-Jerker Denrell, NYU Stern
hbr.org/2013/04/expe...
-Jerker Denrell, NYU Stern
hbr.org/2013/04/expe...
“Experts” Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky
The finding: People who successfully foresee an unusual event tend to be wrong about the future over the long run. The research: Working with Christina Fang of the Stern School of Business, Warwick Bu...
hbr.org
January 4, 2025 at 6:16 PM
"It’s obvious once you really think it through, but both real-world + lab results show that while people who hit it big going against the grain are the ones we turn to for wisdom on future events, overall they tend to be bad at making forecasts."
-Jerker Denrell, NYU Stern
hbr.org/2013/04/expe...
-Jerker Denrell, NYU Stern
hbr.org/2013/04/expe...
Reposted by Steven Toft
Very important point.
In finance, professionally, being a mostly-wrong blowhard but nailing a big one by luck is absolutely the way to go. Being thoughtful and beating chance by a bit, which is the best even the smartest can do? Boooor-iiiiing.
(What about politics? Churchill re Hitler?)
In finance, professionally, being a mostly-wrong blowhard but nailing a big one by luck is absolutely the way to go. Being thoughtful and beating chance by a bit, which is the best even the smartest can do? Boooor-iiiiing.
(What about politics? Churchill re Hitler?)
"It’s obvious once you really think it through, but both real-world + lab results show that while people who hit it big going against the grain are the ones we turn to for wisdom on future events, overall they tend to be bad at making forecasts."
-Jerker Denrell, NYU Stern
hbr.org/2013/04/expe...
-Jerker Denrell, NYU Stern
hbr.org/2013/04/expe...
“Experts” Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky
The finding: People who successfully foresee an unusual event tend to be wrong about the future over the long run. The research: Working with Christina Fang of the Stern School of Business, Warwick Bu...
hbr.org
January 4, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Very important point.
In finance, professionally, being a mostly-wrong blowhard but nailing a big one by luck is absolutely the way to go. Being thoughtful and beating chance by a bit, which is the best even the smartest can do? Boooor-iiiiing.
(What about politics? Churchill re Hitler?)
In finance, professionally, being a mostly-wrong blowhard but nailing a big one by luck is absolutely the way to go. Being thoughtful and beating chance by a bit, which is the best even the smartest can do? Boooor-iiiiing.
(What about politics? Churchill re Hitler?)
Reposted by Steven Toft
👂👂 PODCAST TIME 👂👂
me and @robarmstrong.bsky.social on:
- investors knowing nothing
- Scooby Doo
- the 'meh' trade
- bling
- bloody air fryers
open.spotify.com/episode/1ltD...
me and @robarmstrong.bsky.social on:
- investors knowing nothing
- Scooby Doo
- the 'meh' trade
- bling
- bloody air fryers
open.spotify.com/episode/1ltD...
The year ahead: tariffs, taxes and Trump
Unhedged · Episode
open.spotify.com
January 8, 2025 at 7:42 AM
👂👂 PODCAST TIME 👂👂
me and @robarmstrong.bsky.social on:
- investors knowing nothing
- Scooby Doo
- the 'meh' trade
- bling
- bloody air fryers
open.spotify.com/episode/1ltD...
me and @robarmstrong.bsky.social on:
- investors knowing nothing
- Scooby Doo
- the 'meh' trade
- bling
- bloody air fryers
open.spotify.com/episode/1ltD...
Reposted by Steven Toft
Really useful short note - on.ft.com/4fYJASI via @robarmstrong.bsky.social about the large gap between capex and depreciation in the big AI spenders. Something has got to give....
The AI arms race costs money
And rising corporate bankruptcies
on.ft.com
January 9, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Really useful short note - on.ft.com/4fYJASI via @robarmstrong.bsky.social about the large gap between capex and depreciation in the big AI spenders. Something has got to give....
Reposted by Steven Toft
Going to hell in a handcart or what? (h/t @tortoisemedia.bsky.social)
January 9, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Going to hell in a handcart or what? (h/t @tortoisemedia.bsky.social)
Reposted by Steven Toft
Worse, if you read further she didn’t even ask for the whip to be restored but the Tory team have decided to make a story about it to make her look bad
January 8, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Worse, if you read further she didn’t even ask for the whip to be restored but the Tory team have decided to make a story about it to make her look bad
Reposted by Steven Toft
"Nearly 4,000 staff at HM Land Registry will refuse to cover for colleagues or take on any extra work which they consider to be beyond their job description from Jan 21. The backlash is over a demand to return to the office for three days", the Telegraph reports.
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Thousands of civil servants to strike ‘indefinitely’ over back-to-office demand
Staff at HM Land Registry will not cover for colleagues or take on extra work from Jan 21
www.telegraph.co.uk
January 9, 2025 at 7:22 AM
"Nearly 4,000 staff at HM Land Registry will refuse to cover for colleagues or take on any extra work which they consider to be beyond their job description from Jan 21. The backlash is over a demand to return to the office for three days", the Telegraph reports.
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Reposted by Steven Toft
“Musk has seemingly become the first tech leader to fall down the rabbit hole of radicalisation by his own product”
How Elon falls for the clickbait served up by his own 'For You' algo feeds. Great piece by my colleagues, worth sticking around for the mind-boggling final line:
on.ft.com/3C0o9CA
How Elon falls for the clickbait served up by his own 'For You' algo feeds. Great piece by my colleagues, worth sticking around for the mind-boggling final line:
on.ft.com/3C0o9CA
How a handful of X accounts took Elon Musk ‘down the rabbit hole’ on UK politics
[FREE TO READ] Tech billionaire’s posts about grooming gangs scandal have elevated issue
on.ft.com
January 8, 2025 at 2:04 PM
“Musk has seemingly become the first tech leader to fall down the rabbit hole of radicalisation by his own product”
How Elon falls for the clickbait served up by his own 'For You' algo feeds. Great piece by my colleagues, worth sticking around for the mind-boggling final line:
on.ft.com/3C0o9CA
How Elon falls for the clickbait served up by his own 'For You' algo feeds. Great piece by my colleagues, worth sticking around for the mind-boggling final line:
on.ft.com/3C0o9CA
